Global Macro


Three theories behind the global productivity slowdown

Cross-posted from The Conversation: There is a wide recognition by economists and policy-makers that “the large differences in income per capita observed across countries mostly reflect differences in labour productivity”. Further, “productivity is expected to be the main driver of economic growth and well-being over the next 50 years, via investment in innovation and knowledge-based


While Trump officially kills TPP, Turnbull continues farce

By Leith van Onselen As promised, one of President Trump’s first acts on taking office has been to kill-off the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. From The ABC: The new US administration of President Donald Trump has said its trade strategy to protect American jobs would start with withdrawal from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)


Do-Nothing Malcolm continues TPP farce

By Leith van Onselen Do-Nothing Malcolm’s faux war over the dead-and-buried Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has reached farcical proportions, with the Prime Minister now claiming that Labor is risking Australian jobs by not ratifying the pact. From The Australian: The Prime Minister yesterday branded the Opposition Leader a “shallow populist” for pulling the rug


Coalition keeps flogging TPP dead horse

By Leith van Onselen Ever since Donald Trump won the November US Presidential Election it has been clear as day that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal is ‘dead, buried and cremated’, with zero chance that the new President would do a 180-degree flip and suddenly support the pact. But with some still holding-out hope


Is a bond bear market around the corner?

Bill Gross seems to think so, from his January outlook: Happiness has dominated risk markets since early November and despair has characterized global bond markets. Hope for stronger growth via Republican fiscal progress/reduced regulation/and tax reform have encouraged risk. The potential for higher inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve lie behind the 100 basis


2017 Constanza trades

From RBC: 2017 Costanza Trades It’s that time of year.  Candy canes, holiday lights, and your inbox’s are surely cluttered with 2017 “Year Ahead” pieces.  I find it hard enough to accurately prognosticate just a week or two out in these markets so I find it amazing bank research teams can predict what’s going to


Go to cash!

The USD rally sputtered last night: Commodity currencies were stronger but Aussie the weakest: Gold remains weak: Oil was soft: Base metals too: And miners: EM stocks got slammed: Though, oddly, EM high yield rallied: As did US bonds: Italian yields were stable: And stocks eased: I have no idea if the rally is due


Introducing Damien Klassen, new blogger and MB fundie

After spending the past six years focused on defining economies, markets and policy for investors, MB has decided to create a direct investment fund, for readers who would rather we manage their investments for them. This is something we have discussed for some time with readers who have responded enthusiastically (indeed it was your idea!). In conjunction


Time to get long the US inflation trade?

The USD roared Friday night. All other majors were crushed: Commodity currencies were still strong: Gold is weak and looking weaker: Brent went nowhere but it’ll rocket today: Base metals have stalled for now: Big miners fell: EM stocks fell: US high yield rose, EM fell: US bonds were flogged: European spreads widened: RBC has