This time it is different for housing

From Domainfax: If this is indeed the house price inflection point, it has happened before. In 2004, after the first boom of the century, Sydney dwelling values fell 8.2 per cent in 21 months according to analytics heavyweight, CoreLogic. In the wake of the financial crisis, the fall was 6.2 per cent in ten months; and in 2011-12 values fell 5 per

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ASX at the close

Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets Despite disappointing Chinese data, Asian stocks seemed to put concerns of a China crash behind them as they rallied strongly through the session. There were some major moves in the currencies as well with a strong risk-on move driving buying in the Aussie and


RBA holds

Surprising nobody: Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity


How $30 oil can bring down the global economy

From Fairfax: Energy consultant Dr Fereidun Fesharaki expects oil prices to slide to $US35 a barrel by the June quarter of 2016, in contrast to consensus forecasts which point to a gradual recovery from this quarter. He puts an “absolute floor” on prices in the high $US20s a barrel range, at which point onshore US and deep-water


A new “Li Keqiang Index” to destroy Australia

From the WSJ: Numerous banks and brokerage houses have since created versions of what’s known asthe Keqiang or Li Keqiang index. While their underlying components vary – some add passenger traffic or floor space under construction, for example – most suggest growth in the world’s second-largest economy is closer to 5% these days than the official 7%


Three year low for China PMI

The official China PMI is out for November and sank to a three year low of 49.6. Everything fell: It’s a competition between whether internal or external demand is falling faster. Remember that the various components of Chinese manufacturing represent 30% of steel consumption and there is nothing good going on here. Services were better rising


GDP partials mixed

From Westpac: Q3 net exports:  1.5ppts Net exports will add 1.5ppts to Q3 GDP. This exceeded expectations (mkt median 1.2ppts, Westpac 1.3ppts). Export volumes rebounded by 4.6%, to be 6.5% above a year ago (Westpac 4.4%qtr). Import volumes contracted by 2.4% (Westpac -2.0%qtr). The terms of trade declined by 2.3% to be 10.4% lower than


Australia’s terms-of-trade falls to new 9-year low

By Leith van Onselen Within today’s data dump of balance of payments data that feeds into tomorrow’s national accounts release for September was the important news that Australia’s terms-of-trade has fallen another 2.3% (seasonally adjusted) and 2.9% (trend) over the quarter to be down by 10.4% (seasonally adjusted) and 10.9% (trend) over the year (see


Unit approvals power past house approvals

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of October. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.9% to 19,652. The overall lift was driven by the volatile unit and apartment segment, which jumped by 10.6% in October.


PC: Family home must be in pension assets test

By Leith van Onselen The Productivity Commission (PC) has released a new research paper, entitled Housing Decisions of Older Australians, which examines the factors influencing the housing choices made by older Australians along with the intersection between the tax and transfer system. The Paper finds that “the vast majority of older Australians are living in


RP Data: Rental yields off canvas after price falls

By Leith van Onselen Following on from my post yesterday on RP Data’s daily dwelling values index results for November, Core Logic-RP Data has released its full results, which also cover the smaller capitals and regional areas (see next table). As you can see above, the smaller capitals and the regions had a mostly poor


Manufacturing PMI firms

From the AIG: The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI® ) improved by 2.3 points to 52.5 points in November, indicating a net expansion across the manufacturing industries. (Readings above 50 points indicate expansion). § November was the 5th consecutive month in which the Australian PMI® has been above 50 points


Gotti issues “Triguboff warning”

From the always shameless Gotti: Australia’s largest apartment owner and developer, Meriton’s Harry Triguboff, has issued an Australia-wide danger alert to all those involved in the dwelling market including owners, buyers, banks and politicians at the local, state and federal levels. If the Triguboff warning is not heeded, there could be some nasty losses, including in bank loans.


Lomborg: Your new climate correspondent

The loon pond has struck back today with PM Turnbull capitulating to his foaming internal opposition, from BS: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull won’t sign an international agreement to phase out fossil fuel subsidies amid concerns it could jeopardise Australia’s diesel fuel rebates. Mr Turnbull has opted out of signing the key fossil fuel subsidy reform


Varoufakis: Australia headed for recession

From Fairfax: “There will be a recession in Australia, because of the collapse of investment and because of the collapse of animal spirits – and this is because of what’s happening in China,” he said. In that scenario, a short, sharp shock would be preferable to the entrenched, or secular, low or zero growth pattern


Hedgie: Oz house prices are gonna crash

Check out this report by APT Capital Management: Australia’s Housing Bubble. Is the luck running out? While numerous aspects of Australia’s economy have experienced something of a setback in 2015, the housing market is surging on with all cylinders firing. As is clear from the chart below, prices have been rising fairly steadily for some time and