Weekend reading 23-24 July 2016

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: An econophysics perspective of trade liberalisation – VOX How secular stagnation spreads and how it can be cured – VOX Fracklog in the Biggest U.S. Oil Field May All But Disappear – Bloomberg The Global Economy’s Hesitation Blues – Project Syndicate When Did The Bull Market Begin? – Price Action Lab Gallo: A Link

Latest posts


Australia needs a broader innovation narrative

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The tone of commentary about the appropriateness and effectiveness of innovation as a centrepiece of Australian government policy has turned from one of enthusiasm, particularly among the start-up community, to pessimism and even rejection. Just a day after the federal election, it had already been pointed out that innovation politics had


Turnbull finally reacts to immigration debate

Better late than never, from Fairfax: The Prime Minister told Melbourne radio 3AW security arrangements at large public events will be considered. “We’ll certainly have to rethink the way we design and protect places where large numbers of Australians gather,” Mr Turnbull said. “We already have security measures in place, but the example of Nice


Cognitive dissonance reigns over housing market

The latest quarterly housing market sentiment survey by CoreLogic and TEG rewards revealed that almost two thirds of Australian’s think now is a good time to be purchasing residential property while roughly the same proportion believed the housing market is vulnerable to a significant correction. According to CoreLogic research head Tim Lawless, the latest CoreLogic


Australia should look to Germany’s rental system

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Jessica Irvine has published a ripper article today calling for broad reform of renters rights and taxation policies biasing home ownership over renting: Housing should satisfy a basic human need for shelter and security. It should suit the needs of each individual. Whether that is achieved by owning, or renting,


Life in the Chinese stimulus yet…

From Macquarie’s monthly Chinese steel mills survey: Sentiment has picked up again in the Chinese steel market according to our latest proprietary survey, helped by higher steel prices since late June. Steel mills reported better orders from both domestic and export markets over the past month, though their capacity utilisation rate was slightly lower. Although


Melbourne Lord mayor calls to curb “dog boxes in the sky”

By Leith van Onselen Back in March, Melbourne’s Lord Mayor, Robert Doyle, has labelled “shameful” the proliferation of “dog boxes in the sky”. From The AFR: “You know I am pro-development, but some of the developments that have been put before us are shameful”… “Developments that are three times the recommended height limit: it’s not


The Oz continues super dummy spit

By Leith van Onselen Another day, another dummy spit from the The Australian, whose editor has this time attacked the Turnbull Government’s proposed superannuation package on the grounds that it will discourage savings and lead more people onto welfare: Scott Morrison and Revenue and Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer are digging in against the revolt,


Ironically, bitcoin trader done for ponzi scheme

From Reuters comes the story of Texas man Trendon Shavers: Shavers, who pleaded guilty in September 2015 to one count of securities fraud and who now supports himself as a cook, said in court he had “royally messed up,” and had lost friends and embarrassed his family as a result of his fraud. …Prosecutors said from


Beef is the new iron ore!!!!!

From the AFR: Australia’s live cattle exporters could soon enjoy another surge in prices as turbocharged demand from China makes beef the new iron ore. Abattoirs on the mainland are almost ready to begin importing live cattle, a decade after Chinese demand drove iron ore prices to historic highs. The first shipments are set to


Previewing the CPI (and rate cut)

From Bill Evans at Westpac: The minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirmed the importance of next week’s June Quarter inflation report. The key sentences in the concluding paragraph of the “Considerations for Monetary Policy” section state: “The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market


Australia’s ‘dining boom’ rots on the vine

By Leith van Onselen Over the past few years, we have been sold the notion that Australia could rebalance from the mining boom with some kind of ‘dining boom’, whereby we greatly expand our agricultural exports to feed the growing middle classes of Asia. This notion was always tricky, because unlike mining – where Australia


Global lenders balk at Arrium pump and dump

From Fairfax comes a delay to the loan designed to save Arrium: The syndicate’s concerns centre on ensuring EFIC’s loan is only secured over Arrium’s Australian mining assets and not its other assets which includes a port, steel-making operations, and its successful Moly-Cop grinding balls business. “The lenders have made their position known – while some of the Australian trading banks