Australian Property

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What will pop the property bubble?

Now that it is undeniable that Australia has a raging property bubble, we’re moving into a new phase of MSM spruik that that defends the sustainability of said bubble, a permanently high plateau as it were.  Fairfax uses UBS today to suggest nothing can bring the wonder down: Overall, housing is showing some bubble-like features, but

18

Apartment surge offsets weak houses

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of May. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.4% to 19,414. The overall rise was driven by the volatile unit and apartment segment, which surged by 16.6% in May.

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UBS: Property has peaked

From the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS Macro-Prudential tightening takes effect In December APRA announced a heightened focus on sound lending practices and banks growing Investment Property Loan (IPL) credit above 10%. This was followed by a mortgage serviceability survey which found many practices that were “less than prudent”. Following communications with APRA the banks have tightened underwriting standards

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Aussie household debt ratios hit record high

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday updated its quarterly financial statistics, which revealed that Australian household debt rose to an all-time high in the March quarter of 2015. The ratio of mortgage debt-to-disposable income hit a record 142.1% in March, up from the June 2010 peak of 134.7% (see next

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Fitch: Specufestors have increased property risk

From Fitch: Investment Loan Arrears at Record Low Thanks to Current Benign Environment Investment loans are performing better than owner-occupied properties in terms of 90+ day arrears. Investment property loans’ 90+ day delinquencies are 0.81x those of owner-occupied loans, reflecting the low-interest-rate environment and the booming property market. Investment loans do not always outperform owner-occupied

0

Housing credit growth stabilises in May

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of May: A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below: Personal credit growth (-0.1% MoM; 0.0% QoQ; 0.8% YoY) remains in the gutter, whereas business credit growth (0.4% MoM; 0.6%

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Perth property already “feels like a recession”

By Leith van Onselen The Real Estate Institute of Western Australia’s (REIWA) call last week that the Perth housing market is set to soar has been given a good old fashioned reality check, with a number of property ‘experts’ claiming that it “feels just like a recession”. From The AFR: Property Council of Australia executive

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More forecasts for house price falls in 2017

By Leith van Onselen BIS Shrapnel and AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, have joined the chorus of commentators (including MB) expecting house prices to fall by 2017. From The AFR: House prices will start falling in 2016-17 as the threat of rising interest rates coincides with worsening affordability, a big increase in supply and weaker

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Debunking the property lobby’s negative gearing myths

By Leith van Onselen The Property Council and the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) enlisted ACIL Allen Consulting to write a report that attempts to debunk so-called myths that Australia’s negative gearing laws are having a deleterious impact on housing affordability and the Budget, and do nothing to boost housing supply nor improve rental

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FHBs with no deposit now take two mortgages

From News.com.au over the weekend came a new take on the extraordinary measures young Australians are taking to secure an owner-occupied home: …aspiring entry-level buyers with little or no savings behind them are relying on their parents to stump up their deposit which they are formally agreeing to pay back — with interest — while

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RP Data weekly housing market update

Click to view Core Logic-RP Data’s latest weekly housing market update, which provides a useful snapshot of the housing market as at 28 June 2015. This week’s report includes: Latest weekly dwelling value results; Auction results & clearance rates; Latest median house & unit prices; Average time on market & vendor discounts; Mortgage market activity;

5

Auction clearances stuck in stratosphere

The national auction clearance rate rose marginally over the weekend, continuing the record run of strong results. The preliminary national clearance rate was 78.0%, up slightly from the 77.7% recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data: Sydney’s clearance rate fell by 0.4% to 83.5%, whereas Melbourne’s was 78.5%, down marginally from the 79.2% clearance

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Hockey “flying blind” on negative gearing

From BS on a parliamentary exchange today: Treasurer Joe Hockey is “flying blind” on the topic of negative gearing, amid revelations the Treasury has not modelled on the impact of federal taxes on house prices, Labor MP Jim Chalmers says. …Dr Chalmers questioned the officials about Treasury’s modelling on negative gearing, noting ratings agency Moodys’

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Slowing rental market punishing landlords

By Leith van Onselen Another day, another warning about how declining rental growth and rising vacancies are punishing Australian landlords. From The AFR: Analysis of rentals and property prices shows sluggish growth – or falls – in rents because of building booms that are transforming the suburban streetscapes and skylines in many large cities… “The

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REIWA: Perth housing to boom!

By Leith van Onselen If you want a good laugh, check-out the above video featuring the Real Estate Institute of WA chief, David Airey, explaining why Perth’s housing market is set to soar: “Given the sustained period of flat market in Perth, I’d expect the Perth market to be absolutely ramping along in the next

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Aussie housing valuations at record highs

By Leith van Onselen The release yesterday of the national finance and wealth accounts for the March 2015 quarter revealed that Australian housing values are just a whisker under their all-time highs when measured against household incomes and GDP. As shown in the next chart, the ratio of total housing assets (both structures and land)

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RP Data weekly Australian house price update

By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 25 June 2015, the Core Logic-RP Data 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, jumped by 1.15% – the second consecutive rise following the typical seasonal decline in values (see next chart). Values rose across all major markets except Adelaide (see