1

Scott Morrison sprays revolting states with negative gearing lies

By Leith van Onselen It’s Groundhog Day once more with the Treasurer for the Property Council of Australia, Scott Morrison, making misleading claims that Labor’s plan to unwind negative gearing would force-up rents. From The AFR: Treasurer Scott Morrison said cutting negative gearing tax breaks was a “reckless” policy that would hurt the 30 per

Latest posts

0

Chinese consumer sentiment sags

From Westpac: • The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator slipped back in November, dipping 1.9% to 114.9 from 117.1 in October. The decline follows a promising lift in the previous two months that started as a rebound from a weather-affected low in August. Stepping back from recent monthly moves, sentiment remains stuck well below

4

Investors drive rebound in housing credit growth

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of October: A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below: Personal credit growth (0.0% MoM; -0.2% QoQ; -1.1% YoY) is still in the gutter, whereas business credit growth (0.5% MoM;

29

Trump appoints Goldman alumnus to run US Treasury

This is a very poor look, from the NYT: Steven Terner Mnuchin, a financier with deep roots on Wall Street and in Hollywood but no government experience, is expected to be named Donald J. Trump’s Treasury secretary as soon as Wednesday, people close to the transition say. Mr. Mnuchin, 53, was the national finance chairman

15

‘Downgrade Morrison’ reaches for LNG super profits tax

Lol, if you live long enough you get to see everything, from The Australian: The federal government plans to overhaul the petroleum resource rent tax, crude oil excise and related royalties in the wake of falling revenues. Treasurer Scott Morrison said revenue from the PRRT had halved since 2012-13 to $800 million and crude oil

1

More on the Sino Iron ramp up

From the Yahoo: The boss of CITIC’s Sino Iron magnetite project says the company expects to ship more than 10 million tonnes of concentrate this year after completion and commissioning of all of its production lines. That is well below the massive facility’s 24 million tonne-a-year nameplate capacity but CITIC Pacific Mining boss Zhang Jijing

0

RBNZ targets housing risks in financial stability report

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has released its latest financial stability report (FSR) which contains several stark warnings about the build-up of risks in the housing market: Vulnerabilities in the housing market have increased in the past six months. Despite some recent softening, house price growth in Auckland remains

0

Your Italian referendum fallout guide

From Citi: 1. The referendum is not a make-or-break moment for Italian politics. Although important, near-term risks stemming from the referendum outcome may be overstated. A No vote would maintain the (perhaps not ideal, but wellknown) institutional status quo, although it could lead to government resignations. We reckon on balance the reform is positive for

13

Coalition disunity on negative gearing grows

By Leith van Onselen On Friday, the Coalition erupted into civil war when NSW Planning Minister, Rob Stokes, threw a hand grenade at the Turnbull Government’s housing policy, arguing that changes to negative gearing are necessary to make housing more affordable. From The Australian: “We should not be content to live in a society where

18

Is APRA’s macro-prudential success overstated?

By Leith van Onselen The ABC’s Stephen Letts has published an article on the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority’s (APRA) success in curbing speculative borrowing by property investors following the implementation of its 10% speed limit on investor mortgage growth in December 2014: Since the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority imposed tighter controls two years ago, new

5

Bowen: AAA downgrade is going to hurt

Chris Bowen is talking it up, or is that down, at the AFR: Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen will on Wednesday outline the bleak scenario facing the nation’s banks and heavily indebted households if the AAA credit rating is lost, and blame the Turnbull government for exploding federal debt by $4500 a person in Australia. …According

4

Daily iron ore price update (limit down)

Iron ore charts for November 29, 2016: Tianjin benchmark crashed -6.4% to $75.10. Iron ore paper crashed -4.5% yesterday and is limit down another -6% overnight. Coking coal futures crashed limit down. Rebar held up but futures crashed. Thermal coal crashed. CISA steel output for the first ten days of November lifted 1.2% to 1.72mt.

17

China slams door shut on outbound capital

From the SCMP: Beijing is embarking on a massive policy shift designed to stem ­capital flight by curbing outbound investment, sources say. Tighter control of overseas­ ­investment is likely to put an end to a trophy-asset shopping spree by well-connected companies such as Anbang Insurance and Dalian Wanda, with Beijing ready to cut the supply

11

Links 30 November 2016

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Missing the Economic Big Picture – Project Syndicate Debating What’s Wrong With Macroeconomics – Bloomberg ’Basel Is on Life Support’ in Trump Era – nationalmortgagenews Is OPEC Playing The Oil Markets Again? – Oil Price OPEC makes last-ditch bid to save oil deal as tensions grow – Reuters How Iran, Russia Could Derail Oil-Production

0

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Markets were mixed in Asia together on the poor lead overnight, coupled with turmoil in Korea and a pullback in oil and other commodity prices. The Shanghai Composite was up nearly 0.5% after lunch but has pared that back to remain positive going into the close at 3282 points, still making good on