Latest posts


Tourism is booming

by Chris Becker Some good news on the tourism front from the TRA (Tourism Research Australia) showing for the year ending June 2015: international visitor numbers increased 7% to a new high of 6.6 million visitors international visitor spend grew by 10% to a record $33.4 billion—or $3.2 billion more than the previous year. This is


Charting the fall in Aussie living standards

By Leith van Onselen To add some perspective on why MB believes the Australian economy is so fragile, and why living standards are falling, I have once again taken the time to deflate three measures of the domestic economy, as provided in the June quarter national accounts (released yesterday), by the ABS’ population data, in order


The mining states’ boom and bust

By Leith van Onselen For years, the resources boom was the gift that keept on giving, driving the Australian economy forward through the post-Global Financial Crisis period, helped in no small measure by the huge surge in mining-related capital expenditures (capex). Now, mining capex is in free fall (see next chart), causing clear headwinds for


Links 3 September 2015

Global Macro/Markets El Nino to be strongest in decades as food shortages loom – BBC (more on this today actually) Bill Gross says Fed tightening would create new cycle of instability – Reuters (understatement) World faces third deflationary wave on emerging market crisis – FT (must read) How natural resources breed violence, especially in Africa


ASX at the close

by Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, IG The Chinese market intervention ahead of the WWII commemoration tomorrow has also boosted stocks in the region. Only the ASX is down on the day, but it has pared back much of its earlier losses. China: readying for a holiday The ‘National Team’ are out in force today


GDP at 0.2%: Did the Aussie economy just snap?

By Alpha Beta Strategy and Economics, republished with permission Aussie growth slows … again ABS data released today showed Australian economic growth slowing to just 0.2% over the quarter. This is the slowest rate of quarterly growth since the global financial crisis, with the exception of the quarter affected by the Queensland floods. More importantly,


Public debt surges under Abbott Government

By Leith van Onselen From Stephen Koukoulas (“the Kouk”) comes news that public debt has exploded by $111 billion since the Abbott Government was first elected in September 2013: As at last Friday, 28 August 2015, gross government debt was $384.7 billion – the highest level ever recorded. This represents an increase of $111 billion


Chinese stocks move into suss territory

by Chris Becker Eloquently put by the chaps at Forexlive, but the Shanghai Composite – down over 4% at the open – is now in positive territory after the lunch break! Nothing suss. (That’s an Australian saying for ‘nothing suspicious’). There is still the afternoon session to come, and after that China is closed until


WA: where reality goes off the deep end

by Chris Becker I don’t know where to begin when a political leader makes statements like this. From the West Australian: Premier Colin Barnett says economic commentators calling the end of the mining boom are “naive and wrong”, and says he believes commodity markets have stabilised ahead of a recovery in the next year. Speaking


GDP rises 0.2%, misses expectations

The ABS has just released the June quarter national accounts and it’s missed expectations with a 0.2% quarterly rise versus expectations of 0.4% growth. Annual growth slowed to 2.0% versus 2.2% expected: Per capita GDP shrunk by 0.2% over the June quarter, whereas aggregate nominal GDP rose by just 0.3% over the quarter and by


Last day of the China stock market rout

by Chris Becker Closed on Thursday and Friday for celebrations and a big-ass military parade (because why not), today is the last day to trade Chinese shares for the week, which may give overseas traders some breathing room. Although the Shanghai Composite looks set to open down over 4% this morning, so maybe not… In other


Fairfax hits back at Coalition whinger

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax Media has hit back hard at Immigration Minister, Peter Dutton’s, claim yesterday that it was actively trying to “bring the government down” and was conducting “a bit of a jihad” against the Government. Fairfax’s Mark Kenny has described Dutton’s whinge as “like a recurring wave of nausea” from a “faultering


China comes after our money launderers

By Leith van Onselen From The AFR’s Karen Maley comes a report that China’s authorities are stepping-up action to prevent money from being illegally transferred out of the country: On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China, announced changes that will make it more expensive for investors to hedge against further drops in the Chinese yuan


Hockey: Leave super alone

By Leith van Onselen Despite virtually all corners urging superannuation reform, Treasurer Joe Hockey is holding firm to Tony Abbott’s “captain’s call” that the Government would never raise taxes on superannuation, arguing instead that making changes would depress household consumption: “We are reluctant to touch superannuation because at the moment superannuants are getting very low


Time to buy Woolies?

by Chris Becker After looking at a myriad of charts over the years, one has always struck me as being both extremely interesting and potentially – rare in technical analysis – predictable. I refer to the long term chart of stalwart staple, Woolworths (WOW): What makes the chart so interesting is the share price of


Canada’s economy slips into recession

By Leith van Onselen Canada and Australia have a lot in common. Both economies are commodity exporters. Both countries have experienced high rates of immigration. Both countries largely dodged the global recession that shocked the developed world. Both are said to have world-beating banking systems. Both nations have amongst the developed world’s most expensive housing, when measured and against


Markets falling on global demand, not just China

by Chris Weston, IG The way I see the state of play is that this is a global demand issue and although this has been the case for some time it is now fully in the markets crosshairs. Korea’s export numbers (-14.7%) epitomised this view and China’s exports numbers (out next week) will do too.


Is Australia sliding into recession?

By Leith van Onselen After 96 quarters without experiencing a “technical recession” (i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth), the Wall Street Journal has asked the question: Is Australia Sliding into Recession? …economists are seeing red flags that point to a looming economic slump… Some economists, including from UBS, Goldman Sachs and Morgan


Macro Morning (fear returneth)

By Chris Becker China’s manufacturing PMI slump, combined with the IMFs rising concern about emerging market growth has seen global growth forecasts and risk appetites slashed, sending risk prices down all across the board. Stocks in the US and Europe were all off 2-3% while oil suffered a huge reversal in fortune, falling nearly 10%