Australian Property


CLSA sees Perth, Brisbane property collapse

From The Australian comes the excellent Brain Johnson: Ahead of CBA’s (CBA) highly-anticipated annual profit next week, CLSA analyst Brian Johnson today told clients he was concerned the housing market will become “bifurcated”, with Sydney and Melbourne remaining “uber-expensive” while Brisbane and Perth were “vulnerable to a regional collapse akin to the Queensland’s Gold Coast


Alarm bells ring for off-the-plan apartment buyers

By Leith van Onselen Duncan Hughes at The AFR has offered another warning on how the investor-led housing boom is on borrowed time following the effective speed limit placed on investor mortgage growth by APRA, APRA’s higher capital requirements on the banks’ mortgage books, and the tougher lending policies already implemented by the banks: Real


Cut property investor concessions to save Budget $9b

By Leith van Onselen In news that is sure to embarrass Treasurer Joe Hockey, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) – a body set up in 2012 to provide independent and non-partisan analysis of budget matters – has found that limiting negative gearing to new builds and cutting the capital gains tax (CGT) discount would save


No fire sale for AOFM RMBS

From Banking Day: The Australian Office of Financial Management will not conduct a fire sale to meet the Government’s deadline for divestment of its holdings of residential mortgage-backed securities. In the May Budget the Government announced that the AOFM would divest its RMBS holdings, valued at A$4.6 billion at the time. The AOFM’s plan is


REIWA shocked (SHOCKED!) by Perth price falls

By Leith van Onselen Back in June, Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) chief, David Airey, made a goose of himself when he declared that Perth housing was set to boom, whilst heaping vitriol on us East Coasters predicting heavy falls as mining busts and the dwelling construction boom unwinds: “Given the sustained period of


Joe Hockey lies again about negative gearing

By Leith van Onselen The negative gearing ‘whack-a-mole’ continues, with Treasurer Joe Hockey repeating the lie over the weekend that negative gearing is being used primarily by ordinary workers. From The Australian: In his strongest warning yet against changing the tax breaks, the Treasurer told The Weekend Australian there was “no merit” to amending the


Auction clearances slowly descend from orbit

Core Logic-RP Data released its auction market report yesterday, which revealed a small decline in the national auction clearance rate. The preliminary national clearance rate was 75.7%, down from the 77.7% rate recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data: Sydney’s clearance rate fell by 3.9% to 78.8%, whereas Melbourne’s was 76.8%, up from the


Why Syd/Melb housing is highly overvalued

By Leith van Onselen The AFR’s Chris Joye has posted an excellent article this afternoon effectively debunking the RBA’s Dr Peter Tulip, who earlier this month ridiculously claimed that Australian housing was 30% undervalued. In the article, Joye reviews new housing valuation analysis produced by Dr Craig Shepherd, an economist with the $10 billion fund


Investor lending sucks finance from businesses

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of June: A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below: Personal credit growth (0.1% MoM; -0.2% QoQ; 0.4% YoY) remains in the gutter, whereas business credit growth (0.0% MoM; 0.3%


RP Data: Home values rocket 2.8% in July

By Leith van Onselen RP Data’s price results are in for July, with the Sydney/Melbourne bubbles blowing-off in a big way as the daily index recorded a 2.80% jump in values over the month at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Adelaide recording gains (see next chart). The strong recovery in home values


ASIC flags crackdown on investor mortgage lending

By Leith van Onselen The noose is tightening further around property investors, with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) flagging that it will tighten lending standards on investor mortgage lenders. From The Australian: ASIC chairman Greg Medcraft… [said a] probe into the underwriting standards of a sample of 11 financial institutions had uncovered unacceptable


Dwelling approvals signal end to construction boom

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of June. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally adjusted 8.2% to 17,868. The overall fall was driven by the volatile unit and apartment segment, which slumped by 20.4% in June.


Chinese “frustrated” at foreign owners debate

By Leith van Onselen Wayne Tseng, founder of the Chinese Chamber of Property Investors, which represents Chinese property investors – both local and foreign – has raised concern at the blame being heaped upon Chinese investors for inflating property values and pricing-out locals. From The Herald-Sun: Mr Tseng said members of the community felt “frustrated”