The General Administration of Custom of China published the latest set of trade figures. Trade surplus for September decreased 18% from US$17.76 billion in August to US$14.51 billion vs. consensus of US$16.9 billion. On an year-on-year basis, the surplus decreased by 13.2%.
Exports jumped 17.1% from a year earlier to US$169.67 billion vs. market expectation of a 20.8% rise, while imports increased by 20.9% from a year earlier to US$155.2 billion vs. market expectation of a 24.6% rise. On seasonally adjusted basis, exports grew by 18.9% yoy, while imports grew by 24.9% yoy.
On a month-on-month basis, exports decreased by 2.1%, while imports decreased by 0.3%.
This data set is pretty unimpressive. Import, export and trade balance growth all missed expectations. Slowing export growth has been a slow, underlying trend. With slowing global economy that should not be too surprising, and it is expected to continue if the outlook continues to deteriorate. On the import side, the trend is not looking particularly good either, possibly an indication that internal demand has also weakened somewhat.