Latest posts


Fed minutes dove up on oil

From the Fed minutes: In assessing whether economic conditions had improved sufficiently to initiate a firming in the stance of policy, many members said that the improvement in labor market conditions met or would soon meet one of the Committee’s criteria for beginning policy normalization.But some indicated that their confidence that inflation would gradually return


Links 9 October, 2015

  Macro & Markets Oil-producing nations dip into sovereign wealth funds to fill gaps – Nikkei Asian Review $3 trillion corporate credit crunch looms as debtors face day of reckoning, says IMF – Telegraph Crude awakening: Beware oil’s ‘dead cat bounce’ – CNBC China and Europe may team up to snub TPP – CNBC Disregard


ASX at the close

Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets The better-than-expected PMI numbers and the range of new policies announced, from easing property down payments to lowering the tax rate on new car purchases, helped boost H-shares 10.5%. Expectations were high for the Chinese markets to play catch up and rally along with


The NBN could boost Australia’s GDP by 2%

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The National Broadband Network (NBN) can boost Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about 2% in the long term and, more importantly, add to our national welfare by improving real household consumption by 1.4%. These results, based on our recent research on the NBN’s economic benefit, mean the NBN will produce


Shanghai to fall further declares guru

Shanghai is up 3.23% after reopening today but that disappointed the fruit loops driving the dead cat and shares have slowed.  Meanwhile, from Bloomie: Volatility in the world’s wildest stock market is finally receding. If that’s one argument for buying Chinese shares, Bocom International Holdings Co.’s Hao Hong has a long list of reasons why you


Data retention laws introduced Tuesday

By Leith van Onselen From comes confirmation that Australia’s controversial data retention (‘metadata’) laws will come into effect on Tuesday, despite nobody knowing the full costs involved in the scheme: The October 13 start of the Mandatory Data Retention Regime will involve details of our telephone and internet messages being stored by service providers


Glencore’s monstrous debt

From BofAML: We consider different approaches to Glencore’s debt. Credit agencies, such as S&P, start with “normal” net debt, i.e. gross debt less cash and then deduct some share (80% in the case of S&P of “RMIs” – Readily Marketable Inventories. These are considered to be “cash like” inventories (working capital) in the marketing business.


Where goes Macau casinos goes Oz property

From Fairfax: The possibility – however slight – of a meaningful crackdown by Beijing on capital outflows has prompted CLSA analysts to downgrade Australian casino operators Crown , Echo and SkyCity. “Although it remains an open question as to whether China has the will or the means to exercise such a restriction Australian casino revenues


More on the MS note that rocketed RIO

As we know, a Morgan Stanley upgrade to big miners triggered a surge in share price last in London. From Business Insider comes more: “Emerging markets and China in particular remain key to commodities demand,” the team wrote in a note to clients. “In the next few months we expect the perception around this demand to improve.


TPP prevents NZ from regulating foreign buyers

By Leith van Onselen Thanks goodness Australia has already ‘banned’ foreign investment in established dwellings, because under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), introduction of such laws would be disallowed. New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) explains: TPP protects investors from foreign governments acting in a grossly unfair or unjust way towards them, discriminating


Inside China’s property bust

By Leith van Onselen Find above an interesting video report aired on ABC’s The Business yesterday, taking a look inside China’s real estate bust, whereby years of over-building have left a huge glut of homes and commercial properties across many of China’s smaller cities. Key points from the report include: Land sales are down 32%


It’s QE4 or bust for miners

There are lots of value analyses floating around today hoping for an end to the commodity bear market. Some are about more foreign buyers arriving in Australian shares, from Deutsche via The Australian: International buyers jumped back into Australian equities in the last quarter, according to Deutsche Bank research, with US and Japanese investors, in


Glencore speaks truth on Adani coal monster

Glencore is making sense in one way today, from The Australian: One of Glencore’s top executives has issued a veiled swipe at Adani’s planned multi-billion-dollar Carmichael coal project, saying “unprofitable” taxpayer-backed mines would simply further pressure a sector already grappling with oversupply. Even with the industry under a financial squeeze from a collapse in coal


Macro Morning (bounce stretch)

By Chris Becker The near week long bounce in equity markets continues but is starting to look stretched as bonds remain cool and commodity watchers wait for Chinese markets and sentiment to re-open today. European stocks were flat while in the US, downbeaten biotech stocks soared lifting all boats. Emerging markets are getting relief too,


ANZ: “dire outlook for economy in 2016 and 2017”

By Leith van Onselen ANZ has given support to MB’s view that the Australian economy will face a significant downturn over the next two years, warning that the outlook for the economy is “dire” in 2016 and 2017. From The AFR: The ANZ expects housing starts to peak at 215,000 in the year to December


Albert Edwards on the next deflation

From Soc Gen: Two things caught my eye this week. The first was more soggy Japanese economic data which suggests that the BoJ may soon hit the QE button even harder. That would trigger a renewed slide in the yen and another round of Asian currency turmoil – plus c?a change! But, secondly and perhaps