Consumer confidence stuck at low altitude

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index has risen slightly once again, rising 0.9 points to 112.3 in the week ended 29 March to be tracking just below the long-run average of 113 (see next chart). According to ANZ, household’s view of the economic outlook is improving, which drove the

Latest posts


Mac Bank: We’re building but they’re not coming

From Mac Bank: For year’s Australia’s net migration data shows that people have come, but building approvals – and housing affordability – demonstrate that we’ve underbuilt. Now the opposite looks to be occurring. At a time when residential construction activity looks to finally be picking up, the pace of population growth is in decline – thanks to falling net


Macro Morning: Running of the bulls

By Chris Becker The confidence fairy spread the pixie dust across risk markets last night as talk of stimulus in China outweighed real economy news like lower earnings for S&P500 companies, lower US consumer spending amid higher home sales. Mergers and buybacks also helped the S&P500 rise more than 1% while European stocks were helped


Finally, super concession rort in the gun

By Leith van Onselen Reform to Australia’s inequitable and unsustainable superannuation concessions looks like a real possibility, with all major parties now backing reform. According to The AFR, Labor Treasury Spokesman, Chris Bowen, said there would be bipartisan support to reform the superannuation regime, which he claims is in need of “improvement”: “Where you have


The rise and rise and RISE of Australian debt

Another splendid missive today from Alex Joiner of BofAML who is distinguishing himself as a more than sane foil to mainstream economic thinking in Australia. Republished with permission enjoy The rise and rise of Australian indebtedness or, as I like to call it, the dumbest bubble in history.   The release of the December quarter financial


An outbreak of Boomer crocodile tears

I guess the writing is on the wall. Following yesterday’s Alzheimer confessions by Ross Gittins and Robert Gottliebsen that we should be concerned about the sellout of Australian youth in mining and property, today we get The Pascometer covering his tracks with ladles of empathy. For Gittins is the failing mining boom that has so


FIRB whiners primer: How to recognise a “child”

From the AFR, home of realty rentier whining: Offshore investors have baulked at Australian property following the Foreign Investment Review Board’s inquiry into non-resident investment, according to national law firm Maddocks. FIRB recommendations were released in November, 2014 and included new administration fees and tougher enforcement, including criminal penalties, for rule breaches. …”This is a


Pettifor warns of GFC 2.0 approach

From The Guardian: Ann Pettifor of Prime Economics, who foreshadowed the credit crunch in her 2003 book The Coming First World Debt Crisis, says: “We’re going to have another financial crisis. Brazil’s already in great trouble with the strength of the dollar; I dread to think what’s happening in South Africa; then there’s Malaysia. We’re


New record lows for Aussie bond yields

The rampaging bull market in Australian bonds stampedes on. The 2 year yield fell to another record low last night at 1.71% (before selling a little):   The curve continues to steepen as the long end has not yet fathomed the depths of Australian stagnation:   There were no new lows for the Australia/US spreads


Markets yawn as China cuts mortgage rates

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has cut mortgage rates again overnight from Dad’s Army: …the minimum deposit for individuals buying additional housing would be set at 40 per cent, according to a statement on its website. The level was previously 60 to 70 per cent, China’s official Xinhua news agency said. The PBoC said


Links 31 March 2015

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Glory Days of Private Equity Are Over – Wall Street Journal How DIY Bond Traders Displaced Wall Street’s Hot Shots – Bloomberg Jeremy Siegel: Why I’m feeling much better about stocks – CNBC The Monetarist Mistake – Project Syndicate Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% –


ASX at the close

Stan Shamu for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets China leads on stimulus hope Apart from the ASX 200, Asia has got off to a positive start to the week, with China leading the region. Comments by PBOC Governor Zhou from the weekend have set the tone for Chinese equities with stimulus expectations


CS: Santos is buggered

From The Australian: Oil and gas company Santos “simply must raise capital” in the face of slumping oil prices or it risks failing to break even on a cash-flow basis, says investment bank Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse, in a research note today, said Santos needed an oil price of at least $US83 a barrel to have


Japan to control Australian LNG?

As Australia flirts with disaster in the Pilbara with growing Chinese ownership, the AFR reports of similar dynamics ahead for LNG and Japan: Ms Sekiguchi, KPMG’s Tokyo-based head of energy and natural resources in Asia Pacific, said Asian utilities, trading houses and national oil companies, particularly from Japan, were enthusiastic about using their minority positions


Iron ore equity takes a bath

Big iron ore taking it in the team today with both RIO and BHP down 2% and FMG down 3.5%. To the index:   The equity index is falling but not as fast the iron ore price so the idiocy spreads keep on widening:   Damn its going to hurt when they close!  The dead


Hockey repeats negative gearing rents myth

By Leith van Onselen Treasurer Joe Hockey has once again all but repeated the tired myth that the temporary abolition of negative gearing between 1985 and 1987 drove-up rents. From The AFR: Mr Hockey said negative gearing on housing was “part of the conversation” but played down one argument against the popular tax concession, saying