Australian Property

Viewing posts in the Australian Property category

REINSW slams RBA’s jekyll and hyde routine

ScreenHunter_4619 Oct. 22 13.57 By Leith van Onselen President of the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW), Malcolm Gunning, has this afternoon slammed the Reserve Bank Of Australia's (RBA) inconsistency on property investment, which has seen it swing from encouraging investment to being on the brink of implementing macroprudential curbs to slow the property market down. From The Australian: "Six months ago, Mr Stevens was encouraging investment in real estate," Mr Gunning said. "Now that the public is buying properties with confidence, the RBA has changed its mind and is being critical, giving warnings about...
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Rents decouple from prices, population growth

ScreenHunter_17 Jul. 16 08.30 By Leith van Onselen The September quarter consumer price index (CPI) data, released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), revealed continued moderate rental growth at the national capital city level. According to the ABS, rents nationally grew by 0.7% over the September quarter of 2014 – up slightly on the 0.6% growth recorded in June – but was only 2.5% in the year to September, with a clear downwards trend evident (see below charts). What's most interesting about the current moderate rental growth is that it is at odds with other housing-related indicators,...
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RBA warns property investors of macroprudential

ScreenHunter_4598 Oct. 22 08.18 By Leith van Onselen RBA deputy governor, Phil Lowe, gave a speech yesterday afternoon to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's 7th Annual Australasian Fixed Income Conference, whereby he expressed overwhelming frustration that the prolonged period of record low interest rates had not generated genuine productive investment, and had instead been channeled into existing assets, like property, inflating values: Interest rates are as low as they have ever been in most advanced economies... This shadow has created a difficult environment for savers and those managing savings. Perhaps at the risk...
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Dodgy Chinese money already drying up at unis?

0 From Michael Sainsbury via Crikey on the suddenly pressing Chinese anti-corruption campaign: The economic effects of the campaign are very real. Tough new laws on entertaining have hurt the hotel and restaurants industries, as well as the karaoke and hostess bars that have relied on officials spending up. One former Australian diplomat who was recently entertained in China said that toasts, which would traditionally have been made with China’s vicious local firewater baijiu, were being made with, of all things, milk -- as a beverage all but unknown in many parts of China only a few decades...
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Police set to seize dodgy Chinese assets

chinese-corruption From Fairfax: The Australian Federal Police are poised to seize assets of corrupt Chinese officials within weeks, in an unprecedented joint operation with its Chinese counterparts. In an exclusive interview with Fairfax Media, Commander Bruce Hill, the manager of the AFP's operations in Asia, has confirmed Australia has agreed to assist China in the extradition and seizure of assets of corrupt officials who have fled to Australia with illicit funds running into the hundreds of millions of dollars. The joint operation will make their first forfeiture of assets within weeks, having agreed on a...
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Keating backs macroprudential, SMSF curbs

ScreenHunter_4571 Oct. 20 08.11 By Leith van Onselen Former Treasurer, Prime Minister, and architect of Australia's compulsory superannuation system, Paul Keating, over the weekend called for curbs on self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) using leverage to invest in Australian residential property. From The AFR: [There has] been “a dramatic acceleration” in investor financing, said Mr Keating... “This is associated with the growth of self-managed super funds and their ability to borrow,” he said. “If I was treasurer today, I would be looking very hard at the whole entitlement or availability of debt to SMSFs....
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Auction clearances steady

ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12 The national auction clearance rate was essentially steady over the weekend, with small falls in Sydney and Brisbane offset by a small rise in Melbourne. According to RP Data, the national weighted average preliminary auction clearance rate was 68.5% over the weekend, which was down 0.2% from the 68.7% preliminary clearance rate reported last weekend. Sydney’s clearance rate fell by 0.3% to 75.5%, whereas Melbourne’s rose to 68.0% (last weekend 67.2%). Brisbane, which typically only has a small number of auctions, experienced an 3.7% fall in its clearance rate to 50.5%. Overall auction...
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RP Data weekend property market update

ScreenHunter_18 Mar. 18 17.58 Click to view RP Data’s latest weekly housing market update, which provides a useful snapshot of the housing market as at 19 October 2014. This week’s report includes: Latest weekly dwelling value results; Auction results & clearance rates; Latest median house & unit prices; Average time on market & vendor discounts; Mortgage market activity; and New listings...
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Refinancing: An Important Driver Of Housing Finance

ScreenHunter_4561 Oct. 17 11.38   By Martin North, cross-posted from the Digital Finance Analytics Blog We have been looking in detail at recent trends in housing refinance, by using a combination of the recently released ABS data and results from the DFA surveys. There is an interesting story to tell here. So today we explore the refinancing landscape. First the ABS data shows us that refinancing value has been increasing to a record $5.9bn in July 2014, and represents more than 30% of all owner occupied lending, and about 17% of all housing lending. We also see that the state distribution is centered on NSW and...
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Perth builds into the bust

ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 03 22.48 By Leith van Onselen The AFR is reporting today about the boom in Perth residential housing construction, which has led to mammoth demand for tradespeople and other skilled labourers, softening the blow from falling mining investment: Tradespeople are in hot demand in Perth and bricklayers and other skilled labourers struggle to keep up with residential construction demand. The busy period of house and apartment constructions is underpinned by high vacant land sales in Western Australia in 2012-13 at just over 20,000. ...The busy period of vacant land ­purchases has since subsided, with...
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SQM: Rental vacancies fell in September

ScreenHunter_07 Jul. 17 21.09 By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy data for the month of September, which registered a seasonal 0.1% fall in the national rental vacancy rate to 2.2%, and a 0.2% increase over the past year (see below table). As shown above, every capital city experienced a fall in vacancy rates over September, except for Darwin, with Darwin and Perth also up by 1.0% over the year. SQM Research’s Asking Rents Index also revealed that Landlord’s sentiment has not been increasing, with the capital city average recording a 0.2% monthly decrease in asking rental prices...
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RP Data weekly Australian house price update

ScreenHunter_15 Mar. 05 15.42 By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 16 October 2014, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose by 0.42%. It was the fourth consecutive weekly increase (see next chart). Home prices rose across all major capitals (see next chart). Values are up by 0.96% so far in October, with all major capitals except for Adelaide up (see next chart). Since the start of the year, home values nationally have risen by 7.33%, with all major capitals rising in value (see next chart). Over the past 12 months, home...
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Conflicted Xenophon responds

ScreenHunter_4542 Oct. 16 13.52 By Matt Ellis, cross-posted from the Rational Radical blog Last week I had the opportunity to speak to Senator Nick Xenophon about our petition against his plans to allow first home buyers to use superannuation funds for housing deposits. It seems he had at least taken some small notice of the widespread criticism of such a dangerous policy proposal, and has perhaps even been influenced by the 700+ emails he received on behalf of the petitioners! So thank you to those who have signed the petition so far, and if you haven’t yet, please get on board. We may well have made a very small...
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Foreign appetite for Aussie property grows

ScreenHunter_4459 Oct. 13 10.08 By Leith van Onselen NAB has released its Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey which revealed a big jump in foreign demand for Australian property. According to the survey, overall property market sentiment was unchanged in September at +19 points, with stronger house price expectations offset by weaker rental prospects. Moreover, sentiment in Western Australia plummeted to its lowest level on record (-39 points). According to NAB, foreign demand for Australian property boomed in the September quarter, with both pre-existing and new developments experiencing increases....
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Actual dwelling construction catches up with approvals

ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 03 22.48 By Leith van Onselen The ABS has released dwelling construction data for the June quarter, which registered a solid pick-up in overall construction activity despite divergence between dwelling commencements and completions. According to the ABS, the number of dwelling commencements fell by a seasonally-adjusted 6.9% in the June quarter but were up by 9.2% over the year. Detached house commencements fell by 1.1% over the quarter but were up 15.2% over the year, whereas unit commencements fell by 15.0% over the quarter but were up by 0.5% over the year (see next chart). As shown above,...
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Conflicted Xenophon revives super housing fix

ScreenHunter_16 May. 13 15.31 By Leith van Onselen It seems you cannot keep a dumb idea down, with Independent senator, Nick Xenophon, continuing to push his superannuation housing fix on Chanel 10's The Project on Monday night (video above). Under Xenophon's plan, first home buyers (FHBs) would be allowed to access their superannuation savings to pay a house deposit. As I noted back in July, when this proposal first arose, Saul Eslake’s 50 Years of Housing Policy Failure presentation showed us unequivocally that demand-side measures aimed at promoting “housing affordability” and home ownership do not work....
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The first home buyer investment boom

First-Time-Buyer-PC-Oct-2014 Cross-posted from Martin North's DFA blog: The most recent ABS data continues to underscore the fact that Owner Occupied First Time Buyers are sitting out of the market. In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 11.8% in August 2014 from 12.2% in July 2014. However, this is not telling us the full story. We have been tracking the rise and rise of first time buyers who are going direct to investment property.  The chart below shows the state of play, and the significant rise in the number of first...
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Banks ignore macroprudential threat

ScreenHunter_29 Aug. 22 11.42 By Leith van Onselen The AFR is reporting this afternoon that Australia's banks are ignoring the RBA's/APRA's threat of macroprudential limits on high risk mortgage lending, instead believing that measures are neither imminent nor needed: "There's definitely been a firming up of the regulator's language but we still think they're at a stage where they're just putting out warning messages rather than likely to intervene anytime soon," said Steven Munchenberg, CEO of Australian Bankers' Association... Without regulation, they are unlikely to voluntarily cut back on any part of that, let alone...
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Lies, damn lies, and foreign investment statistics

ScreenHunter_4459 Oct. 13 10.08 By Leith van Onselen James Laurenceson, Deputy Director and Professor from the Australia-China Relations Institute at Sydney's University of Technology, has posted an article in The Conversation lambasting anyone that dare criticise foreign investment in Australian residential real estate. Let's take a look at Laurenceson's main arguments: Despite valiant efforts by commentators such as Bernard Keane and Michael Pascoe to slay claims that Chinese buyers are making it harder for ordinary Australians to enter the housing market, the notion refuses to die. It is the “zombie idea” afflicting...
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The rise and rise of the bank of mum and dad

ScreenHunter_4470 Oct. 13 13.25 By Martin North, cross-posted from the Digital Finance Analytics Blog As part of the DFA household surveys, we segment the housing market, to identify those who want to buy and first time buyers, as well as those down trading, the affluent, suburban and seniors. We described the full segmentation recently.  Today we look at those who are trying to buy. This group has been under pressure as prices rise, incomes stall, and property supply is limited. One striking fact is the number of households in this group who are now banking with the “Bank of Mum and Dad”. The proportion of households...
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Oh, Sydney!

ScreenHunter_4462 Oct. 13 11.49 Marvel at it, peeps. In the post-GFC world, this is an increasingly rare sight. An unquestionable and out-of-control investment mania tearing the roof off. Now, if you're playing it, add a few more facts: the RBA and APRA are going to launch macroprudential tightening, probably by year end, probably targeting investors; the offshore bid isn't going to stop but it is facing a squeeze with Chinese and local authorities moving and the falling dollar hammering returns; the last time Sydney went nuts like this and authorities sat on it, prices in the outer mortgage belt crashed and the under...
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Sydney investor mortgages exit universe

ScreenHunter_4461 Oct. 13 11.46 By Leith van Onselen The speculator frenzy that has engulfed Sydney’s housing market has continued, with today’s Lending Finance data for August, released by the ABS, once again smashing all records, with both the value and proportion of mortgages going to New South Wales investors surging to another all time high. As shown below, the value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) continues to rocket, with Victoria (read Melbourne) – the second hottest market – also experiencing strong growth: According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in...
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O’Dwyer flags foreign property crackdown

ScreenHunter_4459 Oct. 13 10.08 By Leith van Onselen The chair of the parliamentary inquiry into foreign real estate investment, Liberal MP Kelly O'Dwyer, has been very vocal on the inadequacy of the Australia's foreign investment regime, last month slamming the Foreign Investment Review Board's (FIRB) lack of surveillance and enforcement, which has failed to prosecute a single non-resident buyer since 2006: What we've found out though, through the evidence that our committee has received, is that these rules have simply not been enforced through prosecution since 2006 by the Foreign Investment Review Board. I think there has...
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Investors wipe out first home buyers

url By Leith van Onselen Things have gone from bad to worse for Australia's first home buyers (FHBs), with Friday's housing finance data for August, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), revealing record investor mortgage demand amidst the share of loans to FHBs falling to an all-time low. According to the ABS, the value of investor mortgages hit a record $127.4 billion in the year to August 2014, up 29% on the year to August 2013, with the share of mortgages (excluding refinancings) going to investors also hitting a record high 47.4% over the year (see next...
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RP Data weekend property market update

ScreenHunter_18 Mar. 18 17.58   Click to view RP Data’s latest weekly housing market update, which provides a useful snapshot of the housing market as at 12 October 2014. This week’s report includes: Latest weekly dwelling value results; Auction results & clearance rates; Latest median house & unit prices; Average time on market & vendor discounts; Mortgage market activity; and New listings...
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