5

ASX at the close

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets Certainly, the various polls are suggesting the ’yes’ camp has the upper hand, although this stance could still lead to increased uncertainty and the bookies subsequently expect Alexis Tsipras to step down on this development. On a ‘no’ vote, reports that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is

Latest posts

63

Greek polling backs “no” vote

Breaking from Reuters: 01-Jul-2015 12:25:33 PM – GREEK BAILOUT REFERENDUM OPINION POLL (RESPONSES BEFORE BANK CLOSURE) – YES 30 PCT, NO 57 PCT, DON’T KNOW 13 PCT 01-Jul-2015 12:25:33 PM – GREEK BAILOUT REFERENDUM OPINION POLL (RESPONSES AFTER BANK CLOSURE) – YES 37 PCT, NO 46 PCT, DON’T KNOW 17 PCT Grexit!

80

What will pop the property bubble?

Now that it is undeniable that Australia has a raging property bubble, we’re moving into a new phase of MSM spruik that that defends the sustainability of said bubble, a permanently high plateau as it were.  Fairfax uses UBS today to suggest nothing can bring the wonder down: Overall, housing is showing some bubble-like features, but

3

Gotti enters Australian dollar Twilight Zone

 From old man Gotti at Dad’s Army: It is now clear that China’s economy is slowing faster than the government would like, and so it has now intervened by lowering interest rates and stabilising the share market. …This makes the Reserve Bank even more anxious for a fall in the Australian dollar, which is holding stubbornly

19

Abbott: We will never touch taxes on super

By Leith van Onselen Tony Abbott is sticking to his “captain’s call” refusing to reform superannuation, reaffirming his stance this afternoon, via Business Spectator: Prime Minister Tony Abbott has ruled out ever increasing taxes on superannuation… “We have made a very clear decision that we aren’t ever going to increase the taxes on super,” Mr

3

BHP, RIO, FMG tank on futures

Is the great iron ore miner bust finally upon us? It’s still too early in my view but the fundamentals and technicals are fast slipping away and you never know. BHP and RIO are both down 2% or so today and are near technical breakdown. FMG is down 5% and right on terminal support around

8

Engineering construction tumbles off mining cliff

By Leith van Onselen The ABS has released engineering construction data for the March quarter of 2015, which revealed a 7.0% seasonally adjusted fall in the value of work done over the quarter, a 20.3% fall over the year, and an ongoing reduction in the construction pipeline. According to the ABS, private sector engineering construction

18

Apartment surge offsets weak houses

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of May. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.4% to 19,414. The overall rise was driven by the volatile unit and apartment segment, which surged by 16.6% in May.

0

Profiling Australia’s hedge funds

Cross-posted from Martin North: ASIC today published their report into the Australian Hedge Funds Industry. It draws from aggregated industry data and a survey to September 2014. Hedge funds comprise about 4% of managed funds in Australia, $95bn compared with $2,407bn. Superannuation funds accounted for approximately three-quarters of this total with nearly $1,789 billion in

17

UBS: Property has peaked

From the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS Macro-Prudential tightening takes effect In December APRA announced a heightened focus on sound lending practices and banks growing Investment Property Loan (IPL) credit above 10%. This was followed by a mortgage serviceability survey which found many practices that were “less than prudent”. Following communications with APRA the banks have tightened underwriting standards

3

US shuts Gina bank

From the AFR: The US government bank that has injected almost $10 billion into Australian resources projects, including Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill iron ore mine, is shutting down, leaving a potential funding hole for future mining development. US political conservatives have successfully waged an ideological war against the taxpayer-backed US Export-Import Bank, arguing it is

7

Why DFAT’s TPP consultations were a sham

By Leith van Onselen Last week, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) released a “fact sheet” attempting to dispel “common misconceptions” around the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – the US-led trade deal being negotiated between 12 Pacific Rim nations, including Australia. Amongst the topics covered was the notion that the TPP negotiations have been

1

Manufacturing PMI crashes back into recession

From the AIG, the one month manufacturing expansion is over: Activity across the manufacturing industry fell sharply in June, following a brief expansion in May. The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI® ) dropped by 8.1 points to 44.2 points this month (readings above 50 points indicate expansion), the lowest reading

30

Abbott’s ribald super “captain’s call”

By Leith van Onselen Tony Abbott’s “captain’s call” not to reform superannuation concessions has been further exposed, with The AFR revealing today that the Coalition was considering making changes to superannuation right up until the Labor opposition announced their policy to partially unwind concessions three weeks before the budget: In the letter, obtained following a

24

What on earth is holding up the Australian dollar?

The Aussie dollar has been outperforming over the past few days of Greek and Chinese drama hinting that it’s still hanging onto some of its former “safe harbour” glow. Let’s take another look at the MB five drivers model and see if we can figure out what’s happening. The five drivers are: interest rate differentials; global and Australian

3

Bill Gross: Go to cash

From Bill Gross who has been on something of a roll lately: Mutual funds, hedge funds, and ETFs, are part of the “shadow banking system” where these modern “banks” are not required to maintain reserves or even emergency levels of cash. Since they in effect now are the market, a rush for liquidity on the

18

Aussie household debt ratios hit record high

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday updated its quarterly financial statistics, which revealed that Australian household debt rose to an all-time high in the March quarter of 2015. The ratio of mortgage debt-to-disposable income hit a record 142.1% in March, up from the June 2010 peak of 134.7% (see next