Latest posts

6

Chinext goes splat

It’s not exactly high level blogging but China bust watching is fun! Shanghai is barely positive for the day now: As Chinext goes splat, down -4% and below Friday’s lows: How do you say ‘lost credibility’ in Mandarin for Chinese authorities?

41

Greece mulls printing counterfiet euros

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Top Syriza officials say they are considering drastic steps to boost liquidity and shore up the banking system, should the ECB refuse to give the country enough breathing room for a fresh talks. “If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU’s, in an electronic form. We should have done it

2

Shadow RBA says…

Whatever! In Greece the economic tragedy appears to be in its final act, while dramatic falls in the Chinese stock market highlight the weaknesses of its economy. Domestic economic data is mixed: unemployment has fallen slightly but consumer and producer confidence have weakened. Inflation remains comfortably within the RBA’s target band. The CAMA RBA Shadow

2

Shanghai struggles despite bailout (updated)

Shanghai opened a nice 5% higher this morning following the weekend’s kitchen sink bailout but had faded now to 2.5%: Worryingly, the high beta Chinext market has rolled and is now down 2%: I’ll be honest, I have no idea where this bubble will go next. If you put a gun to my head I’d say

10

Alan Oxley’s TPP defence fails again

By Leith van Onselen Vocal Free Trade Agreement (FTA) advocate, Alan Oxley, has delivered another Panglossian view of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which he claims will “will open services markets and free up investment”. From The AFR: Free trade and the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement has been roundly attacked, but mostly by groups that

57

Selling the farm

By Leith van Onselen Chanel 7’s Sunday Night program aired an interesting investigative report on the widespread sale of Australian agricultural land to foreign interests, particularly the Chinese (Parts 1&2 are above). According to the report, there is no comprehensive national list of foreign investment in rural land. However, in Queensland, which does maintain a

9

How endless population growth makes us poorer

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Ross Gittins has posted a cracking article today lambasting Australian economists’ blind faith in endless population growth and a “Big Australia”, arguing that it is a recipe for lower living standards: Slower population growth meant slower growth in real gross domestic product and this would also make it harder to

160

Greece says “no” in landslide

With 60% of the Greek referendum vote counted it appears to be over: Who could have known that a sovereign people would tell a foreign power with whom they were previously at war to shove their blackmail demands? Here is Deutsche with where we go from here: NO, Scenario #N1. Soft deal This, in our

22

Shocks line up to sink Australia

A triple-headed risk is suddenly bearing down on the global economy as Grexit, the Chinese structural adjustment and US tightening combine to threaten a perfect storm. Each represents a different kind of shock but all three share one characteristic; they are attempts by large economies to exit extraordinary GFC stimulus: Europe is ending the farce that internal deflation can repair peripheral

14

But Greece doesn’t matter…

You can always tell that the Australian economy is really at risk when Ross Gittins resumes the campaign for national ignorance: We’re still learning to cope with a globalised world. Things work a bit differently now, and we have to adjust our thinking accordingly. Globalisation – the breaking down of barriers between countries – is leading to

4

Mortgage Choice sees macroprudential bite

From the AFR: One of the country’s biggest mortgage brokers, Mortgage Choice, says the clampdown on lending to landlords has dragged property investors’ share of its loan approvals to a 20-month low. In a sign banks’ tighter credit standards are having some impact, Mortgage Choice says the proportion of its loan approvals going to property investors fell from 34 per cent in May to

3

Auction clearances still stuck in orbit

Core Logic-RP Data released its auction market report last night, which revealed that the national auction clearance rate rose ever so marginally over the weekend, continuing the record run of strong results. The preliminary national clearance rate was 78.1%, up slightly from the 78.0% recorded last weekend, according to Core Logic-RP Data: Sydney’s clearance rate

8

Ergas detonates under negative gearing

By Leith van Onselen Another day, another spurious defence of negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount. This time from The Australian’s Henry Ergas, who has written a vitriolic piece attacking the Grattan Institute’s John Daley and Daniel Wood. Let’s take a look at his key points. First, tax efficiency: To repeat, for the benefit

13

Perth’s last property bull standing

By Leith van Onselen The property industry in Perth are getting desperate. Following the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia’s (REIWA) delusional call a few week’s back that the Perth housing market is set to soar, one of Western Australia’s top valuers claims an opportunity is emerging for astute buyers to get into the Perth market

36

The Abbottalypse rolls on

No change, really, in today’s polls. Newspoll has the Government trailing labour 48-52: Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has improved its two-party-preferred lead from 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in the middle of last month to 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent at the

1

Only government buying can save China stocks

From BofAML: Bottom likely when govt becomes buyer of last resort After reaching a peak of 5,166 on Jun 12, SHCOMP declined sharply by almost 30% to 3,687 within three weeks. The ferociousness of the sell-off even took us by surprise – although we have a 3,600 target for the index, we thought it would