Last night, Zero Hedge ran an interesting post looking at the long term relationship between US GDP and employment growth. I have reproduced one chart and added a few of my own. The results are sobering. First, the history of US GDP:
That gives some idea of just how sub-par this US recovery has been in the post-war era, especially given the extraordinary amount of stimulus. Next up, how GDP leads employment:
Or, looking at what matters most, GDP and private payrolls:
If prior relationships hold, either Y/Y employment is going to fall very fast or GDP is going bounce very hard.
According the Zero Hedge post:
Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession.
I know these are extraordinary times and lots of rules have been broken but I would treat this rally with care.