Latest posts


RBS: Australia a “bubble about to burst”

From RBS: Australia has become a commodity focused economy, with an increasing exposure to China. For the past decades, Australia has been buoyed by the rapid Chinese expansion, which outpaced the rest of the world. Australia benefited from China’s strong demand for commodities given its investment-led growth model.China is Australia’s top export destination and 59%


Auction clearances continue to trend lower

Core Logic-RP Data released its auction market report yesterday, which posted a decline in the national auction clearance rate amid an ongoing downward trend. The preliminary national clearance rate was 69.6%, down from the 71.3% rate recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data: Sydney’s clearance rate fell by 2.8% to 71.4%, whereas Melbourne’s was


Carbon pledges cut warming to 2.7 degrees

From Carbon Tracker following the October 1 Paris summit pledges deadline: The UNFCCC set a deadline of October 1, 2015 for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to be included in its synthesis document. While more INDCs may come in over the day, as of 11am 108 INDCs representing 135 countries have been registered with the


Links 5 October 2015

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: A Tax to Curb Excessive Trading Could Be a Boon to Returns – NY Times Paying CEOs fat bonuses for stock performance doesn’t work – Yahoo Exxon, Chevron Outlooks Cut to Negative by S&P in Oil Slump – Bloomberg The Trans-Pacific Free-Trade Charade – Project Syndicate Half of World’s


Weekend Links, October 3-4, 2015

…more coming…  China Gaming revenue falls 33% on China slowdown, anti-corruption campaign – Nikkei Asian Review Slide in Manufacturing Continued in China Last Month – NY Times Hong Kong public expects property prices to fall in coming year – survey – SCMP Chinese property companies surge on PBOC cut to down payment requirement – SCMP


ASX at the close

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets We’ve been pushing the idea that the market wants clarity before staging a rally of some sort. However, given the extent of all the moving parts, it has become clear it’s not that simple. Having recently heard speeches from key Federal Reserve members Yellen, Lacker, Dudley and


Are Australia’s universities under-funded?

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Since the 1990s, it is said, Australian universities have become ever more under-funded and over-reliant on fee income. Internationally we seem to lag our peers, as governments short-change the sector, our students and society. Some claim that in 2011 Australia’s public spending on universities “ranked thirty-third out of the thirty-four OECD


QLD electricity demand rockets on LNG

By Leith van Onselen The Australia Institute (TAI) has released its brand new Carbon Emissions Index (CEDEX) report, which is the benchmark indicator for Australia’s carbon emissions and provides an up to date snapshot of vital data from the energy sector, along with accurate figures for total renewable energy produced in Australia, including all wind


Just how buggered is Chinese steel and co?

Very. From Macquarie Bank comes a series of charts examining the relationship between debt and cash flow in corporate China which finds: …the percentage of EBIT-uncovered debt went up from 19.9% in 2013 to 23.6% last year, and the percentage of EBITDA-uncovered debt up from 5.3% to 7%. Therefore, there has been a further deterioration


Retail sales track the housing bubble

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales figures for the month of August, which registered a 0.4% seasonally-adjusted rise in sales over the month with annual sales clocking in at a solid (but slowing) 4.5%: The below chart maps out seasonally-adjusted sales growth by segment on a monthly


“Where have all the Chinese buyers gone?”

By Leith van Onselen Could it be that the Chinese Government’s crackdown on capital flight and corruption, combined with the New Zealand Government’s new rules for property investors, are working to put the clamp on Chinese property investment? Because, as reported in today, Chinese buyers appear to have deserted the market: Where have all


Anger over big mortgage deposits

From the ABC: Mining communities on Tasmania’s west coast are disappointed they will be subject to tighter home lending requirements by a major bank. The NAB is demanding a 30 per cent deposit for residents in towns including Queenstown, Rosebery and Strahan. The west coast is facing economic challenges following a downturn in the mining


Australia’s “rampant” foreign labour exploitation

By Leith van Onselen National treasure, Fairfax’s Adele Ferguson, continues to shine a bright light on foreign worker exploitation, which she claims is “rampant” and destroying the economy: If the fallout of the 7-Eleven wage fraud scandal has taught the nation anything it is that the illegal payment of wages to workers on visas is


Bill Evans hedges his RBA hold bets

From Bill Evans: The Reserve Bank board meets next week on October 6. There is little chance that the Board will decide to change rates. Markets are giving a less than 10% probability to a move in October rising to a 25% probability by November and 50% by December. That pricing compares with market pricing,


Robb mulls back door TPP sell-out

By Leith van Onselen The last ditch negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, which got underway this week in Atlanta, have hit yet another road block, with negotiators failing to make headway on the sticking points of auto parts, dairy access and drug protections. Australia’s Trade Minister, Andrew Robb, has been quick to


Macro Morning (waiting on Fed)

By Chris Becker Its all about waiting for tonights US unemployment print as this will indicate the direction and magnitude of risk taking for the rest of the month, going into October 28’s Fed meeting. Oh and starting the quarter anew as well! Following the staid Chinese PMIs,  initial jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing PMI


PM Turnbull drives stake through politico-housing complex heart

By Leith van Onselen Change is in the air. With the Abbottalypse gone, and with it the ‘captain’s calls’ not to reform Australia’s giant and inequitable tax concessions, we have received the biggest indication yet that the holy trinity of superannuation concessions, the capital gains tax (CGT) discount, and negative gearing might finally be reformed.