Latest posts


Is CBA really worth it?

Deutsche Bank has a very good take on CBA today (and a Hold rating): Defensive qualities on show but PE rel vs peers very elevated CBA’s 1H16 result was somewhat of a mixed bag. While its net interest margin disappointed due to weakness in Insto & NZ, cost growth was stubbornly high and impairment expense increased, this


Bloxo hoses ABS jobs numberwang

You know you’re in trouble when Bloxo hoses you’re bullish data:  Measurement issues in the official labour force survey have made it difficult to track the Australian labour market recently  We construct a ‘labour market index’ using a range of other timely indicators which shows that the improvement may have been more gradual


Cormann blockades Senate negative gearing debate

By Leith van Onselen If you want a prime example of how dysfunctional Australia’s political system is, look no further than the above footage of yesterday’s Senate estimates questions to Australian Treasury head, John Fraser. In the video, The Greens’ Scott Ludlam and Labor’s Penny Wong ask a bunch of legitimate questions about the role,


Mining GFC smoulders

The Mining GFC smouldered overnight as the our Janet barely moved the needle. The US dollar firmed a little: Commodity currencies were mostly up anyway: Brent oil was flat: Base metals a little weak: Miners too: US high yield debt held its losses and EMs weakened: And today’s chart de jour is from Zero Hedge


Costello calls for death taxes on super rich

By Leith van Onselen Tim Costello, chairman for the Community Council for Australia and World Vision CEO, has called for the implementation of a “death tax” for Australia’s super-rich families, which he claims could raise some $5 billion of additional revenue for the Budget, while improving equity. From The Canberra Times: “This should simply be


Janet waffles

And here it is: Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth, with declines in broad measures of equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labor


RP Data: Aussie housing values now $6.4 trillion

By Leith van Onselen Core Logic-RP Data has released its February Housing Market and Economic Update, which contains a bunch of useful charts relating to the housing market. According to RP Data, the value of Australia’s total dwelling stock hit a record $6.4 trillion in January, and accounts for more than half (52%) of Australia’s


Will China push its nuclear yuan button?

From the FT: Chinese companies and residents sent more than $110bn out of the country in January alone, according to new estimates, as they continued to evade tightening capital controls amid another round of market turmoil. Surging capital outflows from China have become a source of growing concern around the world and left Beijing scrambling


Links 11 February 2016

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Deutsche Bank Said in Early Stages of Mulling Bond Buyback – Bloomberg How Low Can Central Banks Go? JPMorgan Reckons Way, Way Lower – Bloomberg Stung by Low Oil Prices, Companies Face a Reckoning on Debts – NY Times Tech Stocks Have Fallen Faster and Further Than Broader Market


ASX at the close

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets Asian markets have fallen once again, although without quite the same ferocity we saw in yesterday’s bloodbath and there is some buying coming back into the Australian equity markets, presumably short covering. US traders did act with a calmer mindset yesterday, but price action was far from


Govt partially deregulates car sales

By Leith van Onselen From The Guardian comes news that the Government has announced that it will deregulate new car sales, thereby permitting buyers to purchase new cars directly from overseas dealers: Legal restrictions will be removed to allow drivers to buy a new car once every two years, providing it is no more than


Trump, Sanders win New Hampshire

From the New York Times: Donald J. Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont rocked the American political establishment on Tuesday night, harnessing working-class fury to surge to commanding victories in a New Hampshire primary that drew energetic turnout across the state. Mr. Trump, the wealthy businessman whose blunt language and outsider image has electrified