While Trump officially kills TPP, Turnbull continues farce

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By Leith van Onselen

As promised, one of President Trump’s first acts on taking office has been to kill-off the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. From The ABC:

The new US administration of President Donald Trump has said its trade strategy to protect American jobs would start with withdrawal from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact.

A White House statement issued soon after Mr Trump’s inauguration said the United States would also “crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process”…

“For too long, Americans have been forced to accept trade deals that put the interests of insiders and the Washington elite over the hard-working men and women of this country,” it said.

“As a result, blue-collar towns and cities have watched their factories close and good-paying jobs move overseas, while Americans face a mounting trade deficit and a devastated manufacturing base”…

Still, the Turnbull Government continues to farcically push for the ratification of the TPP by the Australian parliament. From The Australian:

Trade Minister Steve Ciobo met six of the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s 12 signatories at an international forum over the past week to discuss other options.
But he continues to espouse the TPP’s benefits.

“The Turnbull government does not shy away from standing up for what is in our national interest. Continuing our strong advocacy on the benefits of the TPP is no different,” Mr Ciobo said in a statement on Sunday.

“The TPP is too important as a driver of the creation of more Australian jobs not to do all we can to see the agreement enter into force”…

Mr Ciobo has indicated Australia will push forward with ratifying the TPP anyway.

“It would be a clear statement from the Australian parliament that we reject protectionism and that open markets are the path to long-term sustainable job creation,” he said.

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Under the terms of the TPP, the deal cannot proceed without the US’ participation. This is because 85% of the combined GDP of member nations must remain in tact for the TPP to proceed.

The farcical actions of the Turnbull Government in continuing to promote the deal were picked-up by The Australian’s Judith Sloan, who noted the following over the weekend:

A clear illustration of the extent to which the Prime Minister has lost his way in the new environment was his bizarre attempt during the week to use the dead-on-arrival Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement as a means of wedging Labor and the Greens. If he had been paying attention, he might have cottoned on to the fact both candidates for the US presidency — Trump and Hillary Clinton — opposed the TPP.

And his justification for spruiking a dead cat was extremely unconvincing… we should not overlook that there were some contentious clauses in the TPP, such as the investor-to-state resolution clauses — something the US insisted be included in the early negotiations — and the extension of copyright and patent protections, which mainly would benefit the US.

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Ciobo’s argument that the TPP represents some kind of jobs bonanza for Australia is also not backed up by evidence. Modelling by the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University found that the TPP “would lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality”, with employment in Australia estimated to contract by 39,000 jobs:

ScreenHunter_11148 Jan. 21 09.28

Why is the Turnbull Government continuing to waste everyone’s time by trying to ratify a deal that can never proceed, and which offers little (if any) benefit to Australians anyway?

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.