Weekend Links – Father’s Day Weekend 2015

Bills, bills, bills. One is born, one runs up bills, one dies. What have I got to show for it? Nothing. A butler’s uniform and a slightly effeminate hairdo. Sometimes I feel like a pelican – whichever way I turn I still have an enormous bill in front of me. – Black adder Asia Awe

Latest posts


ASX at the close

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets There has been no clear rhythm or reason behind moves in Asia today, with traders massaging portfolios ahead of today’s US payrolls report. EUR/USD has stabilised into the $1.1100 area today and has seen modest short covering after Mario Draghi laid the foundation for additional asset purchases.


Straya: world’s biggest gambler

by Chris Becker Time to double down and buy casinos and pokie operators (Woolworths is the biggest if you didn’t know already), as news from The Economist paints an ugly picture of Australian society: Thankfully the stats don’t include punting on house prices, otherwise what an embarrassment. But in all seriousness, pokie machines – which make


A nation of brutes and cowards

by Chris Becker Europe’s burgeoning refugee crisis is putting the spotlight on David Cameron’s conservative UK government approach, which has been mentioned as “Australia-lite”. Or in other words, constrained brutality with a pinch of indifference. This has changed in recent days as the spectre of seeing dead children wash up on Turkish beaches and scenes


Govt accused of “double dipping” into $680m ASIC fee chest

By Nathan Lynch, Head Regulatory Analyst for Australia & New Zealand, Thomson Reuters The federal government is considering “double charging” companies for A$260 million worth of annual regulatory fees under its proposed user-pays model for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), sources have revealed. The proposed cost recovery model is designed to replace the


Chris Joye: Abbott wrong to drop deposits tax

By Leith van Onselen The AFR’s Chris Joye has slammed the Abbott Government’s decision to drop the bank deposits tax, claiming that it is at odds with moves internationally and embeds moral hazard into Australia’s banking system: So let me get this straight. After the four peak government agencies that oversee Australia’s financial system recommended


UBS: bank dividends might be under threat

by Chris Becker Ruh roh. The only sector holding up the shambles that is the ASX200 are the financials, who are under pressure from a series of diluting capital raisings and market volatility. The financials ex-property sector, or XXJ, has dropped over 22% from its March high: I’ve opined before that the bloated sector –


Australian immigration nears GFC low

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of July, which registered further falls in net long-term and permanent migration into Australia. In the year to July 2015, there were 684,060 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia – down from the record 792,500


Netflix drives drop in Australian piracy

By Leith van Onselen The entry of online streaming services like Netflix, Stan and Presto has driven a 25% drop in internet piracy, according to new research from consumer advocacy group CHOICE. From The Australian: “This proves once again that making content affordable and easily available is the first and most effective tactic to reduce


69 cents again!

by Chris Becker The AUDUSD has dipped into the 69 cent handle again, as risk markets react to the foolhardy comments of the Japanese economy minister, Akira Amari that “recent declines in stocks don’t reflect fundamentals”: We’re also down into the 83s against the Yen: As the ASX200 drops and S&P500 futures toy with breaking the uptrend


Murdoch still backing Abbott

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to the September 2013 Federal Election, Rupert Murdoch’s tabloids ran a feverish campaign backing Tony Abbott as Prime Minister: With all of the stuff-ups and gaffes that have occurred since becoming Prime Minister, one would have though that Mr Murdoch might be having second thoughts. Not so, with


Previewing US unemployment

by Chris Becker Its the biggest event on the economic calendar tonight with US unemployment rate for August, called the non-farm payroll or NFP. Its the most important because unemployment determines the fate of interest rate easing and tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Given we’ve had no rate rises for over eight years, as


Growth below 3% the “new trend”

By Leith van Onselen Professor Ross Garnaut, one of the ‘godfathers’ of Australian economics and author of Dog Days, has warned that economic growth below 3% is the “new trend” and expressed alarm that Australia’s banks remain hooked on wholesale debt markets. From The AFR: The author of Dog Days foreshadowed two years ago much


Macro Morning (ECB QEasy)

By Chris Becker European stocks led the rebound overnight as the ECB “revamped” its QE program – more debt shuffling – pushing all bourses up 2-3%. This faded after the close in futures trading as US stocks limped through a tepid session where initial jobless claims came in a little higher than expected while interest rate futures pushed


Govt urged to clean up real estate dirty money

By Leith van Onselen ABC’s The Business last night ran a segment (written report here) on the increasing international pressure on Australia to clamp down on foreign criminals laundering dirty money through Australian homes. Back in April, the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on money laundering released its scathing report on Australia, which found


FIRE sector pushes risk past GFC levels

By Leith van Onselen Wednesday’s national accounts release for the June quarter confirmed that Australia’s FIRE economy – Finance, Insurance and Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services – continues to scorch the economy, increasing its share of the Australian economy to a record 11.7% (see next chart). Since financial markets were first deregulated in the mid-1980s,


Household income holding up better than nation’s

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday released real household disposable income (HDI) data, derived from the June quarter national accounts (released Wednesday), which revealed that real per capita HDI rose by 0.1% over the quarter and was up by 0.7% over the past year (see next chart). As shown above,


RP Data weekly Australian house price update

By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 3 September 2015, the Core Logic-RP Data 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, was basically flat (-0.01%), which followed last week’s 0.40% decline (see next chart). Home values rose in Sydney and Brisbane, but fell in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth


Links 4 September 2015

Global Macro/Markets THE FAILURE OF LOW-VOLATILITY ETFS – Pieria Leveraged bubbles – VoxEU…that 1880s Australian housing bubble is dwarfed by what we now have…. Greenspans bogus conundrum – FTAlphaville China poses threat to world growth says IMF – BBC Europe/Middle East Euro area recovery with only France as laggard – Bloomberg (oh really? what about


ASX at the close

by Angus Nicholson, IG for Chris Weston Market pricing for a rate hike at the Fed’s 16-17 September meeting is steadily being unwound; it now sits at 30%. This may see an ebbing of strength in the US dollar as this repricing plays out, and after its big gains during the volatility around China’s ‘Black