by Chris Becker A non-surprising GDP print from China with official figures lining up with what the official figures want GDP to be, with reactions muted across risk markets. Only the Australian dollar made any moves on currency markets as the others prep for tonights economic data and response. Stock markets are generally in the
China’s September data dump is upon us. GDP hit 6.7% as expected (shock!) and quarterly growth came in at a pretty warn 1.8% or 7.2% annualised: Digging into the monthly data we find everything around consensus with industrial production at 6.1%, fixed asset investment 8.2% and retail sales 10.7%: Turning to more commodity-centric data, the
By Leith van Onselen Last year, the UK Conservative Government announced that it would take action to stop foreigners from buying homes with “plundered or laundered cash” as part a global effort to defeat corruption. Last week, the UK Government proposed a bill in the House of Commons to help in the fight against money
Via the AFR: Evidence is growing that global inflation is finally picking up, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch says investors need to “get real” and buy into tangible assets while rotating out of expensive stocks and bonds. The investment bank’s US-based chief investment strategist Michael Harnett said the relative price of real assets, which includes
Big Iron is off today with BHP -1.4%, RIO 0.5% and FMG flat as Dalian pukes its overnight gains at the open: Big Gas is firm with WPL 0.4%, OSH 0.8%, ORG -07% and STO 1.9% after another oil draw in the US this morning: Big Gold is off and running with NCM 2.8%, RRL
From Moody’s » Delinquencies up Australia-wide, with record highs in two states and one territory. The proportion of Australian residential mortgages that were more than 30 days in arrears (30+ delinquency rate) rose to the highest level in three years as of 31 May 2016. The increase raises the risk of mortgage defaults and is
From the ABC: Brunch-loving millennials will now be able to have their cake — or indulgent breakfast food in this case — and eat it too, with cafes across Australia introducing discounts on smashed avocado to help them save for a house. The sale comes in the wake of yesterday’s uproar over KPMG partner Bernard
Fresh from the AEMO’s investigation into the SA blackout: Pre-event The market was operating normally prior to the event. AEMO’s assessment concluded that, based on forecast conditions for Wednesday 28 September 2016, there was insufficient justification for reclassification for the loss of multiple transmission lines or generating units. The forecast severe weather was assessed as
DEEWR jobs ads for September are out and look even less august than they have for some time: Chart looks a bit toppy: Weakness was coast to coast: Thought the reliability of such a survey has to be questioned when there’s a boom in auto workers!
By Leith van Onselen Greg Medcraft, chairman of the Australian Security and Investments Commission (ASIC), appeared on Lateline last night where he attempted to defend the organisation’s impotence in policing banking malfescence. Below are the key extracts: EMMA ALBERICI: Do you believe you have the capacity and the resources to weed out bad behaviour at
From Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from +0.15% in August to +0.58% in September. The September reading is the second consecutive above trend result and follows fifteen
From APRA: The 2008 financial crisis revealed major shortcomings in the way the global financial sector managed risk. This was not solely an issue of poor risk measurement, or weaknesses in internal control structures. It also reflected deficiencies in institutions’ attitudes towards risk. In combination, a poor risk culture and weak risk management (the former
From the alleged Big Tax Dodger: BHP Billiton Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Mackenzie, said: “Full year production and unit cost guidance remains unchanged. Safety and productivity continue to improve with our new operating model helping us identify and replicate best practice more quickly. “We have seen early signs of markets rebalancing. Fundamentals suggest both oil and
By Leith van Onselen The Salvation Army has entered the debate over New Zealand’s high immigration program, releasing a report that is critical of the Government’s immigration settings and calling for a “broad public debate” around immigration: Over the past three years, we have seen record net migration that is not just the result of
From Macquarie: RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s first speech as Governor has reinforced themes around monetary policy we have been highlighting. In our view, the speech adds a dovish increment to the tilt for monetary policy in Australia. We think that the framework outlined by Lowe for how the RBA Board is considering policy,
Chinese credit numbers for September are out and it’s clear why the they’ve hit the prudential brakes. Total Social Financing was strong at 1.72tr yuan and bank loans were 1.2tr yuan. Both were well above consensus: Year on year growth is still running hot at 32%: Shadow banking is not really shrinking so convincingly any more:
By Leith van Onselen Stephen Walters, a former chief economist at JP Morgan and current chief economist at the Australian Institute of Company Directors, is the latest to warn on the budding apartment glut, predicting 10%-15% price falls and contagion to other parts of the property markets as negatively geared investors get squeezed. From The
By Chris Becker So the US CPI comes in on target, but because internals were off by 0.1%, everyone thinks the Fed will be a bit slower with their rate rise agenda, so stocks and risk were bid across the board. That’s markets for you – although better earnings in the US were also part
At The Australian we find useless: A political storm over “guns for votes” has forced Malcolm Turnbull to rule out weakening import bans on lethal weapons after the release of emails showing the government raised the prospect of phasing out a ban on a controversial shotgun in return for a key vote in the Senate. The
Iron ore charts for October 18, 2016 Do not adjust your television sets. Bulk commodites are in a full blown melt-up. Despite solid falls in Dalian yesterday, Tianjin benchmark rose 0.3% to $58. Paper then hit news highs overnight. Rebar is trailing in the wake. Coal is driving it all now and has entered a complete
By Leith van Onselen Former Treasurer, Peter Costello, is the latest commentator to question the Turnbull Government’s company tax cut policy, which has been heavily backed by the Business Council of Australia (BCA), claiming the policy lacks funding, balance or coherency. From The AFR: “You know, everybody’s looking back at the tax debate and saying,
A better evening for markets as the US dollar eased: Other majors firmed: Commodity currencies too, especially Aussie after Captain Phil first blunder: Gold jumped: Brent was stable: Base metals mixed: Big miners firm: US and EM high yield firm: US bonds were strongly bid: And shares rallied: The Q4 risk gauntlet has a very
Hooray for Brendan Grylls: This morning, Mr Grylls took aim at two key arguments against the policy — that the 1960s State agreements containing the production rental could only be changed with the agreement of the companies, and that State owed the miners goodwill for investing in the Pilbara. Mr Grylls told the audience he
By Leith van Onselen On Monday, News.com.au published the findings of CBA economist, Gareth Aird’s, excellent report warning that high population growth (immigration) is eroding the living standards of Australian households (read Aird’s report here). Strategically placed above this article was the above video featuring BusinessNow Editor and video presenter at The Australian, Chris Kohler
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy data, which registered a 0.1% rise in the rental vacancy rate across the nation in September with the vacancy rate also up 0.1% over the year (see below). As shown above, vacancies rose or were stable across all jurisdictions in August. The commodities bust
