Weekend Links: 10-11 December 2016

Star Cycle, Donald Laycock, 1972, National Gallery of Victoria China China factory prices rise, fanning fears interest rates will increase – SCMP China steel exports set to shrink for the year since 2009 – SCMP Fears of long-term yuan weakness dampens investors’ appetite for China sovereign bonds – SCMP China’s producer price index catches a

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Asian share markets end the week on a high note as bonds sold off slightly alongside currencies as the USD firmed and gold sunk again finding no buyers. With an OPEC meeting coming up over the weekend, oil has rallied with WTI over $51USD per barrel again while Dalian commodities are down


Dalian sinks, nobody cares

Dalian is slightly off its overnight limit down effort today and not even it cares about the Chinese inflation shock on its doorstep, rising after the print: Likewise, Big Iron seems to think that nothing can stop it now with BHP -0.5%, RIO flat, FMG -0.7% and WHC -1.5%: I can only repeat, China does


Pascometer burns red on recession

Weeoo, weeoo, weeoo. The Pascometer is screaming today at Australia’s growth shocker: Treasurer Morrison labelled this week’s surprisingly low September-quarter GDP number as a “wake-up call”. What he didn’t say is that it’s a call that’s been ringing for three years. Nobody in the government bothered to answer it. Three years is how long mining


Was the ECB hawkish or dovish?

Dovish says Westpac: Ahead of the December ECB Governing Council meeting, market participants had been debating if the existing program would be sustained or tapered, or indeed whether we would have to wait until March 2017 to find out what the ECB had in mind. Thankfully, after having failed to do so in the past,


China slams brakes on outgoing investment

From Reuters: China has begun checking some outbound investment projects as part of a crackdown on illegal cross-border currency deals, Xinhua news agency reported on Thursday, citing a foreign exchange regulator. Beijing has announced a string of measures recently to tighten controls on money moving out of the country since its yuan currency skidded to more


Australia’s housing specufestors are back!

By Leith van Onselen Today’s housing finance data for October, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted big seasonally adjusted rises in both owner-occupied and investor finance commitments, with the overall trend in mortgage growth also flattening-out. According to the ABS, the total number of owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by a


ANZ joins specufestor tightening

From ANZ today: ANZ today announced its variable Residential Investment Property Loan Index Rate would increase by 0.08%pa to 5.60%pa in response to rising funding costs and changing market conditions. There is no change to ANZ’s standard variable rate for owner-occupier home loans. Fixed rates remain unchanged for both investors and owner occupiers. ANZ Group


Do-nothing Malcolm blows out carbon emissions

From The Australian: Australia is facing an energy “trilemma”, and urgently needs to implement a clear policy on reducing carbon emissions or the nation will fall well short of its Paris climate change targets. According to the ABC, the preliminary independent report into the country’s electricity market says Australia is not on track to meet


Ken Henry: Build infrastructure or population ponzi will choke us

By Leith van Onselen In 2003 I arrived at the Australian Treasury to begin my career as an economist. Upon arriving at Treasury, I was introduced to the “three P’s” framework by then Treasury Secretary, Dr Ken Henry. According to this framework, we were told that Australia must: 1) boost productivity; 2) raise workforce participation;


Victoria plans population ponzi meltdown

By Leith van Onselen Last month, Infrastructure Victoria warned that Melbourne is facing eternal gridlock as its population soars way beyond the capacity of the road system, and pushed for a new road pricing regime to better manage demand. Yesterday, Infrastructure Victoria tabled in parliament its final 30-year Infrastructure Strategy, which has made 137 recommendations


Interests swarm over dying AAA

From The Australian today: A damning Treasury-commissioned independent review of the former Labor government’s unprecedented spending response to the global financial crisis has found it was a “misconceived” waste of money, fundamentally weakened Australia’s economy, almost destroyed parts of the manufacturing sector and ­inflicted more long-term harm than good. The review is also scathing of


Canberra swamp deepens

Whoever cleans this up will be wildly popular. The latest Canberra swamp parasite is Stephen Conroy: The former minister for the digital economy will serve as executive director of a new outfit called Responsible Wagering Australia, a creation of CrownBet, Sportsbet, Betfair, Unibet and Bet365. Now even if you just spewed a bit in the


Vote in MB’s 2016 Most Sackable list

Introducing a new year end segment at MB in which we have listed our most inept individual and collective aylites for you to vote on to “fire”, Donald Trump style, for this year’s under-performance. It’s pretty simple. We’ve listed our chosen many. You choose your top five. Then we’ll publish the list in priority order next