Business indicators to drag on GDP

From the ABS comes Business Indicators for the June quarter: Real sales volumes fell in seasonally adjusted terms for both manufacturing and wholesale trade, which will drag on real GDP growth. Inventories were also flat over the June quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, below expectations of a 0.2% quarterly lift and well below the last

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Investor credit slows as APRA curbs bite

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of July: A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below: Personal credit growth (0.0% MoM; 0.4% QoQ; 0.9% YoY) remains in the gutter, whereas business credit growth (0.7% MoM; 1.2%


TD MI inflation flat as a tack

by Chris Becker The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge barely rose during August – up 0.1% after the 0.2% lift-off in July. This is going to weigh on the RBA tomorrow. Salient points from TD: In the twelve months to August, the Inflation Gauge increased by 1.7 per cent, following a rise of


HIA new home sales past peak

By Martin North, cross-posted from the Digital Finance Analytics Blog: The HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, showed a very modest decline of 0.4%. HIA say key leading indicators of home building, including HIA New Home Sales, suggest little prospect for further growth in new home construction in 2015/16.


China will not support stocks as Fed hawks spook risk

by Chris Becker Its been a dour Monday morning so far on the markets, with the AUD falling, S&P500 futures off 1% in reaction to two risk-off pieces of news coming out this weekend. This is not just early Monday morning illiquidity talking – something is spooking risk. First, everyone is talking about this cover


Will Hockey be the Government’s fall guy?

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax is running an article today claiming that Prime Minister Tony Abbott is being urged to dump Joe Hockey as Treasurer before calling an early election in March 2016, with Social Services Minister, Scott Morrison, tipped as Hockey’s replacement: Fairfax Media has been told by two cabinet ministers that talks over


7-Eleven at centre of another foreign labour rort

By Leith van Onselen A joint Fairfax-Four Corners investigation has uncovered that around two-thirds of 7-Eleven stores across Australia are ruthlessly exploiting foreign workers – many of them students – by paying them just $10 an hour and making them work long shifts without a break: Explosive internal documents reveal that between July and August this


The Coalition’s half-baked tax reform

By Leith van Onselen Federal finance minister, Mathias Cormann, has declared that the Coalition’s planned income tax cuts will not be achieved solely by cutting public expenditures, but as part of a broader reform package, possibly involving an increased GST, that would be taken to the next election. From The AFR: “That is our objective


Auction clearances lift despite high volumes

Core Logic-RP Data released its auction market report yesterday, which posted a small rebound in the national auction clearance rate. The preliminary national clearance rate was 75.4%, up from the 74.1% rate recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data:   Sydney’s clearance rate fell by 1.8% to 78.1%, whereas Melbourne’s was 77.0%, up significantly


June QTR GDP: A preview

With the June quarter national accounts due for release on Wednesday, Westpac’s Andrew Hanlan looks at the factors likely to impact the result. Westpac is forecasting a subdued 0.4%QoQ, 2.2%YoY growth in real GDP, but with flat to falling nominal GDP in June and falling national income due to lower commodity prices (lower terms-of-trade): The


China’s bull market is over

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks However, the hustle and bustle comes to an end, like a Golden Age carnival gorgeous ended. But you know the bull really came, it had magnificent swept the hundreds of millions of micro-channel and stock accounts and had changed many. The Economic Observer describes the role social media


Links August 31 2015

Asia How China’s rural farmers bet wrong on the stock market: WaPo China’s stock market rout has collapsed commodities: WaPo What are the broader consequences of China’s stock market collapse? The Diplomat Japan launches new carrier (same name as Pearl Harbor attacker..hmmm) The Diplomat China is winning strategically in South East Asia: Project Syndicate Europe


Weekend Links – 29th-30th August 2015

Asia China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think – Market Watch How Do You Short China? WSJ Friday Thoughts on Crazy Nonsense Baldings World. Things to watch… China’s Stock Market Tumble and the Outlook for the Global Economy New Economic Perspectives PBoC uses complex tool to tame yuan China Spectator China’s Meltdown


ASX at the close

Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets The Asian session took news from US equities and commodity markets well today, although the pace of the gains look to have slowed later in the session. There still does not seem to be the macro foundations for indices to fully recover from their


Melbourne’s housing BANANA attacks new suburb

By Leith van Onselen Melbourne’s biggest housing BANANA (“Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything”), RMIT planning “expert” Michael Buxton, has spent much of the past decade opposing moves to expand Melbourne’s urban growth boundary (UGB). Curiously, Buxton has also regularly rallied against high rise development across the CBD and inner areas, claiming that it is


Buiter: China leading world into recession

From Willem Buiter, one of the world’s most sensible market economists via Bloomie: “It’s an economy that’s sliding into recession.” Premier Li Keqiang is seeking to defend a 7 percent economic growth goal at a time when concern over slowing demand in China is fueling volatility in global markets. The true rate of expansion “is


Inefficient developer charges killing affordability

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Housing affordability is more than just house prices. It also includes ready access to public transport, schools, good road networks, and of course access to all the basic utilities. However, local governments don’t have the money to build all the infrastructure new housing estates need. So developer charges were introduced as


Recession fears build on the sell side

Yesterday’s awful capex report today sees more sell side rumblings of recession both in the short and medium terms. Morgan Stanley is not impressed with current data Quick Comment: Australian investment data was mixed in 2Q15, as the intense drag from the resources sector (-38% in FY16) is paired with as till patchy non-mining outlook (-8%). …Heading