6

ASX at the close

The talk among traders once again has been around moves in commodities and what that is saying about global growth. Doctor Copper is painting a fairly bleak picture, with LME copper and aluminium trading to, or near the lowest levels since 2009 today and CME copper futures trading to a new contract low today. Brent

Latest posts

11

Evans: Secular stagnation ends rate cuts

From Bill Evans: This week, RBA Governor Stevens gave an important speech to the Economics community. This annual speech, the Anika Foundation Luncheon, is the only event that he has spoken at every year since his first appointment as Governor in 2006. The market takes this speech very seriously and there are usually important insights

19

Chrome is to blame!

The Chrome bug is coming from the source at Google. Chrome automatically updates which is why many of you are affected but it also means it should fix itself soon as well. In the mean time use a different browser. Regards, The MB Team.

22

S&P again threatens sovereign downgrade

Fresh from S&P, here is another reason for Aussie weakness today: OVERVIEW The sovereign credit ratings on Australia benefit from the country’s strong institutional settings, its wealthy and resilient economy, and significant monetary and fiscal policy flexibility. The country’s high external and household indebtedness, as well as vulnerability to weakening commodity export demand, moderate these

16

How Keating missed the negative gearing boat

By Gavin Putland, cross-posted from the Land Values Research Group: The McKell Institute’s report on negative gearing (Richard Holden, Switching Gears, June 2015) concluded that negative gearing for future investors should be allowed only for new homes. I have been pushing that idea since 2003. But the McKell report, in its account of the Hawke-Keating government’s

5

Aussie dollar tanks with China Flash PMI

The newly named Caixin China Flash PMI is out and has missed badly to the downside: Flash China General Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.2 in July (49.4 in June). 15-month low.  Flash China General Manufacturing Output Index at 47.3 in July (49.7 in June). 16-month low. Data collected 13–22 July 2015. The Caixin Flash China

20

Inside Fortescue high-grading

From Deutsche: We retain our SELL on valuation (A$1.44/sh) and high debt levels. The dramatic drop in Life of Mine (LOM) strip ratios continues. Average 20 year LOM strip ratios are now expected to be 2.3:1 at the Chichester hub and 1.7:1 at Solomon. This has again been achieved through “blending and beneficiation” which has

3

Kill the population ponzi for cheap housing

By Leith van Onselen Former Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and New Zealand Treasury special adviser, Michael Reddell, is a rare breed. While working at the RBNZ last year, Reddell wrote a cracking paper questioning the merits of New Zealand’s high immigration program, which appears to have crowded-out (through higher interest rates and a high

50

Capt’ Glenn annihilates Bozo’s Budget outlook

I noted Wednesday that Capt’ Glenn’s embrace of notions of secular stagnation had punched a huge hole in Bozo Joe’s Budget outlook and today David Uren sticks his head through it to find a gaping maw: Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens’ warning on Wednesday that Australia’s potential growth rate may have fallen permanently would have

43

The myths supporting a Big Australia

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The ostensible purpose of the 2015 Intergenerational Report is to ensure Australia’s future prosperity in the face of demographic ageing over the next 40 years. Its real purpose is different. The Coalition won the 2013 election as the party of economic management, a party that would balance the books after years

19

HIA talks land tax sense

By David Collyer, cross-posted from Prosper Australia: The Housing Industry Association’s Harley Dale and the Urban Development Institute’s Michael Corcoran have called for the repeal of Stamp Duty in favor of a broad-based land tax, News Corp reports. Both lobby groups fear an extension of the GST to building products, which would be passed on

42

Flinders mulls Lomborg…ahem…grant

From The Australian: The Abbott government has held talks with Flinders University about hosting a major policy centre­ in Adelaide based on the methodology of controversial Danish academic Bjorn Lomborg. Education Minister Christopher Pyne has been searching for an institution willing to host the so-called Australia Consensus Centre, with $4 million in federal funds, since

3

All good in China stocks!

From Citi via FTAlphaville as the Shanghai rebound pushes to new highs: Sentiment indexes are in despair and investors want to get more bearish still — It is rather strange that an asset class which is already in despair according to our sentiment indicators, and where valuations range from 1 stdev-below-mean to mean in terms of