What is it, national MB day today? From the AFR, Warwick McKibbin is out with another warning that will be familiar to readers: Professor McKibbin said the expected massive expansion of shale gas in the US would reduce the price of world gas prices from 2016 onwards. This would cause manufacturers and other energy-intensive industries to switch to gas-fired power from coal-fired power and hurt Australia’s coal prices and export volumes. “From Australia’s point of view this shock in the US reduces Australia’s terms of trade by about 8 per cent over the next couple of years,”...

The Westpac monthly consumer expectations pack is out and shows well anchored inflation expectations: But a big jump in unemployment expectations: Still not quite a tend break but worrying nonetheless. Expectations Bulletin Pack May...

From the SMH: Ford Motor will close its local car manufacturing plants in 2016 after almost nine decades in the country. Ford, the smallest of the country’s three manufacturers after Toyota and Holden, will shut its assembly plant at Broadmeadows in northern Melbourne and an engine plant in Geelong to the west of the city, the company announced this morning. About 1200 jobs will be cut as a result of the closures, the company said this morning. ...‘‘Australian manufacturing can’t keep its head above water,’’ said Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney....

In one promising development today, the arse is departing from the Australian dollar, currently trading down towards 96.5 cents. First it was Bernanke and then Ford in the two step: On a longer time frame the key levels are last year's low at 95.70/80 and then huge at 94 cents (h/t Deus Forex Machina): Having refused to keep the dollar down and successfully hollowed out the economy in the process, I can't wait to see the heroes at the RBA buying...

By Leith van Onselen The Australian newspaper today contains some interesting discussion on the state of Federal Government budget finances, which it argues are likely to remain in deficit for a prolonged period of time following reckless tax and spending decisions undertaken by both the formal Howard Government and the current Labor Government, which has left the budget in structural deficit: Ringing the alarm on fiscal policy barely one week after the federal budget, two independent reports from the Parliamentary Budget Office and the federal Treasury reveal a sharp decline in the structure...

Goldman Sachs is out with a note this morning forecasting structurally weak mortgage growth: While we expect lower interest rates to stimulate mortgage credit growth in the near term, we believe investors should expect structurally lower growth to continue in the medium/ long term. Mortgage credit growth helped in the near term by lower rates … After 200 bp of cash rate cuts over the past 18 months, the more recent tick up in housing finance approvals does suggest the recovery in mortgage credit growth is taking hold. Indeed, we note that the number of 12-month rolling housing approvals...

BHP held an investors round table yesterday and it produced a few interesting iron ore snippets. From Citi: WA Iron Ore is on track to deliver 220mtpa by mid-14, with an unapproved US$1b expansion of Jimblebar likely to take that to 240mtpa. To reach 300mtpa an additional mining hub, in-load capacity and berths in Port Hedland will be required, which given forecasts for building iron ore surpluses and calls from shareholders for capital discipline and increased returns could increasingly come under pressure in our view. A decision on whether to push ahead on Jansen will be required in the next few...

From the AFR (and through my Geelong rumour mill): Ford Australia is expected to announce on Thursday that it will shut its car plants in Melbourne and Geelong in 2016, causing the loss of about 2000 jobs. The company has scheduled a press conference for 10.45am at its assembly plant at Broadmeadows in Melbourne’s northern suburbs. From the SMH: A statement from acting Industry Minister Craig Emerson has just been sent out: "The Government is aware of reports that Ford is making a significant announcement about the future of its manufacturing operations. "In these situations our top...

There was little inconvenient truth in Ben Bernanke's speech and then questions last night that has sent US 10 years yields 11 basis points higher to 2.03% , the S&P and Dow down 0.85% and 0.52% respectively and contributed to a wild old night on FX markets. In his prepared remarks Bernanke said that a premature tightening could endanger the recovery which eased fears about the so-called "taper" which helped drive the S&P up to an intraday high of 1687 before closing down at 1655. Euro rallied to a high of 1.2997 at this time, while the Aussie was 0.9827 before crashing to trade under...

The FOMC Minutes overnight showed a front-of-mind intent to plan its exit from QE: After the policy vote, participants began a review of the exit strategy principles that were published in the minutes of the Committee's June 2011 meeting. Those principles, which the Committee issued to clarify how it intended to normalize the stance and conduct of monetary policy when doing so eventually became appropriate, included broad principles along with some details about the timing and sequence of specific steps the Committee expected to take. The participants' discussion touched on various aspects of the...

Senior Australian economist Adrian Blundell-Wignall, special adviser to the OECD's secretary-general, said yesterday that: "Australia is in a very unfortunate position...Having done the right thing, having no capital controls, Australia is now facing the whole avalanche of world investors seeking out Australian assets...the yen had been strong not because interest rates there (in Japan) were high, but because it was one of the countries that wouldn't do anything to push its exchange rate down". Quantitative easing had created a gigantic bubble in global bond markets, whose bursting would cause...

By Leith van Onselen The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released a new report (below) examining the state of the home renovation market, where activity has declined sharply over the past 18 months (see next chart). The reasons for the declining renovation activity are as follows, according to the HIA: One of the major shifts experienced in Australia’s economic environment since the GFC has been heightened consumer caution. This is demonstrated by the protracted weak consumer confidence measures and also the increased household savings rate – now at around 11 per cent, compared...

By Leith van Onselen The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis recently released an interesting short report on China's epic housing bubble, which it warns could burst in the event that both household income growth and the savings rate start to decline, and/or capital controls in China begin to relax, removing housing's preferred status as a store of wealth (h/t Bernard Hickey at Interest.co.nz): Housing and land prices in China have increased continuously and dramatically for the past two decades. In fact, housing price growth has significantly outstripped income growth. Current housing prices...

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday, Shadow Treasurer, Joe Hockey, delivered his budget reply speech to the National Press Club (below), which contained some spurious assertions about the causes of recent budget deficits, whilst ignoring the former Howard Government's role in creating the current structural budget deficit. Let's take a look. The Government’s sixth budget fundamentally lacks integrity. Like everything else, they have over promised and under delivered. Let me give you five reasons why you can’t believe the Budget promises. Firstly, they have broken the most solemn promise...

So, the business media did get around to reporting yesterday's awful BREE predictions for the mining bust, late in the evening at both (I'd asked earlier in the day why they had not covered the story). The coverage itself tells you all you need to know. At BS Stephen Batholomeusz does a creditable job: A large part of that is due to the inability of resource company managements to control costs in the race to get resources into production and within a labour and equipment-constrained environment. The Australian dollar has played a part and the relative lack of flexibility and mobility within...

Find below the iron ore price table for May 22, 2013: In news today, Deutsche is out with a new report predicting another 8% drop in spot. From Businessweek: Steel prices that have been pressuring Chinese mills are stabilizing as facilities shut down due to power shortages in Hebei province, and more will close for routine maintenance and to draw down surplus steel inventories, Deutsche Bank said. “There remains some life in the market yet despite the operating pressures facing Chinese steel mills,” Deutsche Bank said in the report. “We expect that more shutdowns will occur over the...

Global Macro/Markets: Lessons at the Zero Bound: The Japanese and U.S. Experience - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - New York Fed Low yields and high uncertainty - businesstimes.com.sg Headed for euphoria - Sober Look Market Insight: Central bankers turn deaf ear on balance sheets - Financial Times North America: How Rail is Reshaping America’s Energy System - cmegroup.com Ford adds production in North America to meet new car demand - Reuters US farmland faces asset bubble test - Financial Times Europe: ECB: Euro area balance of payments in March 2013 - European...

It’s all about Ben Bernanke and we thoroughly expect him to align his narrative with that of his compatriot in the core of the Fed, Bill Dudley. The market will always pay close attention to Dudley, Yellen and Bernanke as they are permanent members and effectively have the last say. Bill Dudley was clearly dovish yesterday, and we thought it interesting that he compared the Fed to the BoJ through the years, suggesting the Fed shouldn’t do too little. Importantly, Dudley said he wasn’t sure which way the future direction of asset purchases will go – either up or down. Of course this will be...

Cross-posted from The Conversation Amid the doom and gloom of recent world economic reports, Japan has provided a rare source of good news. In the first quarter of the year, its economy grew by 0.9%, indicating an annual growth rate of 3.5%. This is considerably higher than most comparable nations; the US is growing, but at a lower rate, and much of Europe is still in recession. Japanese growth is particularly welcome as the country’s economy has stagnated for much of the past two decades. Confidence is in short supply, and investment and consumption are lacking. Even zero interest rates...

By Leith van Onselen As noted earlier by Houses & Holes, today's sharp fall in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index was an unwelcome wake-up call for an economy that has struggled to gain momentum despite -2.00% of cuts to official interest rates since November 2011. The Consumer Sentiment index fell for the second consecutive month, slumping by -7.3 points in May to just to 97.6. It was the biggest monthly decline in the index since December 2011, with sentiment now running well below the 100-point threshold seperating optimists from pessimists (see next...

This morning BREE released a half -yearly document that poses some very serious questions about Australian economic prospects. It's forecasts for a fall in the mining investment pipeline from $268 billion today to $70 billion in 2017 is, being kind, a bit of a concern. Yet neither the AFR nor BS has even reported it, let alone discussed it, though The OZ has managed a small story. They're busy splitting hairs over a surplus that has zero chance of ever becoming a reality. This could be for a number of reasons: political bias: they do not want to see any tough questions thrown at Tony's...

At last we're getting somewhere in official circles. The Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE) has released its April half report and, yes, there is an investment cliff in the offing. For the first time, BREE offers a forecast for the stock of  investment in the pipeline in the years ahead: BREE has modelled two scenarios based on this rating system: • A ‘likely scenario; which includes all existing projects at the Committed Stage and the projects assessed as likely to progress to the Committed Stage in the next five years. • A ‘possible scenario’; which includes all...

By Leith van Onselen Back in April, Kyle Bass, head of Dallas-based hedge fund Hayman Advisors LP, outlined to CNBC (above) why he is shorting the Yen and Japanese Government Bonds: Kyle Bass: I think it's really important to understand the magnitude of what they're embarking on. It's essentially doubling the monetary base. It is a giant experiment. Doubling the monetary base in two years is extremely experimental. But when you're backed into a corner, and your debts are more than 20 times your central government tax revenue, you're already insolvent. It's to the point that they have to do...

DEEWR jobs ads for April are out and were down 3.6%: The falls were widespread by state: And by industry: Vacancy Report May...