Iron ore price

Viewing posts in the Iron ore price category

Iron ore miners fall as futures hold

hjki It's a decent day today for the big miners with BHP only down a little and RIO a bit more. FMG is on the nose again down 2%+. Here is the relative performance chart: The idiocy spreads are stable: The juniors are still supping the hemlock:   Dalian six month futures are...
read more

Goldman on iron ore in 2015/16

zdfa From Goldies: What next? Two scenarios for 2015-16 We expect Chinese steel production to grow by 2% and believe that further upside from stimulus spending is highly unlikely given the shift away from investment-led growth that is unfolding across the economy. The market needs to absorb a c.110Mt surplus in 2015, roughly double the c.60Mt surplus it absorbed this year via mine closures and restocking at Chinese ports. Our price forecast assumes that mine closures continue in China as the price differential with imported ore narrows and domestic producers are fully exposed to US$80/t seaborne...
read more

China steel mill sentiment edges above disastrous

sgw A few charts below from Mac Bank's monthly Chinese steel mills survey: The October results of our proprietary steel survey show a modest improvement in conditions after September’s sharp contraction. Steel traders report improving sales and falling inventory, mill orders are contracting less quickly and profitability appears to stabilising at much better levels than previous troughs. For raw materials, purchasing plans still seem muted and stock overhangs are still pressuring prices. No plans to restock: And no evidence of any turn in property orders but exports are...
read more

Daily iron ore price update ($67 in May)

anvil Here are the iron ore charts for October 23, 2014: That's some poor price action. Paper is tanking again, including rebar futures. 12 month swap hit a new post-GFC low. Dalian is rolling. It's May contract was crushed and is now pricing 521 yuan or $67 equivalent. Reuters has texture: Amid slowing economic growth in China, demand for steel is unlikely to see "any obvious improvements", the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said in a report published on its website on Wednesday. "And with steel production remaining at a high level, oversupply will worsen, steel prices are unlikely to...
read more

Big four miners flood Fortescue

Capture Yes, it's all iron ore go at the big miners. Anglo-American has joined the party. From Bloomie: Anglo raised its full-year iron-ore production forecast to a range of 45 million tons to 46 million tons from 44 million tons to 46 million tons, after third-quarter output jumped 37 percent from a year earlier, the London-based company said in a statement today. It plans to start shipping iron ore from the $8.8 billion Minas Rio project by the end of this year. ...“Work on the Minas Rio project continues, with significant progress made to deliver first ore on ship,” Anglo said. “Commissioning and...
read more

Iron ore miners fall sharply with futures

dfgsws The big miners are all down today, almost 2% for RIO and BHP and 3% for FMG. There was a brief flurry around the insipid China PMI suggesting that traders are as bored as I am but that's selling into the afternoon. To the relative performance charts: With the recent price rebound, the idiocy spreads have shed a few extra IQ points and are now trading at the level of a gap-toothed moonshiner. At least the moron cross has receded: The death's head is still shadowing the prices of the juniors. Even poor Atlas can't find a bid with its heroic cost cutting efforts: In China, Dalian...
read more

How much iron ore production has shut?

fgwe From Morgan Stanley: What’s required for a rebalance? Assuming no  operations close and producers deliver what has been  guided, we estimate the global seaborne iron ore market  (including domestic Chinese production) would be in a  71Mt surplus in 2014. By next year, the surplus will rise  another 86Mt. These figures are the magnitude required  of material to exit the market to achieve price stability. Industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie,  estimates 52Mt of Chinese domestic iron ore capacity  has so far been permanently removed as a result of low prices. So far, the group claims, all...
read more

Atlas slams into iron ore price deck

ATLAS-IRON-LOGO---FINAL Atlas Iron has released its Q3 production update and it's an admirable effort: All-in cash costs* A$68.90/wmt CFR for the September 2014 Quarter, down from $75/wmt in the June 14 Quarter > C1 cash costs $48.10/wmt (wet basis, FOB and excluding royalties) for the September 2014 Quarter, down from A$51/wmt in the June 2014 Quarter > Average headline price of US$69.62/dmt CFR received for Standard Fines over the September 2014 Quarter, after adjusting for US$5.24/dmt of negative provisional pricing adjustments > Competitive product discount of circa 10% achieved, resulting in average...
read more

Daily iron ore price update

dfbw Her are the iron ore charts for October 22, 2014: Singapore was closed so no iron ore prices. The rebar average rally powered on but futures fell sharply again. Sensible enough given it's the Hebei effect described yesterday. That's it...
read more

Iron ore miners rally over futures

djh It's rally day for everyone today, with the iron ore majors up strongly all over: The idiocy spreads are clearly widening again now: Juniors are mixed but mostly still gasping for breath: Dalian futures are down 3...
read more

West Pilbara lunacy revs up

Capture From the West Australian: China's Baosteel has signalled that sagging iron ore prices will not hold back development of its West Pilbara iron project, recruiting former Iron Ore Holdings boss Alwyn Vorster to head up its local iron ore business. Mr Vorster confirmed yesterday he had accepted the role as general manager iron ore at Aquila Resources, delisted from the stock exchange earlier this year after Baosteel and Aurizon closed a $1.4 billion takeover. The poor outlook for iron ore prices has industry watchers discounting the likely development of multibillion-dollar iron ore projects,...
read more

BHP unleashes iron ore tide

Capture The BHP third quarter production report is out iron ore is fountaining from the big Australian: Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) production increased by 15 per cent in the September 2014 quarter to a record  62 Mt (100 per cent basis) as the ramp-up of Jimblebar continued ahead of schedule and we improved the  availability, utilisation and rate of our integrated supply chain. In addition to the strong operational performance  achieved at our mines, a higher proportion of direct to ship ore increased outflow capacity at the port and facilitated  record sales volumes of 63 Mt (100 per cent...
read more

Charlie Aitken says buy iron ore

l8yg Charlie Aitken reckons iron ore and oil have bottomed: Importantly also for Australia, and I may well be on my own saying this, but I think the iron ore price has bottomed for the year and will track higher ($95t target) on seasonal restocking from China. It also appears spot Oil prices have bottomed and will also edge higher. Last night the base metal complex also bounced on Chinese GDP data and if I am right and our key commodity prices have stopped falling, and in fact start edging a little higher, you will see buying coming into the beaten up Australian resources sector. You can ONLY make...
read more

Daily iron ore price update (Hebei)

anvil1-200x20011 Find the latest iron ore charts below: Paper markets were mixed. Although Dalian 6 month future were firm, they are still pricing in the mid $70s for January delivery once taxes and charges are removed. 12 month swap weakness is a concern. These markets have been way oversold yet the working off of excesses is taking the form of a sideways grind not a bounce, illustrating muted support. The spread to spot is very wide even allowing for the premium on Qingdao prices and will close one way or another. If the swap market doesn't pick up, spot will fall. Underlining the physical versus paper...
read more

Iron ore juniors not waving, drowning

drowning The race is well and truly on now. Locally, Cape Lambert Resources is thought to be ready to: ...announce it will contribute around $US20 million ($22.7m) into a financing package that will be funnelled into a distressed bulk commodities asset in Africa. In return, it will pick up a royalty on future production that could start generating money for Cape Lambert before the year is out. The obvious candidate for the package would be London Mining... London Mining is a 5-6 million tonnes operation out of Sierra Leone that is projected to reduce costs to $40 per wet metric tonne (wmt) when it's...
read more

World steel growth stops

From the World Steel Association today: World crude steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 134 million tonnes (Mt) in September 2014, a slight decrease of -0.1% compared to September 2013. China’s crude steel production for September 2014 was 67.5 Mt, the same compared to September 2013. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan produced 9.2 Mt of crude steel in September 2014, a decrease of -0.5% compared to September 2013. In September 2014, India produced 6.8 Mt of crude steel, an increase of 2.5% compared to the same month 2013. South Korea produced 5.7...
read more

Baltic Dry rockets most ever

article-1341521-0C93F69C000005DC-905_964x639 I've given up on this index as a leading indicator of anything but it's probably worth noting that the Baltic Dry capesize component rocketed the most ever yesterday, from Bloomie: Daily rates for Capesize vessels hauling about 160,000 metric tons of the commodity jumped 38 percent to $12,580 today, according to the Baltic Exchange in London, a shipping bourse tracking freight rates on more than 50 routes. The advance was the biggest in percentage terms in data starting in March 1999. Costs climbed by more in dollar terms in December. ...“We’re seeing an increased push towards Chinese volume...
read more

Iron ore miners rally on China data

fdhgre As I've already described, the China data release was very clearly commodities negative but only in the longer term and miners are still rallying on market relief. BHP and RIO are up firmly and FMG is flying on the MS upgrade: The idiocy spreads are widening again as markets rebound from the recent swoon: Juniors, however, are still pushing up daisies: Dalian iron ore prices continue their rally as well, up 1%...
read more

MS upgrades Fortescue

Capture From the eternal optimists at Morgan Stanley: We expect iron ore prices to stabilise above US$85/t. We forecast debt reduction and increased dividends on this basis. EBITDA is flat on our base case, but we identify upside elements that could contribute inforward years. We upgrade Fortescue to OW. Equity price decline has created the upside: Our valuation and forecasts are largely unchanged. The equity is trading below a spot price scenario valuation, A$3.95/sh, and our base valuation of A$4.69/sh. We still allow for a bear side skew in our PT, but at A$4.30/sh there is sufficient upside...
read more

Daily iron ore price update (iron snoreting ends)

anvil1-200x2001 Here are the iron ore charts for October 20, 2014: Better price action. Paper markets were solid though don't forget that once charges and taxes are removed Dalian is still pricing in the mid-US$70s for January delivery. In physical, spot was firm too and the rebar rally continued, however it remains very much driven by price rises in Hebei which are artificial given the looming APEC shutdown. Baosteel and China Steel (in Taiwan) cut prices. In an interesting development, Chinese port stocks of iron ore fell by 1.35 million tonnes last week. As I always say, one must be cautious in...
read more

Pettis on $50 iron ore and why Australia is Spain

images Find below an excerpt from a Michael Pettis post that pretty much captures everything that MB has been arguing since it was created (in part thanks to Michael Pettis!) After last week’s tumultuous markets one of my clients sent me an email saying “I am so relieved your constant talk about worsening imbalances kept us from getting too complacent. Things really are as bad as you keep saying.” I am not sure that what happened last week is proof of anything I’ve been saying, but I do think that the framework I have used over the past decade has been useful, at least to me, in understanding both...
read more

Iron ore miners miss rally

dsgfwe It's all good today in markets, exception for iron ore miners. Most are in the green but only just except BHP which has managed a little better. All opened strongly and have sold all day. All charts are going sideways:    Despite Chinese iron ore futures being up...
read more

Moody’s warns of iron ore downgrades

imgres Nothing really new here expect the threatened downgrades from Moody's: The growing oversupply in the iron ore market is damaging for the sector and poses risks to the downside. We estimate over 300 million metric tons (MT) of new and expanded production will come on-stream over the next several years. In light of expectations for muted growth in global steel production for at least into 2016, the lack of equilibrium will continue to weigh negatively on prices and operating performance of iron ore producers. As a result, we have revised our price sensitivity for iron ore for the period...
read more

APEC shutdown to weigh on iron ore?

url From Mac Bank: Three weeks before the APEC conference in Beijing, the city has suffered another bout of “airpocalypse” with air quality measures reaching the “hazardous” level three days in a row. While at least part of the cause has been linked to agricultural fires following the autumn harvest, the response has reportedly been to order shutdowns and output restrictions of heavy industry in the surrounding area over 1-12 November. All steelmaking and coking plants within 100kms of Beijing will be required to close – a relatively small impact as there is limited capacity so close to...
read more

Margin squeezes junior iron ore miners

28755_300 In its Q3 production update, Arrium announced this morning: Record shipments of 3.45Mt (dmt), up 0.29Mt on prior quarter  Sales of 3.29Mt (dmt), down 0.03Mt on prior quarter  Achieved targeted annualised sales rate of 13Mtpa  Average Platts market index price (62% Fe CFR) US$90/dmt, down US$12/dmt on prior quarter  Average realised price ~US$73/t CFR (dmt), down US$12/t on prior quarter  Average realised price ~A$78/t CFR (dmt), down A$14/t on prior quarter  Average grade of shipments 59.9% Fe, average for prior quarter 59.6% Fe  Average cash cost loaded on ship...
read more
Page 1 of 5112345...102030...Last »