Still think foreigners aren’t juicing house prices?

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this week, the ANZ-Property Council December quarter survey was released, which confirmed what many of us already know: that demand from foreign nationals is forcing-up prices, thereby helping to price-out young Australians from home ownership. The money chart is the one below, which shows a very strong correlation between the

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NZ begins to question the population ponzi

By Leith van Onselen When the Intergenerational Report was released earlier this year, it included the next table showing that Australia’s population growth growth was the highest in the developed world between 2005 and 2010, running at an annual average pace of 1.8%: Back in August, it was revealed that New Zealand had taken the


Is the TPP already “dead on arrival”?

By Leith van Onselen With negotiations done and dusted on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, attention has quickly turned to whether member countries will ratify the agreement, thus bringing it into force. Already in the US, opposition is mounting, suggesting that the TPP faces a difficult time getting through Congress. Yesterday, US Democratic front-runner,


Mirabile dictu: A policy election?

From Laura Tingle: [Greg] Hunt has had a busy week this week. He’s finally appointed board members to the Climate Change Authority (which suggests it might survive after Abbott’s attempts to kill it). There have been announcements about maps of the electricity grid designed to pinpoint spots where the efficiency of renewable energy investments can


Will Shorten act on Australia’s foreign labour scam?

By Leith van Onselen Amid deep concerns that the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) would allow a flood of Chinese workers into Australia, effectively surrender Australia’s autonomy over its migration laws and drive down local wages and conditions, The Australian has reported today that opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has developed a compromise that will be


Fed minutes dove up on oil

From the Fed minutes: In assessing whether economic conditions had improved sufficiently to initiate a firming in the stance of policy, many members said that the improvement in labor market conditions met or would soon meet one of the Committee’s criteria for beginning policy normalization.But some indicated that their confidence that inflation would gradually return


Daily iron ore price update (Sino money pit)

Here are the iron ore charts for October 8, 2015: Qingdao went a little crazy but Tianjin benchmark didn’t, up 0.7%to $US54.80 and under-performing the Dalian bounce. Singapore was flat and rebar immediately resumed its bleed out. We’re back from holiday and nothing has changed. In news, some new revelations about Sino Iron are pretty amazing,


Links 9 October, 2015

  Macro & Markets Oil-producing nations dip into sovereign wealth funds to fill gaps – Nikkei Asian Review $3 trillion corporate credit crunch looms as debtors face day of reckoning, says IMF – Telegraph Crude awakening: Beware oil’s ‘dead cat bounce’ – CNBC China and Europe may team up to snub TPP – CNBC Disregard


ASX at the close

Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets The better-than-expected PMI numbers and the range of new policies announced, from easing property down payments to lowering the tax rate on new car purchases, helped boost H-shares 10.5%. Expectations were high for the Chinese markets to play catch up and rally along with


The NBN could boost Australia’s GDP by 2%

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The National Broadband Network (NBN) can boost Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about 2% in the long term and, more importantly, add to our national welfare by improving real household consumption by 1.4%. These results, based on our recent research on the NBN’s economic benefit, mean the NBN will produce


Shanghai to fall further declares guru

Shanghai is up 3.23% after reopening today but that disappointed the fruit loops driving the dead cat and shares have slowed.  Meanwhile, from Bloomie: Volatility in the world’s wildest stock market is finally receding. If that’s one argument for buying Chinese shares, Bocom International Holdings Co.’s Hao Hong has a long list of reasons why you


Data retention laws introduced Tuesday

By Leith van Onselen From News.com.au comes confirmation that Australia’s controversial data retention (‘metadata’) laws will come into effect on Tuesday, despite nobody knowing the full costs involved in the scheme: The October 13 start of the Mandatory Data Retention Regime will involve details of our telephone and internet messages being stored by service providers


Glencore’s monstrous debt

From BofAML: We consider different approaches to Glencore’s debt. Credit agencies, such as S&P, start with “normal” net debt, i.e. gross debt less cash and then deduct some share (80% in the case of S&P of “RMIs” – Readily Marketable Inventories. These are considered to be “cash like” inventories (working capital) in the marketing business.


Where goes Macau casinos goes Oz property

From Fairfax: The possibility – however slight – of a meaningful crackdown by Beijing on capital outflows has prompted CLSA analysts to downgrade Australian casino operators Crown , Echo and SkyCity. “Although it remains an open question as to whether China has the will or the means to exercise such a restriction Australian casino revenues