Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 17th, 2012 | 59 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Meet Harry Triguboff. For those who aren’t aware, Mr Triguboff is also known as “High rise Harry” and is the head of Meriton. Meriton is the largest developer of apartments in Australia, with around 50,000 under their name.
In early 2010, Mr Triguboff declared his interest in a “Big Australia” when he commented that he would like to see Australia’s population reach 100 million:
“I don’t think there will be 35 million but about 55 million,” he said on The 7.30 Report.
Without population growth, Mr Triguboff says the economy will...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 16th, 2012 | 0 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this morning released the Lending Finance data for March, which registered a large increase in the value of commercial finance commitments and smaller rises in both personal and lease financing commitments:
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of commercial finance commitments rose 8.8% in March, but remains well below pre-GFC highs:
The value of personal finance commitments rose 1.1% in March, although it too remains below the peak levels reached in 2010 and trending down:
Finally, the value of lease financing commitments also...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 16th, 2012 | 31 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released the labour price index for the March quarter of 2012. According to the ABS, in trend terms total wages (excluding bonuses) increased by 0.9% over the quarter, with private sector wages rising by 0.9% and public sector wages increasing by 0.7%. The outcome just beat analysts expectations, who had been expecting wages to grow by 0.8% over the quarter.
Over the year, total wages (excluding bonuses) have increased by 3.5% in trend terms, with private sector wages rising by 3.7% and public sector wages growing by 3.1%.
A chart...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property, Featured Article
on May 16th, 2012 | 62 comments
By Leith van Onselen
It’s been another poor week for the Australian housing market, with the RP Data-Rismark daily home price index recording a -0.29% decline in national capital city home values in the week ending 16 May 2012.
All major capitals, with the exception of Adelaide (+1.13%) suffered falls, with Perth (-0.64%) and Sydney (-0.50%) leading the way, followed by Brisbane (-0.44%) and Melbourne (-0.18%):
Australian capital city home values are down -0.84% so far in May, with Sydney (-1.80%), Melbourne (-0.63%), Brisbane (-0.47%) and Perth (-0.44%) leading the way and Adelaide (+1.60%) again...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property
on May 16th, 2012 | 80 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Following on from yesterday’s post showing a modest recovery in Queensland first home buyer mortgage commitments, below are some charts showing similar trends for Queensland taken from Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements, which were released earlier this week.
Like the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment statistics analysed last week, the DERM data is current to April 2012, so it leads the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Housing Finance data by one month.
First, below is a chart...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 15th, 2012 | 6 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released new motor vehicle sales data for the month of April:
On a seasonally adjusted basis, new motor vehicle sales fell by -0.7% in April, but were 7.3% higher over the year.
The reduction in sales over the month was driven by passenger motor vehicles (-2.6% MoM; -1.7% YoY) and special utility vehicles (-1.2% MoM; +29.8% YoY). By contrast, the sale of Other vehicles (+5.4% MoM; +7.0% YoY) bucked the trend, with strong growth recorded in April.
Turning to the time series which, due to volatility in the data have been prepared...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 15th, 2012 | 23 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Last month, I noted how Australian State Government Budgets are under increasing pressure from falling stamp duty receipts on the back of the slowing property market:
…last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Government finance statistics for the 2010-11 financial year, which revealed that Australia’s state and territory governments reaped a total of $12,331 million in stamp duty revenues in the financial year – an amount that was steady on the previous financial year but nearly -14% (-$2 billion) lower than the peak level reached in 2007-08 (see...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property
on May 15th, 2012 | 148 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Back in February, I made the following comments with regards to the upswing in housing finance commitments in December 2011 on the back of strong first home buyer (FHB) demand:
No doubt the housing-addicted broader media will argue that the recent upswing in housing finance commitments, as well as the renewed interest from FHBs, signals that the housing market is recovering and that solid price growth will soon return. I, however, urge caution in reading too much into these results.
We all know that the New South Wales (NSW) State Government announced in September 2011 that it...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 14th, 2012 | 7 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the March Housing Finance data this morning, which was largely a non-event.
According to the ABS, in seasonally adjusted terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance (46,275) rose by 0.3% in the month of March, with the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations falling by -0.5%.
The total number of finance commitments for owner occupied housing would have in fact have fallen in March had February’s figures not been revised down (from 46,322 to 46,117) by the ABS. Not that that...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property
on May 14th, 2012 | 81 comments
By Leith van Onselen
RP Data late last week released its Industry Market Wrap, which provides hard data on the number of homes for sale and rent across the nation.
The interesting aspect of this release is the sharp divergence between the number of homes for sale and the number of homes for rent.
As shown by the below table, the number of homes for sale in the week ending 6 May 2012 was some 13% (34,290) higher than in the corresponding week of 2011:
As you can see, R.P. Data also show that the number of new listings in the past month compared to the comparable month last year is down 21.5% but...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property
on May 11th, 2012 | 90 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The RP Data May Market Report is out and Australian home values were down -4.5% in the 12-months to end-April, and have fallen -6.1% since peak (see below charts).
Most key metrics have worsened over the past year, including:
Sales volumes:
Average days on market:
Average vendor discounts:
Number of homes for sale:
It’s interesting to note, too, that around 6.5% of homes around the nation are now worth less than their purchase price (likely much more when stamp duty costs are taken into account):
As you can see, the data in this report concludes at the end of...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 10th, 2012 | 48 comments
By Leith van Onselen
As The Prince reported earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this morning released the labour force data for the month of April, and like last month’s print, it is very good.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment increased 15,500 (0.1%) to 11,501,000. Full-time employment decreased 10,500 (0.1%) to 8,062,800 and part-time employment increased 26,000 (0.8%) to 3,438,200..
The below chart shows the changes in these components since April 2008. As you can see, this month’s employment gain of 15,500 persons caps-off two good months for the Australian...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 10th, 2012 | 5 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of taking part in a radio interview on the Renegade Economists show, which aired on 3CR Community Radio.
In a wide ranging interview, Prosper Australia’s Karl Fitzgerald (host) and I discussed, amongst other things, the evolution of MacroBusiness.com.au and Tuesday’s Federal Budget.
The interview can be streamed here. Readers can also access past Renegade Economist shows (here) or subscribe to their podcasts at the Apple iTunes Store...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 9th, 2012 | 21 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for March, which contained mixed fortunes for the tourism industry.
While short-term visitor arrivals increased by 1.9% over the month in seasonally adjusted terms, short-term resident departures rose by more, increasing by 3.0%.
In the 12 months to March 2012, the annual number of depatures increased by 10.0% relative to the corresponding period of the prior year, whereas arrivals rose by a more subdued 0.6%.
Taking a longer-term view, the ratio of annual tourism...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property, Featured Article
on May 9th, 2012 | 50 comments
By Leith van Onselen
It’s been a poor week for the Australian housing market, with the RP Data-Rismark daily home price index recording a -0.59% decline in national capital city home values in the week ending 9 May 2012. Australia’s three major capitals – Sydney (-1.20%), Melbourne (-0.55%), and Brisbane (-0.15%) – led the declines, with Perth (+0.45%) and Adelaide (+0.45%) bucking the trend (see below chart).
Since the beginning of the year, national capital city home values have now fallen by -1.44%, with most of these losses registered since April. Melbourne (-2.90%) and...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property
on May 9th, 2012 | 66 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Well it didn’t take long, the Federal Budget has only just been released (it’s 9.00pm Tuesday as I write this post), and already the Housing Industry Association (HIA) is complaining that the Government didn’t offer incentives aimed at reinvigorating Australia’s ailing home building market:
The Housing Industry Association, the voice of the residential building industry, is disappointed that tonight’s Federal Budget represents a missed opportunity to reinvigorate new home building activity and alleviate the nation’s housing affordability...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 8th, 2012 | 20 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released trade data for the month of March, and it’s an absolute shocker. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services recorded a deficit of $1,587 million in March 2012, a rise of $833 million on the deficit recorded in February 2012 (revised upwards from $480 million).
The market had expected a trade deficit of $1,300 million, so the result came in worse than expected, shaving half a cent from the Australian dollar.
The poor trade result was driven primarily by a sharp increase in imports. In seasonally...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 8th, 2012 | 13 comments
By Leith van Onselen
Yesterday’s strong retail sales figures, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), were generally greeted with enthusiasm in the media. For instance, Bloomberg reported the result as follows:
Australian retail sales rose at more than four times the pace that economists forecast, capping the best quarter since 2009 as consumers spent more at restaurants and clothing stores.
Sales adjusted to remove inflation jumped 1.8 percent in the three months through March from the prior quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. That was the biggest gain since...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 7th, 2012 | 4 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this morning released the retail trade data for the month of March, which registered a solid bounce in retail sales that beat analyst’s expectations.
In seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales rose by 0.9% in the month of March and by 3.7% year-on-year – more or less in line with both the rate of inflation and population growth. Analysts had predicted a rise of only 0.2% for the month.
Below is a chart summarising the monthly and annual growth rates by industry on a seasonally adjusted basis:
As you can see, it’s a mixed bag,...
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Economy
on May 7th, 2012 | 77 comments
By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released the Building Approvals data for the month of March. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 7.4% to 11,501, driven predominantly by a 15.5% increase in approvals for units and apartments, as well as large bounce in New South Wales (following last month’s sharp contraction). The result beat epectations, economists forecasting a only 0.4% rise.
In the year to March 2012, building approvals fell by 15.0%. The key figures are provided in the below table:
A chart showing the...
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