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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker A non-surprising GDP print from China with official figures lining up with what the official figures want GDP to be, with reactions muted across risk markets. Only the Australian dollar made any moves on currency markets as the others prep for tonights economic data and response. Stock markets are generally in the

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BofAML: Sell paper, buy hard assets

Via the AFR: Evidence is growing that global inflation is finally picking up, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch says investors need to “get real” and buy into tangible assets while rotating out of expensive stocks and bonds. The investment bank’s US-based chief investment strategist Michael Harnett said the relative price of real assets, which includes

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Salt of the ponzi triggers cafe rebellion

From the ABC: Brunch-loving millennials will now be able to have their cake — or indulgent breakfast food in this case — and eat it too, with cafes across Australia introducing discounts on smashed avocado to help them save for a house. The sale comes in the wake of yesterday’s uproar over KPMG partner Bernard

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AEMO points finger at wind failure in SA blackout

Fresh from the AEMO’s investigation into the SA blackout: Pre-event The market was operating normally prior to the event. AEMO’s assessment concluded that, based on forecast conditions for Wednesday 28 September 2016, there was insufficient justification for reclassification for the loss of multiple transmission lines or generating units. The forecast severe weather was assessed as

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DEEWR jobs ads turn down

DEEWR jobs ads for September are out and look even less august than they have for some time: Chart looks a bit toppy: Weakness was coast to coast: Thought the reliability of such a survey has to be questioned when there’s a boom in auto workers!    

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ASIC head defends his impotence

By Leith van Onselen Greg Medcraft, chairman of the Australian Security and Investments Commission (ASIC), appeared on Lateline last night where he attempted to defend the organisation’s impotence in policing banking malfescence. Below are the key extracts: EMMA ALBERICI: Do you believe you have the capacity and the resources to weed out bad behaviour at

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Leading index rises again

From Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from +0.15% in August to +0.58% in September. The September reading is the second consecutive above trend result and follows fifteen

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A seventh clown joins bank bashing circus

From APRA: The 2008 financial crisis revealed major shortcomings in the way the global financial sector managed risk. This was not solely an issue of poor risk measurement, or weaknesses in internal control structures. It also reflected deficiencies in institutions’ attitudes towards risk. In combination, a poor risk culture and weak risk management (the former

2

BHP production on track

From the alleged Big Tax Dodger: BHP Billiton Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Mackenzie, said: “Full year production and unit cost guidance remains unchanged. Safety and productivity continue to improve with our new operating model helping us identify and replicate best practice more quickly. “We have seen early signs of markets rebalancing. Fundamentals suggest both oil and

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Salvation Army slams population ponzi

By Leith van Onselen The Salvation Army has entered the debate over New Zealand’s high immigration program, releasing a report that is critical of the Government’s immigration settings and calling for a “broad public debate” around immigration: Over the past three years, we have seen record net migration that is not just the result of

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Macquarie: Captain Phil lowers the bar to more rate cuts

From Macquarie:  RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s first speech as Governor has reinforced themes around monetary policy we have been highlighting. In our view, the speech adds a dovish increment to the tilt for monetary policy in Australia.  We think that the framework outlined by Lowe for how the RBA Board is considering policy,

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Apartment glut is “going to get ugly”

By Leith van Onselen Stephen Walters, a former chief economist at JP Morgan and current chief economist at the Australian Institute of Company Directors, is the latest to warn on the budding apartment glut, predicting 10%-15% price falls and contagion to other parts of the property markets as negatively geared investors get squeezed. From The

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Daily iron ore price update (full blown melt-up)

Iron ore charts for October 18, 2016         Do not adjust your television sets. Bulk commodites are in a full blown melt-up.  Despite solid falls in Dalian yesterday, Tianjin benchmark rose 0.3% to $58. Paper then hit news highs overnight. Rebar is trailing in the wake. Coal is driving it all now and has entered a complete

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Costello slams company tax cut

By Leith van Onselen Former Treasurer, Peter Costello, is the latest commentator to question the Turnbull Government’s company tax cut policy, which has been heavily backed by the Business Council of Australia (BCA), claiming the policy lacks funding, balance or coherency. From The AFR: “You know, everybody’s looking back at the tax debate and saying,

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Chris Kohler: Only the “ignorant” worry about population growth

By Leith van Onselen On Monday, News.com.au published the findings of CBA economist, Gareth Aird’s, excellent report warning that high population growth (immigration) is eroding the living standards of Australian households (read Aird’s report here). Strategically placed above this article was the above video featuring BusinessNow Editor and video presenter at The Australian, Chris Kohler

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Rental vacancy rate rises as Perth landlords hemorrhage

By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy data, which registered a 0.1% rise in the rental vacancy rate across the nation in September with the vacancy rate also up 0.1% over the year (see below). As shown above, vacancies rose or were stable across all jurisdictions in August. The commodities bust