ASX at the close

Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets Asian markets followed Europe’s lead downwards as concerns over Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet seemed to add to ongoing market concerns. While the dispute between Turkey and Russia is unlikely to escalate into a “hot” conflict, it does underline the unresolved tensions over

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China consumer confidence off the canvass

From Westpac: The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (hereafter the CSI) rose 3.3pts from 109.7 in October to 113.1 in November. The CSI is now up 1.9% on a year ago but still 6% below its long run average. The Index is in line with the average recorded over the last 18mths. This follows


Goldman: Metals crash not over, China weakness “imminent”

From Goldman: Metals prices have declined by 12%-17% since late October. Over this period, China’s economic data for October has disappointed, the US dollar has strengthened on a trade weighted basis, and the broader commodity complex has moved lower, including most notably, energy prices. What has also occurred since late October has been an eye


S&P approves Oz risk in rear vision mirror

S&P has released its new BICRA scores for countries and Australia come out OK: Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services classifies the banking sector of Australia (AAA/Stable/A-1+) in group ‘2’ under its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA). Some of the other countries in group ‘2’ are Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Sweden, and Switzerland.


Capex preview

From Westpac: The ABS survey of private business investment plans, the CAPEX survey, will provide some further guidance to growth prospects. The September quarter edition will be released on November 26, with responses received over October and early November. This update will include Estimate 4 of capex plans for 2015/16. Here we provide scenarios for


How grey gougers work and dodge tax

By Leith van Onselen In 2005, former Treasurer Peter Costello implemented the mother of baby boomer bribes in the form of the “transition-to-retirement” (TTR) rules, which allows those aged over 55 to legally minimise their tax by salary sacrificing up to $35,000 into a superannuation account (thus paying 15% contributions tax) and then simultaneously withdrawing


Soc Gen’s five black swans for 2016

From Society Generale: Brexit at a probability of 45%, remains our highest probability risk. At this time, a date has yet to be set for the referendum but 3Q16 seems a likely timing, based on the idea that Prime Minister Cameron will want to hold the referendum within a reasonable timeframe on concluding an agreement


WA’s Budget assumptions are already destroyed

By Leith van Onselen The release on Friday of the State Accounts, along with other recent data releases from the ABS, have well and truly shattered the WA Government’s Budget projections, which were built on delusions of grandeur. The key assumptions underpinning the 2015-16 Budget are illustrated below, with the iron ore forecasts highlighted in


Macro Morning (Turkey shoot)

 by Chris Becker A Turkey shoot overnight translated to a wobbly session in European stocks while oil spiked alongside other commodities as US dollar strength. Yesterday’s data dump began with a firming Japan manufacturing PMI that put a bid underneath Yen, while in the US consumer confidence slumped even as house prices registered solid gains in the face


Capt’ Glenn covers his butt

Captain Glenn spoke last night and here it is. The Long Run Glenn Stevens* Governor Address to the Australian Business Economists (ABE) Annual Dinner Sydney – 24 November 2015 Thank you for the opportunity to address you this evening. You’ve spent all afternoon talking about the near-term outlook. No doubt there was a lively discussion


Hits and misses in competition policy response

By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government has released its response to the Competition Policy Review (‘the Harper Review’), accepting in full or in principle 39 of the 56 recommendations and partly accepting a further five, while pushing the controversial recommendations to change the law on companies abusing their market power and on liberalising pharmacy


CS: ABS numberwang messing with RBA’s head

From Credit Suisse: New economy leading the labour market. ABS data suggest that the bulk of job creation has occurred in “new-economy” sectors such as healthcare and professional, scientific and technical services. Indeed, these sectors account for roughly 80% of the 232K jobs created in 2015 to date. In contrast, “old-economy” sectors, such as mining,


Grattan delivers blueprint for fair super reform

By Leith van Onselen The Grattan Institute has delivered another excellent report entitled Super tax targeting, which argues that the Budget could save a combined $6.6 billion a year by better targeting superannuation contributions (saving $3.9 billion a year), along with implementing a 15% tax on the earnings of retirees (saving $2.7 billion a year).


The fuel driving the Syd/Melb housing bubbles

By Leith van Onselen Among all of the factors that drive house price growth, arguably the most important is the flow of housing finance commitments, which has shown an incredibly strong correlation over the past several decades (see next chart). On Friday, the ABS released its State Accounts for the year ended June 2015, which


Goldman: 2016 to suck for stocks

From Goldman: In many ways our 2016 forecast is “déjà vu all over again.” The US stock market has mostly traded sideways during 2015 with the index hovering in a narrow  band except for a brief late summer correction. Return dispersion across the market and within sectors has been low. Market breadth is currently at


Memo to a commodities confused Mr Evans-Pritchard

From AEP: Known to traders as Dr Copper, the metal is tracked as a barometer of health for the world economy but has increasingly become a rogue indicator. China consumes 45pc of the world’s supply, distorting the picture. Beijing is deliberately winding down its “old economy” of heavy industry and break-neck construction, switching to a