Via the AFR: Mr White said that, while he thought growth in Australia’s house prices would remain steady, he shared some concerns over the macroeconomic prospects. “Before you take a view on where houses prices will go in 2017, you must take a view on interest rates and the AAA rating,” Mr White said. “The only element that
Big Iron has bifurcated today. Dalian is down a little more from overnight: As Chinese bonds continue to get absolutely flogged: And CNY to fall: BHP is 1.1%, RIO 1.2%, FMG -3.3% and WHC -2%: The high flyers look very vulnerable as the bulks keep falling. Big Gas is firm: Big Gold mixed: Big Debt
With MYEFO out of the way, here comes the next problem: China slowing. November house prices are out and the slowdown we’ve been awaiting has arrived with prices up just 0.3% on the month and 12.6% on the year: The eastern bubble cities have hit a brick wall: The big fall in year on year prices
Fitch ash affirmed the AAA. Now from Moody’s: The government’s decision to maintain the objective of a balanced budget by 2020-21 denotes continued commitment to fiscal consolidation. However, meeting the fiscal targets will be difficult in an environment of weaker nominal GDP growth. Its decision to depart from standard practice to assume that commodity prices
He just never learns. Having placed the nation on downgrade watch owing to lies in May, Treasurer Scott Morrison has doubled down in his MYEFO. He has downgraded the Budget outlook by $10.3bn over four years: But is still projecting a surplus in 2021: Even though has absolutely no way to get us there. Except
By Chris Becker As Festivus approaches, the Fed provided an early present with its long awaited and expected rate rise last week, sending markets into a temporary frazzle, the last impacting felt more on bonds and currencies rather than currencies. As is usual for Monday morning, I’ll step back and take a bigger picture view
The FT has a good take today on China’s ongoing USD problem: The dominance of bank lending and portfolio investment as a source of Chinese capital outflows casts doubt on whether Beijing’s recent clampdown on big-ticket foreign deals by the likes of Dalian Wanda and Anbang Insurance can shield the renminbi from downward pressure, intensified by
Macquarie as usual is the sell side research leader: Iron ore prices have remained disconnected to the fundamentals in our view since late October, ranging from $60-83/t despite clearly abundant supply of iron units (albeit shortages of some higher grade material, as we wrote previously). Iron ore prices now look set to average over
Friday night saw the USD come off a little and other majors rebound (except CNY): Commodity currencies all fell, Aussie most of all: Gold rebounded a bit: Oil too: Base metals began to sink: Big miners too: EM stocks were hit: EM and US high yield firmed: US bonds were bought: European spreads widened: Stocks
The levels of delusion in Coalition ranks are quite something to behold and media coverage on the weekend gives us some idea of why. Paul Kelly preens the PM: Turnbull goes to Christmas with a strong period as a transactional prime minister — having been more successful in parliament than many predicted — but facing
This nation is rapidly disappearing up its own cloaca at the AFR: The head of the former Abbott government’s budget audit commission, Tony Shepherd, has warned Australia is becoming a “banana republic” and that Monday’s budget update will confirm the nation is living beyond its means. Until Australians recognise and understand the scale of the
From The Australian: Avoiding deep scars on the jobs market from a full-blown economic recession is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s top priority, its new chief economist said in an interview. The fact that recessions can have a long-lasting impact on employment is one of the key lessons of the modern era, said Luci Ellis,
By Leith van Onselen The ABS on Thursday released its National Accounts: Finance & Wealth data for the September quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at a record $5.84 trillion dollars. As shown below, the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock was an all-time high 7.2 times incomes as at September 2016,
By Leith van Onselen On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its National Financial Accounts for the September quarter, which revealed a $15 billion (2%) decline in Australian banks’ gross external liabilities (offshore borrowings) in the September quarter, with borrowings also down 1% over the year. Bonds issued offshore (-$11 billion), One Name
I’ve watched Larry Kudlow for years on CNBC and marveled at his stupidity. It appears someone else was watching and liked what they saw, via The Atlantic: …Kudlow will reportedly be nominated to chair the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a position that will require him to advise the president on economic policy and
Iron ore charts for December 16, 2016: Spot flat. SGX paper down. DCE paper down more Friday night. Steel easing. Chinese iron ore port stocks up another 250k tonnes last week. Coking coal down again to $260. Thermal enjoying a dead cat bounce as North Asia freezes. Down remains the trend but in the
The Brent oil price was solid Friday night at $55.32. Henry Hub gas is at $3.39mmBtu: I haven’t been posting much on oil because post-OPEC cuts our course is more or less set. The price will hover between $50-60. And US shale will rocket back. Last week the rig count jumped another 12 to 450
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Preparing for Bentry, not Brexit – VOX Bitcoins 2016 rally crushed all other currencies – Bloomberg Big pharma to get bruised on new pricing regimes – FT The oil price each gulf state needs to balance its budget – Bloomberg (The Saudi’s need $75USD per barrel – lets hope it
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: 10 Reasons Why It’s a New Bull Market – Cabot Wealth Justin Trudeau: ’Globalisation isn’t working for ordinary people’ – The Guardian The Emerging Markets Hat Trick: Time to Throw Your Hat In? – researchaffiliates.com Trump May Be Turning China’s $1.16 Trillion Of Treasuries Into A Weapon – Forbes Is the Bond Market
by Chris Becker Asian markets are taking it steady at the end of a volatile week, with Japanese stocks the only ones with runs on the board as the Chinese bond and Yuan slides paused briefly. The USD remains strong against, well everything, while only oil is putting on gains, stabilising around the $50USD per
Via the ABC: A parliamentary inquiry established nearly two years ago to investigate housing affordability has made no recommendations, drawing strong criticism from the Opposition. The committee report came after a lengthy debate on negative gearing during the election campaign and amid skyrocketing house prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Last month, NSW Planning Minister Rob
From Bill Evans at Westpac: • The Treasurer will release the Federal Government’s MidYear Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) on Monday, December 19. • In the May Budget, the budget position was projected to edge into surplus in 2020/21, to around $4bn to $5bn. On our figuring, with a $6bn deterioration in the bottom line
Dalian is unchanged today but my sense is that the bubble is in a spot of bother as liquidity issues spread: Chinese yields are moon-shotting again today: Caixin is downright gloomy: China’s central bank stepped in to urge major commercial banks to lend to non-bank financial institutions on Thursday afternoon after many suspended interbank operations
From the Global Times: The US will not encourage Taiwan to declare independence, but in the meantime will not sit back and watch China use force to conquer Taiwan in any case, said Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, on Tuesday. He said the message US President-elect Donald Trump is sending
Cross-posted from The Conversation: Since the late 1970s it has largely been the consensus that “big government” is detrimental to growth. This manifested after the financial crisis when countries, including previously fiscally-comfortable countries like Germany and the UK, adopted austerity programs, ostensibly to spur growth by cutting government expenditure. But our research shows the story
