Spring, James Gleeson, 1956 National Gallery of Victoria China Who is Most Dependent on China?– Bloomberg China capacity cutting efforts still lagging by end-July: media– Reuters China’s state planner calls for central bank interest rate cuts at ‘appropriate time’– SCMP U-turn by top Chinese planner gives glimpse into dispute on policy direction– SCMP
by Chris Becker Here we are at the end of the week as the risk complex positions itself for the monthly US unemployment print later tonight that will define the direction and volatility of the month ahead. In Asia today, stocks were mixed with the Nikkei falling again as the Yen remained steady, the BOJ
Cross posted from The Conversation by Stephen King Adjunct professor, Monash University Australia has many concentrated markets, dominated by a few big businesses. Should these businesses be required to actively promote competition? Australia’s current competition law says that as long as a business doesn’t use its market power in a way that is intended to
From Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans: August RBA Statement on Monetary Policy – as expected, forecasts unchanged but commentary indicates that the Bank retains an easing bias. In its Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) for August the Reserve Bank has made no significant changes to its forecasts. This is an unusual development given that it
By Leith van Onselen As suggested earlier in the week, the RBA has abandoned the Core Logic dwelling price index, which it believes is way overstated. Here’s the money quote from today’s SoMP: A range of indicators suggest that conditions in the established housing market have eased this year from very strong conditions over recent
by Chris Becker The RBA released its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy recently and its sent the Pacific Peso to a new daily high: Here are the TLDR points from Reuters, via Forexlive: RBA quarterly statement repeats policy easing to help foster growth, offers no forward guidance Underlying inflation to remain under 2 pct for much
By Leith van Onselen Nick Xenophon has hit out at the Coalition’s “free trade fundamentalism”, which he claims has sacrificed the manufacturing sector and caused angst in the community. From The Guardian: “[The] fact is our trade deficit has gone up, our current account deficit has continued to increase, we are lousy negotiators, we have
by Chris Becker I love it when the RBA Chart Pack is released while I’m here blogging full time! Charts! I understand Charts! Here’s my take on the latest release, starting with GDP growth rates, where most of the world is stuck in a new paradigm of 2% or so “growth” While India is playing
By Leith van Onselen The Bank of New Zealand’s Tony Alexander is the latest expert to question the “Unitary Plan” for Auckland’s housing market (explained last week), claiming the projected building of 422,000 houses in Auckland over 25 years is unrealistic as it requires a volume of building that previously took 161 years to achieve.
By Leith van Onselen Card-carrying Abbott loyalist, Maurice Newman, has continued his white anting campaign against Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull today in The Australian: Since last September and with each passing day, the parliamentary Liberal Party’s folly in dismissing its sitting prime minister is on display. That 54 insiders voted for a leader who, apart
by Chris Becker Outside of Australia, markets have been moving sideways and shuffling waiting for the monthly employment stats to be released tonight in the United States – the nonfarm payrolls or NFP. This is the most important event on the economic calendar, as the strength of job creation is critical to the Federal
By Leith van Onselen Following in the footsteps of ACCC head Rod Sims’ recent criticism of privatisation, former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) head, Peter Anderson, has slammed Australia’s growing number of “monopolists and exploiters”. From The AFR: “Private companies don’t help the cause when they monopolise or cannibalise markets, or structure franchise
By Chris Becker Markets last night were hinging on the release of new QE by the BOE as the not-in-Europe anymore central bank handed down a rate cut and some other measures to “cushion” the upcoming Brexit. Not quite a bazooka, but enough to dump Pound Sterling and push the FTSE to new heights. Actually,
By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government’s double dissolution election and changes to Senate voting rules has backfired big time, with the Government now facing an even more hostile and fractured Senate, with the cross-bench hitting a record 11 member compared with eight prior to the 2016 federal election. From The AFR: The Coalition finishes
by Chris Becker Last night, the Bank of England held its monthly meeting and made no surprises with the first rate cut – down 0.25% to 0.25% even – as part of a post Brexit referendum easing program. They also announced an expansion in their bond buying program (70 billion pounds) and in news that
By Leith van Onselen The AFR’s Jacob Greber posted an interesting article yesterday afternoon claiming that the cut to interest rates is Generation X’s & Y’s “revenge” over the baby boomers: It’s officially time for Gen X and Gen Y to ease up on the Baby Boomer hate. Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts are
Sound familiar? Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks Money supply is increased by banks creating money and lending it to borrowers. A lot of marginal borrowing in China is for real estate investment and consumption. Speculative credit is the most volatile. This credit creation is a self-reinforcing feedback loop. The recent economic “stabilization” efforts
In the week ended 4 August 2016, the Core Logic-RP Data 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets rose by 0.29%: Values rose in four capitals and fell in one: Since the beginning of the year, home values have risen by 6.59%, with all capitals except Perth recording increases
By Leith van Onselen Today’s retail sales figures are likely to make a slight negative contribution to Australia’s June quarter GDP when the national accounts are released early next month. As noted yesterday, monthly sales values registered 0.1% growth in June in seasonally adjusted terms and 2.8% growth over the year, with a downward trend
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for June, which continued to show a trend rise in the number of inbound tourists, with Chinese arrivals continuing to boom. The number of short-term visitor arrivals rose 0.9% in June in trend terms, whereas short-term resident departures
by Chris Becker Spot iron was pummeled yesterday, down over 3% as rebar and general steel prices fell in China: Still up nearly 40% on the year, but momentum is definitely waning for ore prices. Meanwhile, Vale – the worlds biggest iron ore producer – is considering a new deal with Chinese buyers, selling 3% of
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Paradox of Quant – The Reformed Broker Professorial salaries and research performance – VOX Nearly 1 in 100 worldwide are now displaced from their homes – Pew Research Americas: Donald Trump Is the Lone Ranger Candidate – US News Clint Eastwood Is Not Impressed by America’s ’Kiss-Ass Generation’ – Esquire Trump and Putin:
by Chris Becker Following the good lead from overnight was pretty obvious in the Asian session, with Japanese stocks rallying and the Yen weakening on the back of comments by the finance minister Ishihara saying that BOJ monetary policy has not been wrong and the government will continue to “co-operate” with its stimulus measures. It
By Leith van Onselen Amid growing pressure to conduct a Royal Commission into Australia’s banking sector, and anger over the banks’ refusal to pass on in full Tuesday’s cut to the official cash rate, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will established a parliamentary committee to scrutinise the banks’ mortgage rate decisions. From The Australian: The House
by Chris Becker With office vacancy rates at near record levels in Brisbane and Perth, and retail sales growth flagging, it’s timely that UBS has a research note out explaining that while other risky and cyclical stocks are trading below value, the defensive income side – with REIT’s leading the way – are grossly overvalued: While
