Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The world’s biggest gamblers – The Economist Why Value Investors Need “Mental Toughness” – Value Idea World’s Biggest FX Trader Says Trump Currency Talk Is ‘Hogwash’ – Bloomberg Olive Oil Prices Are Going Through the Roof – Bloomberg Bond trading platform boom a challenge for regulators, says IOSCO – Trade News Carbon compromise? – The
by Chris Becker So as Trump spits the dummy, stocks boomed across Asia, mainly due to increase Chinese exports, but also the growing sense of a free for all on Wall Street. This is leading to a lot more risk taking as bonds are dumped left, right and centre and stocks are bid again after
By Martin North, cross-posted from the Digital Finance Analytics Blog: Having looked at changes in investment loan supply, and the motivations of the rising number portfolio property investors, today we use updated data from our rolling household surveys to look at how property investors are positioned should mortgage rates rise. In fact, for many, rates
Dalian is roughly flat today after overnight gains: Big Iron is modestly up too though FMG’s possible double top still lurks: Big Gas is rebounding after OPEC minister comments supported oil: Big Gold is off. Not sure it can get much further unless Donald does something more stupid: Big Debt continues its sneaky bull market.
By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to September’s General Election, pressure continues to build on the incumbent National Government of New Zealand around the issue of housing affordability. Yesterday, Interest.co.nz’s David Hargreaves penned a stinging critique of National’s promise to boost housing supply in Auckland, which has fallen way below demand: This is a
From Goldman: Markets are worrying over the “true” intentions of the new administration. Concern that President Trump is mercantilist and may talk down the Dollar has seen the Dollar fall notably below the 2-year rate differential, as markets have priced a protectionist risk premium. Our last FX Views argued that this decoupling is unlikely to
From Bubble-o-Phil today: To this: This year’s growth has been shredded but worry not, the RBA always has a future boom at hand and despite a poor H1 this year, H2 is going to rocket to deliver an unchanged result of 3%. How? Overall, the forecasts for year-ended GDP growth are lower over the next
By Leith van Onselen Today’s housing finance data for December posted a 0.9% rise in the number of new home finance commitments (both construction and new), although commitments were down by 0.5% over the year: Looking at the state-by-state breakdown, which is presented below on a rolling annual basis since it is not seasonally adjusted,
By Leith van Onselen Today’s housing finance data for December, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted another monthly increase in finance commitments, with annual mortgage growth also rising. According to the ABS, the total number of owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) jumped by a seasonally adjusted 2.4% over the month to be
From the ABC: The National Debt Helpline says it is buckling under an unprecedented number of calls from Australians seeking financial counselling. As many as 14,000 phone calls went unanswered in January due of a lack of staff, and experts claimed Australia was on the verge of a debt binge hangover. It might start with
By Leith van Onselen The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its 2016 Article IV Consultation with Australia, issuing the following warning about Australia’s housing and debt risks: By some metrics, housing market conditions have cooled, in tandem with intensified prudential and regulatory steps, but risks related to house price and debt levels remain. In
As shrinkflation spreads the retailers tumble, via UBS: Discretionary retail news illustrates pressure in the sector The specialty apparel retail environment is showing signs of strain. In the past week, Rhodes and Beckett, Herringbone, David Lawrence and Marcs have entered Voluntary Administration. Together they represent 92 stores (excluding concessions). They join Payless shoes, Pumpkin Patch
The US Appeal Court in San Francisco has ruled against Trump’s immigration plan, in what is a huge blow to Trump and his administration . Whether this is a markets story is one thing, but all eyes have to now fall on Trump’s Twitter feed. With the loss of the appeal there will be outrage,
By Leith van Onselen Back in November, The Guardian published an interesting article arguing that Australia’s private health insurance system is broken and should be scrapped in its current form and replaced by a single health insurer: This drastic assessment has been prompted by numerous reports from government, consumer groups and peak health bodies over
For those with memory longer than yesterday, which cancels out most of Australia’s political economy, it is useful to recall that the US west coast experienced a rather torrid time at the turn of the millennium as a friendly company called Enron ran riot in power markets, via Wikipaedia: The California electricity crisis, also known
By Leith van Onselen It’s official. After months of speculation, the Turnbull Government will axe the National Housing Affordability Agreement (NHAG) in the upcoming Budget. From The Australian: The $9 billion National Housing Affordability Agreement is set to be axed in the May budget following a report revealing that the states and territories had failed
By Chris Becker The USD surged overnight bringing US and European stocks along for the ride as initial weekly jobless claims undershot significantly alongside some strong earnings. In Europe the script of good earnings and subsiding political risks (and no Tweets from the Twit-in-Chief – just another promise of tax cuts) was followed even as
Find below the first post by Tim Fuller, MB’s new super blogger and planning specialist at the MB Fund. Tim found MacroBusiness after a stint in the Pilbara and liked what he read. He has since jumped from constructing gas plants to constructing no nonsense financial advice for retail and sophisticated investors. Having spent a
Finally an issue that can bring together the rabble that is Australia’s Right wing political economy. They all hate climate change and energy transformation. The Australian loves the lie: Malcolm Turnbull has blasted Labor’s renewable energy “horror show” by seizing on blackouts in South Australia to warn of outages across the country under the “insanity” of
By Leith van Onselen Cognitive dissonance clearly runs riot inside RBA Governor, Phil Lowe’s, head. In his speech last night to global investors attending the A50 Australian Economic Forum in Sydney, Lowe told the audience that Australia has to lower corporate taxes to attract more foreign investment while simultaneously striving to balance the Budget: The
I know I predicted it but not even I thought McGrath would fall apart quite like this, down another -7% yesterday and -64% from the float: Via the AFR: While there was no obvious catalyst to the latest share price plunge, the company’s stock has been on a downward spiral since it issued an earnings
From RBA head, Backbone Phil, today: I would like to offer you all a very warm welcome to Sydney for the A50 Forum. To those of you who have travelled to our shores from afar, thank you for visiting. I am confident that you will find your investment in time a worthwhile one. In just
There is a lot of confusion and an unconscionable amount of politics swirling around the east coast power crisis today so I’ve tapped my sources to get some facts straight. Here’s what happened in SA: the heat wave rolling across the east is testing the grid in every state; NSW will be threatened today, coal
By Leith van Onselen Today, I want to explain why I expect the Turnbull Government to unleash some kind of first home buyer (FHB) stimulus in the guise of “housing affordability” in the upcoming May Federal Budget. 1. We have already received some hints: Last month, Michael Sukkar, whose responsibilities include housing affordability, refused to
I like mining. It’s a speculative game and takes a particular chutzpah to succeed. Sadly that same bravado translates into an absolute disaster at the policy level for the country in which it takes place. Witness yesterday. On one single day we had RIO announcing a handsome new profit complete with all sorts of capital
