Latest posts


Is Australian property a “safe haven”

The usual suspects at the AFR would have you think so: Nerida Conisbee, the chief economist at property-listing company REA Group, shrugged off a question that uncertainty created by the UK’s unexpected vote to leave the 28-nation EU bloc would trigger a sharp fall in Australian property prices. If anything, it would boost demand for Australian


Abbott’s “Border Farce” selling visas to queue jumpers

Oh dear, from the ABC: Australian Border Force staff have been referred for investigation over more than 100 cases of alleged corrupt activity in Australia’s skilled and student visa program. A 7.30-Fairfax Media investigation has discovered that in the last 12 months, Australian Border Force chief Michael Pezzullo has referred 132 cases of suspected corruption


Major parties agree to ignore population ponzi

By Leith van Onselen On Friday, it was revealed in Fairfax that the major parties have agreed not to debate immigration policy this Federal Election, effectively shutting down discussion on the issue. This comes despite an Essential Research opinion poll last month showing that the overwhelming majority of Australians do not support the high levels


Is the Coalition best placed to manage a Brexit shock?

From Malcolm of the short memory on Brexit yesterday at the AFR: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has sought to soothe local jitters over Britain’s shock exit from the European Union while at the same using the situation to his political advantage by warning that only a re-elected Coalition government can successfully deal with economic uncertainty. Labor


Pascometer burns red on Brexit shock

Weoo, weeoo, weoo. Bad news for the global economy. Pascometer has written Brexit off as meaningless thereby confirming the gravity of the the threat. Reader Gunnamatta has done an excellent job of deconstructing the Pasconometric clap trap. Find it below. Pascoe begins: I really don’t give a damn about Britain. So I thought I’d add an


Economists: cut negative gearing, not company tax

By Leith van Onselen Labor have been dealt a credibility boost in the lead-up to this weekend’s Federal Election with an overwhelming majority of economists surveyed by Fairfax revealing that they support Labor’s plan to unwind negative gearing over the Coalition’s plan to drop the company tax rate from 30% to 25%. From Peter Martin:


Joye: APRA gunna lift capital

From Chris Joye: In grim news for equity investors chasing returns, NAB’s senior credit analyst Simon Fletcher has concluded that “more capital [or less leverage] is coming” for the big banks in what will be an integrity test for the insular regulator. The new NAB report also argues that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) will


Auction clearances firm

Core Logic-RP Data released its auction market report yesterday, which posted a small rise in the national auction clearance rate. The preliminary national auction clearance rate was 69.1% this week, up from the 67.2% clearance rate recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data: Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate rose by 0.8% to 77.1%, whereas Melbourne’s rose


O’Dwyer bullies Twitter into censorship

From Fairfax: Despite holding what has long been considered one of the Liberal Party’s safest seats, Ms O’Dwyer and the Liberal Party’s social media advisor have forced Twitter to remove photos from an obscure Twitter account that has only 211 followers. The Twitter account, named “Kelly the new Sophie”, had used photographs of Ms O’Dwyer


Links 27 June 2016

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Shedding light on PPP-adjusted GDP measures – VOX How Zoning Laws Exacerbate Inequality – City Lab Are machine learning algorithms biased? – Technology Lab Why Brexit Will Raise Trade Barriers – WSJ Global markets take $2tn Brexit hit – FT Brexit Casts Dark Shadow on World’s Great Move to Openness – Bloomberg Deconstructing deindustrialisation – VOX


Weekend Links 25-26 June 2016

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Brexit Infects Global Markets as Unprecedented Moves Accumulate – Bloomberg Brexit earthquake has happened, and the rubble will take years to clear – The Guardian The U.K. votes to leave the EU and global markets are tanking – Recode Pound tumbles to lows not seen since 1985 – BBC THE POUND JUST DROPPED


What now for Brexit punished markets?

 From Morgan Stanley: We see GBP moving to 1.25-1.30 and 15-20% downside to European equities relative to Thursday’s levels. Corporate and sovereign credit present the best opportunities to buy on weakness Economic implications: The UK faces a prolonged period of uncertainty which should lead both investment and consumption to wane. Longer term, a less open


A high-rise dog’s breakfast

By Michael Matusik Well, it is a dog’s breakfast in more ways than one. A “dog’s breakfast” has been British slang for “a complete mess” since the 1930s. While no one took the time to write down the exact origin of the phrase, the allusion seems to be to a failed culinary effort, perhaps a


ALP to crackdown on foreign labour rorts

By Leith van Onselen Finally, some good news on the immigration front with Labor vowing to force businesses to advertise locally before reaching for a 457 foreign worker. From Federal Labor wants to force employers to advertise locally before seeking temporary foreign workers. They will be required to advertise job opportunities for a minimum


Brexit boilover threatens! (updated)

Updated 1.50pm – 1 million votes in front for Leave   New, Brexit on track: Markets charging the USD and all red:   Old, landslide building: Old: Old: Old: Old: East Anglia University model gives Bremain zero probability: 03:00 Fifth forecast update My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets,