Employment trend at zero

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Well…there is now no doubting the message that the NAB Business survey employment index and the recent turn in the ANZ job ads survey have been sending: employment has softened considerably.

Today’s employment data was up 7,800 in May against the markets expectation of +25,000. But the sting was both in the break up between full time and partime with the former dropping 22,000 while the later rose 29,800. This shift between fulltime and part time speaks of lower incomes and is not good for economic growth if sustained.

But the key point is the one we made at the start of this blog. Employment conditions have softened materially over recent months and now the market is starting to realise it. 

The above chart shows the monthly data, with the downward revisions to April and crucially the trend in employment growth which is now zero. Some boom.