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Macro Morning (risk awwf)

By Chris Becker Risk appetites are tightening across stock markets as the latest ISM Manufacturing Index print last night and as oil prices continue to fall. A lack of inflationary pressures and stable wages are being reflected in bond markets as lower interest rate rise expectations. Greek financial markets opened for the first time in weeks and


No, Kouk, Bozo Joe will not be smiling

From the Kouk: The federal budget is less than three months old and already Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann must be smiling like Cheshire cats with several of the key economic parameters stronger than assumed by Treasury in May. The budget bottom line will be getting a revenue wind-fall from the fact


No fire sale for AOFM RMBS

From Banking Day: The Australian Office of Financial Management will not conduct a fire sale to meet the Government’s deadline for divestment of its holdings of residential mortgage-backed securities. In the May Budget the Government announced that the AOFM would divest its RMBS holdings, valued at A$4.6 billion at the time. The AOFM’s plan is


Roy Morgan unemployment 8.7% in July

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its unemployment estimate for the month of July, which registered a 0.6% fall in the unemployment rate to 8.7% from 9.3% in May. Unemployment was also down 1.5% over the year (see next chart). Here’s a summary of the release: 12,673,000 Australians are in the


On Chinese capital flight

From UBS via FTAlphaville: We think that the unwinding of earlier foreign exchange liabilities and “arbitrage inflows” by domestic entities have contributed significantly to the recent large outflows. In the few years before Q2 2014, especially during much of 2013 and early 2014, as the expectation of RMB appreciation had been strong and the onshore-offshore


Links 4 August 2015

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: How Libor whiz Rain Man became the guy everyone was going to blame – Reuters Review: ‘The Economics of Inequality,’ by Thomas Piketty – New York Times El-Erian: Why gold has lost its shine for investors – Financial Times One of tech’s biggest investors told us why he thinks


ASX at the close

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets A new week and a new month and there will be many in the market happy to see the back of July, although developed market equities generally did well. The key thematic we have been detailing of late has been an increasing focus on the start of


Few “silver linings” in youth employment recovery

By Leith van Onselen Dr Patrick Carvalho, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS), has written an interesting article at Business Spectator on the nascent recovery in youth unemployment, which is showing green shoots: …underlying data shows youth unemployment has spiked not through outright lay-offs, but due to the positive activation of


REIWA shocked (SHOCKED!) by Perth price falls

By Leith van Onselen Back in June, Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) chief, David Airey, made a goose of himself when he declared that Perth housing was set to boom, whilst heaping vitriol on us East Coasters predicting heavy falls as mining busts and the dwelling construction boom unwinds: “Given the sustained period of


Caixin China PMI deteriorates from Flash

I don’t usually bother posting on the final Caixin PMI number, only when it deviates materially from the Flash number, and it just did coming in at 47.8 in July versus a Flash reading of 48.2. July data signalled that the downturn in China’s manufacturing sector intensified at the start of the third quarter. Renewed falls in


RPData mortgage index falls sharply

From the RPData weekly property market update: CoreLogic RP Data systems monitor more than 100,000 mortgage activity events every month across our 4 main finance industry platforms. Monitoring the activity events across this platform provides a unique and timely lead indicator to housing finance commitments. The index shows an 81% correlation with the ABS housing