IMF warns on emerging market meltdown

From the IMF today comes a long and dangerous must read: Financial stability has improved in advanced economies Financial stability has improved in advanced economies since the April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report. This progress reflects a strengthening macrofinancial environment in advanced economies as the recovery has broadened, confidence in monetary policies has firmed, and

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Foreign buyers forcing up Melbourne home prices

By Leith van Onselen With Melbourne house prices on a tear, up by over 13% year-on-year, according to RP Data: Buyer’s advocate, Mal James, has issued a stern warning that Chinese buyers are pushing-up home prices, particularly in the eastern suburbs. From New Daily: “The ‘Chinese Phenomenon’ dominates our inner east market and is starting


Links 8 October 2015

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Did The Fed Save The World? Or was it deficits? – NY Times Banks’ Glencore Exposure Is a $100 Billion `Gorilla,’ BofA Says – Bloomberg Martin Wolf: Beware of the liquidity delusion – Financial Times Inside the Market of Stocks – theirrelevantinvestor.wordpress.com Venezuela Worst in World as IMF Forecasts


ASX at the close

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets If we focus specifically on the European open, then the recent positive price action should come to a temporary halt. Asian markets have been mixed on the day, but on the whole the momentum is running out of steam. A number of traders have been asking whether


JPM pushes out rate hikes as Elvis sighted

Some folks are in for a shock, JPM included, where Stephen Walters has cut his 2016 growth outlook to 2.6%  from 2.9% and pushed out his forecast for rate hikes from H2 2016 to H1 2017: I am particularly enamored of the mainstream economic fraternity’s assumption that business investment is only going to fall a little


China capital flight slows

From Fairfax: China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by a record last quarter as the central bank sold dollars to support the yuan after a surprise devaluation spurred bearish bets on the currency. The stockpile plunged by $US180 billion in the three months through September, the most in data going back to 1995, to $US3.51 trillion, according


Disastrous Origin duo take pay cut

In a Pyrrhic victory for shareholders Origin’s disastrous management team has taken a token pay cut: Having presided over the greatest capital mis-allocation in the history of Australia (no joke), it is incumbent upon these gents to fall upon their swords forthwith.


Xenophon labels TPP a “dud”

By Leith van Onselen Independent senator for South Australia, Nick Xenophon, has attempted to throw a wet blanket over the fanfare surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, labeling the agreement a “dud” and calling on its text to be made public: Independent Senator for South Australia, Nick Xenophon, said serious concerns remained over medicine


Pascoe: Super reform long-overdue

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Michael Pascoe has written a good article today ripping into Australia’s superannuation system, which he argues is long overdue for reform: You might have missed it if you blinked last week, but we suddenly seem to have something like consensus that the over-generous nature of our superannuation system for the


Netflix launch causes internet download spike

By Leith van Onselen The entry of online streaming services like Netflix, Presto and Stan in March this year has been hugely successful, with recent research by Roy Morgan suggesting that by August, market leader Netflix alone occupied over 850,000 Australian households, and reached some 2.2 million viewers (see next chart). Unsurprisingly, the huge growth


Lower dollar continues to juice tourism

By Leith van Onselen The rebound in Australian tourism has been one major bright spot for the Australian economy, helped along in no small part by the depreciation of the Australian dollar. As noted earlier this morning, the ABS’ overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for August, released yesterday, revealed an ongoing improvement in Australia’s


Fortescue closing in on asset sale?

From the AFR: Iron ore prices have retreated to a two-month low, which has been blamed partly on iron ore traders in China enjoying a week long national holiday. So it was curious that Fortescue Metals Group was the second best stock on the ASX-S&P 200 index on Tuesday, surging 5.9 per cent to $1.97.


First TPP gremlin accidentally divulged

By Leith van Onselen History never repeats but it sure does rhyme. Just over a decade ago, the Howard Government signed the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) amid much fanfare. The AUSFTA was marketed as a  transformational agreement that would deliver massive benefits to Australia over the longer term. However, when the dust settled, we


Construction PMI eases

From the AIG:  The national construction industry expanded for a second consecutive month in September, with a slight easing in the pace of growth from August.  The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/ Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) registered 51.9 points in September. This was above the critical 50


QLD taxi rentiers turn violent

By Leith van Onselen The fight between the Queensland taxi industry and ridesharing service Uber-X has gotten ugly, with two Uber drivers reportedly bashed in Fortitude Valley and Kangaroo Point early on Monday morning. Greg Collins, the owner of the Virginia-based cab company Complete Taxi Management, gloated about the incidents on the Brisbane Taxi Driver


TPP ecstasy grips nation, shame nobody knows what’s in it

By Leith van Onselen Listening to the commentary yesterday surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was hysterical. According to Trade Minister Andrew Robb, who issued two media releases on the subject (here and here), the TPP “will establish a more seamless trade and investment environment across 12 countries which represent around 40 per cent of global