Iron ore price

11

Comrade Colin embraces the cartel

From Fairfax: Colin Barnett said there had been an over-reaction to Mr Forrest’s idea, including by Rio Tinto chief executive Sam Walsh, who labelled it a “harebrained scheme” and “absolute nonsense”. “I don’t think Andrew Forrest ever used the word cartel and I think the response has been a little bit exaggerated,” the Liberal leader

12

Fortescue ‘worthless’ at current ore prices

More scuttlebutt on Fortescue this afternoon, via The AFR: Fortescue’s stock is worthless at current spot iron ore prices, analysts at CBA calculate. Zippo, zilch… There is $US7.5 billion ($11.5 billion) in net debt squatting on Fortescue’s balance sheet. In Aussie dollar terms, that’s approaching twice the company’s market capitalisation – just a number, sure,

20

A big and bloody Pilbara wet builds

Some years ago I described what was coming in the iron ore market as “blood flowing through the gullies of the Pilbara”. We’re still a long way from that but the first trickles are beginning to run. The Twiggy Forrest’s outburst two days ago calling for a iron ore cartel has generated fantastic quote after

10

Mining “years” from bottom

From the AFR comes some sense at last: The managing director of Denham Capital, Bert Koth, also defied optimists who have called the bottom for commodity prices. “We believe we are still two years away from the bottom and then we are going to stay there for at least four to five years,” Mr Koth

5

Big iron ore sells as Twiggy rallies

It’s an about face today for big iron shares as BHP tumbles 1.5% and RIO ignores positive overnight leads to be down as well. FMG meanwhile is up 2.2%. Could we be seeing the dawning realisation that FMG is shaping as a disastrous spoiler for iron ore prices long term?   Idiocy spreads are still

20

Forrest defends his cartel

A nice scoop for Matthew Stevens at the AFR speaking with Andrew Forrest: “I just put the very simple argument that when we flagged our expansions in 2009-10, we were in a rising market and we spent the capital we did into that rising market. But the pursuit of market share and overall revenues has people

4

Twiggy sets the cartel among the pigeons

It’s a slow new day but today the short term nature of Australian economic thinking is abundantly on display after Twiggy Forrest’s iron ore cartel call yesterday. FMG defended the comments, from the ABC: Fortescue issued a statement saying there were provisions in the Competition and Consumer Act which made the comments OK. “Provisions … which

4

Daily iron ore price update (flame out)

Here are the iron ore charts for March 25, 2015: Qingdao and Tianjn spot were OK with benchmark iron ore falling 10 cents to $55.40. However, all other markets are howling “flame out” for the rally with Dalian at a new low this morning, 12 month swaps poised to join it and the rebar rally

41

ACCC to investigate Twiggy carteling call

You wouldn’t read about it! From the ABC: An investigation has been launched into Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest’s comments after the mining magnate suggested a cap on iron ore production, the chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said. Rod Sims warned Mr Forrest may have breached the law with his comments on ABC’s

3

Is RIO breaking down?

Here’s a bit of fun. I’m no card carrying technician but the action in RIO has been interesting this week as its price underperforms the general risk rebound. It’s down again today trading at $57 on soft foreign leads despite the rise in the iron ore price and a glance at the daily chart suggests

20

Forrest calls for iron ore cartel

What a beauty this is from the AFR: At a business dinner in Shanghai on Tuesday night, Mr Forrest, founder of the fourth biggest iron ore exporter, Fortescue Metals Group, said he was “absolutely happy to cap my production right now” at 180 million tonnes. He said the other major players, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton

4

Big iron hit on Chinese stutter

A little reality today for big iron with RIO down 1.5% following very positive offshore leads, BHP flat despite the oil price jump and FMG up 1% because it might sellout to the Chinese. To the indexes:   The idiocy spreads are still widening: And juniors still dying: No Dalian today, sorry!

19

MS cuts Fortescue

Here’s another one for the sell-side scrap heap from the SMH blog: Another analyst is turning bearish on Fortescue: Morgan Stanley has cut the iron ore miner’s shares to “underweight” with a price target to $1.65. “Previously we applied a positive stance predicated on an expectation of rising prices and a debt re-finance,” analyst Brendan

21

Crash of the iron boganaires

A raft of articles today show the pain being felt by Australai’s nouveau riche, the iron boganaires. From the top is Clive Palmer via The Australian: Tim Murray, managing director of Beijing-based J Capital ­Research, has developed fresh modelling that estimates the break-even cost for the Sino Iron mine is $US70 a tonne — well

1

Daily iron ore price update (bouncy)

Here are the iron ore charts for March 23, 2015: Spot is weak with Qingdao up marginally and Tianjin benchmark down 1.5% to a new low of $54.20 (charts to come). However, paper markets are bouncing along with the global risk on shift around US dollar weakness. Dalian closed soft yesterday but took off overnight and

5

Iron ore miners wait for direction

Big iron iron is treading water today with BHP up solidly with oil but RIO down slightly ignoring the positive lead from London and FMG down a bit more. To the indexes: The idiocy spreads have begun to widen once more: Junior death: Dalian is still down 6 points from Friday hinting at another spot

21

CLSA cuts bulks but not enough

From The Australian: CLSA lowers its commodity price forecasts and trims its earnings estimates for a number of Australian miners, with Rio Tinto (RIO) marked down Underperform from Outperform and Alumina (AWC) lowered to Sell vs Underperform. Downgrades follow continued US dollar strength, falling production costs, and weaker Chinese demand, although the broker has also

3

China to ramp steel mill closures

From Reuters: Many loss-making Chinese steel mills could finally be ready to shut their doors this year, with the government expected to offer more incentives for stricken enterprises to close as the economy slows and a war on smog intensifies. For years, hundreds of poorly-regulated mills dodged policies aimed at solving the perennial problems of

1

World steel production rebounds

From the World Steel Association: World crude steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 128 million tonnes (Mt) in February 2015, a 0.6% increase compared to February 2014. China’s crude steel production for February 2015 was estimated at 65.0 Mt. The total production for January and February 2015

9

Daily iron ore price update ($40s)

Here are the iron ore prices for March 20, 2015: Qingdao spot declined further but Tianjin benchmark rose 50 cents to $55. 12 month swaps are being annihilated and Dalian six month futures are trading down another 6 points at 430 this morning. Not much fun. Texture from Bloomberg: “There’s room for iron ore prices