The talk among traders once again has been around moves in commodities and what that is saying about global growth. Doctor Copper is painting a fairly bleak picture, with LME copper and aluminium trading to, or near the lowest levels since 2009 today and CME copper futures trading to a new contract low today. Brent
From Bill Evans: This week, RBA Governor Stevens gave an important speech to the Economics community. This annual speech, the Anika Foundation Luncheon, is the only event that he has spoken at every year since his first appointment as Governor in 2006. The market takes this speech very seriously and there are usually important insights
The Chrome bug is coming from the source at Google. Chrome automatically updates which is why many of you are affected but it also means it should fix itself soon as well. In the mean time use a different browser. Regards, The MB Team.
Fresh from S&P, here is another reason for Aussie weakness today: OVERVIEW The sovereign credit ratings on Australia benefit from the country’s strong institutional settings, its wealthy and resilient economy, and significant monetary and fiscal policy flexibility. The country’s high external and household indebtedness, as well as vulnerability to weakening commodity export demand, moderate these
From ABN Amro via Forexlive: Expect the RBA to lower the Official Cash Rate by 25bp in September (previously August). In our view, the RBA remains concerned about the slow rebalancing in the economy, the recent decline in iron ore prices and the still relatively strong exchange rate. However, the RBA prefers to take a
By Gavin Putland, cross-posted from the Land Values Research Group: The McKell Institute’s report on negative gearing (Richard Holden, Switching Gears, June 2015) concluded that negative gearing for future investors should be allowed only for new homes. I have been pushing that idea since 2003. But the McKell report, in its account of the Hawke-Keating government’s
BHP and RIO are both down the better part of 1% today and edging closer to post-GFC breakdowns to boot. FMG is up 2% for no apparent reason, perhaps some bottom fishing for more Chinese stimulus. Idiocy spreads on the majors are threatening to shut in a leap: Juniors dead: Dalian has faded 2 points
From Citi’s Ivan Szpakowski who is better than most on commods:
Timberrrr: And for perspective: We’re about halfway to the low as the “Australian moment” goes down in a flaming comet of tearing metal, flesh and hubris.
Just to let readers know, we’re aware of the Chrome issues and are working up a fix asap. Regards, MB Team
The newly named Caixin China Flash PMI is out and has missed badly to the downside: Flash China General Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.2 in July (49.4 in June). 15-month low. Flash China General Manufacturing Output Index at 47.3 in July (49.7 in June). 16-month low. Data collected 13–22 July 2015. The Caixin Flash China
I noted this morning that Brent oil is tanking again and, just as importantly, that the forward curve is in free fall: My target remains $50 for this move and technicals suggest a retest of January lows. The point I wish to make now is that neither a hawkish Fed nor bond markets are ready for
By Leith van Onselen Following the conclusion of the COAG leaders’ meeting yesterday, it is now only a matter of time until the threshold by which the GST is applied to overseas purchases is lowered from $1,000. Here’s what Assistant Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, said about the issue on ABC Radio this morning: JOSH FRYDENBERG: Look,
From Deutsche: We retain our SELL on valuation (A$1.44/sh) and high debt levels. The dramatic drop in Life of Mine (LOM) strip ratios continues. Average 20 year LOM strip ratios are now expected to be 2.3:1 at the Chichester hub and 1.7:1 at Solomon. This has again been achieved through “blending and beneficiation” which has
By Leith van Onselen Former Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and New Zealand Treasury special adviser, Michael Reddell, is a rare breed. While working at the RBNZ last year, Reddell wrote a cracking paper questioning the merits of New Zealand’s high immigration program, which appears to have crowded-out (through higher interest rates and a high
By Chris Becker NASA may have found life elsewhere in the galaxy, but not in overnight markets where US stocks fell again on poor earnings even as weekly jobless claims fell to record lows and Europe remains under pressure. Bonds continue to be bid as yields fall, the US 10 year Treasury seemingly on its
By Leith van Onselen The vice is tightening around Australia’s property investors. First it was Westpac Bank, which announced that investors would need a minimum 20% deposit in order to secure a new investor mortgage. Then, as reported yesterday, ANZ Bank lifted its home loan rates on all variable investor mortgages by 0.27% and by
I noted Wednesday that Capt’ Glenn’s embrace of notions of secular stagnation had punched a huge hole in Bozo Joe’s Budget outlook and today David Uren sticks his head through it to find a gaping maw: Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens’ warning on Wednesday that Australia’s potential growth rate may have fallen permanently would have
By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 23 July 2015, the Core Logic-RP Data 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose another 0.27% – the fifth consecutive week of strong rises (see next chart). Values rose across all major capitals except Brisbane and Adelaide (see next chart).
Cross-posted from The Conversation: The ostensible purpose of the 2015 Intergenerational Report is to ensure Australia’s future prosperity in the face of demographic ageing over the next 40 years. Its real purpose is different. The Coalition won the 2013 election as the party of economic management, a party that would balance the books after years
By David Collyer, cross-posted from Prosper Australia: The Housing Industry Association’s Harley Dale and the Urban Development Institute’s Michael Corcoran have called for the repeal of Stamp Duty in favor of a broad-based land tax, News Corp reports. Both lobby groups fear an extension of the GST to building products, which would be passed on
From The Australian: The Abbott government has held talks with Flinders University about hosting a major policy centre in Adelaide based on the methodology of controversial Danish academic Bjorn Lomborg. Education Minister Christopher Pyne has been searching for an institution willing to host the so-called Australia Consensus Centre, with $4 million in federal funds, since
Here are the iron ore charts for July 23, 2015: Qingdao firm. Tianjin benchmark not so much down 0.2% to $50.60. 12 month swaps are perilously poised. Dalian was off 1% but recovered most of that overnight to end at 381 this morning. Rebar average, well, see ya and wouldn’t wanna be ya! News is
Brent oil posted another new low overnight, down 1% to $55.50 as I write. There was no real reason for it other than good sense. $50 beckons. Even more troubling for oil and LNG producers, the futures market has broken down completely now and is in free fall for years out: All time frames are
From Citi via FTAlphaville as the Shanghai rebound pushes to new highs: Sentiment indexes are in despair and investors want to get more bearish still — It is rather strange that an asset class which is already in despair according to our sentiment indicators, and where valuations range from 1 stdev-below-mean to mean in terms of
