Selling the farm

By Leith van Onselen Chanel 7’s Sunday Night program aired an interesting investigative report on the widespread sale of Australian agricultural land to foreign interests, particularly the Chinese (Parts 1&2 are above). According to the report, there is no comprehensive national list of foreign investment in rural land. However, in Queensland, which does maintain a

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How endless population growth makes us poorer

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Ross Gittins has posted a cracking article today lambasting Australian economists’ blind faith in endless population growth and a “Big Australia”, arguing that it is a recipe for lower living standards: Slower population growth meant slower growth in real gross domestic product and this would also make it harder to


Greece says “no” in landslide

With 60% of the Greek referendum vote counted it appears to be over: Who could have known that a sovereign people would tell a foreign power with whom they were previously at war to shove their blackmail demands? Here is Deutsche with where we go from here: NO, Scenario #N1. Soft deal This, in our


Shocks line up to sink Australia

A triple-headed risk is suddenly bearing down on the global economy as Grexit, the Chinese structural adjustment and US tightening combine to threaten a perfect storm. Each represents a different kind of shock but all three share one characteristic; they are attempts by large economies to exit extraordinary GFC stimulus: Europe is ending the farce that internal deflation can repair peripheral


But Greece doesn’t matter…

You can always tell that the Australian economy is really at risk when Ross Gittins resumes the campaign for national ignorance: We’re still learning to cope with a globalised world. Things work a bit differently now, and we have to adjust our thinking accordingly. Globalisation – the breaking down of barriers between countries – is leading to


Mortgage Choice sees macroprudential bite

From the AFR: One of the country’s biggest mortgage brokers, Mortgage Choice, says the clampdown on lending to landlords has dragged property investors’ share of its loan approvals to a 20-month low. In a sign banks’ tighter credit standards are having some impact, Mortgage Choice says the proportion of its loan approvals going to property investors fell from 34 per cent in May to


Auction clearances still stuck in orbit

Core Logic-RP Data released its auction market report last night, which revealed that the national auction clearance rate rose ever so marginally over the weekend, continuing the record run of strong results. The preliminary national clearance rate was 78.1%, up slightly from the 78.0% recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data: Sydney’s clearance rate


Ergas detonates under negative gearing

By Leith van Onselen Another day, another spurious defence of negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount. This time from The Australian’s Henry Ergas, who has written a vitriolic piece attacking the Grattan Institute’s John Daley and Daniel Wood. Let’s take a look at his key points. First, tax efficiency: To repeat, for the benefit


Perth’s last property bull standing

By Leith van Onselen The property industry in Perth are getting desperate. Following the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia’s (REIWA) delusional call a few week’s back that the Perth housing market is set to soar, one of Western Australia’s top valuers claims an opportunity is emerging for astute buyers to get into the Perth market


The Abbottalypse rolls on

No change, really, in today’s polls. Newspoll has the Government trailing labour 48-52: Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has improved its two-party-preferred lead from 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in the middle of last month to 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent at the


Only government buying can save China stocks

From BofAML: Bottom likely when govt becomes buyer of last resort After reaching a peak of 5,166 on Jun 12, SHCOMP declined sharply by almost 30% to 3,687 within three weeks. The ferociousness of the sell-off even took us by surprise – although we have a 3,600 target for the index, we thought it would


Links 6 July 2015

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Stock Market Crash of 1929 – themoneyalert.com Currency is not destiny – VOX The market economy’s stability – VOX North America: No, Puerto Rico Isn’t Greece – New York Times The Broker Who Saved America – Reformed Broker The Bonds That Broke Puerto Rico – New York Times


Your Greek primer

It appears the Greek referendum that begins today is too close to call: From Credit Suisse via Forexlive here’s the scenarios: 1- “Victory of the “No” camp, would immediately cast markets in uncharted territory. The vote alone might not necessarily trigger a systemic reaction, but we would expect the increase in uncertainty to weigh on


Weekend Links 4-5 July, 2015

  China China’s stocks hit critical low despite government lifelines – SCMP Nearly quarter of Chinese investors ‘suffer over 50 per cent losses’ as stock market slumps, survey suggests – SCMP Gov’t Once Again Tries to Pull Stock Market out of Nosedive – Caixin Share Price Tumble Puts Tycoon Linked to Fallen Officials, Businessmen in


ASX at the close

Stan Shamu for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets Calm before the storm As we head into the referendum, it seems investors are growing increasingly nervous and this is being reflected in the price action. US markets are closed on Friday and focus was mainly on the US non-farm payrolls report, which came


When will the US begin normalising rates?

From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke: As the pivotal September FOMC meeting draws ever closer, the magnitude and quality of job gains becomes all the more important. Key from the June post FOMC meeting press conference of Chair Yellen was: (1) her strong belief that labour market conditions had improved markedly in recent years; (2) equally that


Australian dollar smoked into 75s

Along with iron ore and Shanghai, the Australian dollar is getting smoked to mid-April lows in the 75.70s: That chart is one hideous bearish descending triangle. The intra-day low was in early April at $75.29 but we’re already below the lowest closing low for the entire great sell off. Just in time to rub it


BHP, RIO, FMG tank with futures

It’s awwn. BHP is down 2.5% and vectoring for more. RIO is down 1.5% and vectoring for more. FMG is down 6% and vectoring for more. To the indexes: The big iron idiocy spreads are closing again. FMG is soaring towards sanity: Juniors are serene in death:   Dalian is getting smoked with rebar futures