Iron ore price

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Alert: The Australian Treasurer is lost on China

Yesterday the AFR praised Australia’s real estate Treasurer: Scott Morrison has done what his two immediate predecessors failed to do. In what may be remembered as an important early speech in his tenure as Treasurer, Mr Morrison on Thursday outlined in some detail the huge risks to the Chinese economy. Rather than trot-out the standard

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Winners and losers in the global steel rebound

From Macquarie: July’s global steel crude output data, as released by worldsteel yesterday, shows world ex-China output to have recovered to positive YoY territory for the first time in over 18 months. This, coupled with China’s relative resilience reinforces the view that the global industrial recovery is gathering some momentum – something we covered in

2

Dirt dumped as Dalian crashes

Another round of Big Iron bust is upon us. Whether it is “the bust” yet who knows?! Dalian is now down -5% on the day with BHP is -1.5%, RIO -1.4% and FMG -4.2%: Lot’s of room for retracement when it comes… Big Gas is also stinking it up although WPL is up again 1.2% despite weak oil while OSH sinks

14

WA agonises over new RSPT

From the ABC: The Nationals’ proposed tax increase on the two biggest iron ore miners would pose sovereign risk issues, WA’s State Development Minister says, as Labor continues to seek to drive a wedge between the two government alliance parties. The Minister, Bill Marmion, said any changes to state agreements that were not made cooperatively

0

Daily iron ore price update (restocking)

Iron ore charts for August 23, 2016: Spot strong with Tianjin benchmark up 0.8% to $61.60. BHP and RIO jumped 4% and 3% in London. Dalian lost some of yesterday’s gains overnight. Singapore strong. Rebar strong. Reuters has texture: “Generally speaking, steel fundamentals are strong, and mills are making a big profit and restocking iron ore,

3

Hockeridge: You’re fired!

I recently asked why Lance Hockeridge hadn’t got the boot following his Aquila shocker:   Turns out that he has: Rail haulage group Aurizon is considering external candidates to replace chief executive Lance Hockridge, with the company’s board expected to decide on a successor next week. The rail group is believed to have received a shortlist of three external candidates

6

Goldman rains on Fortescue parade

From Goldies: Solid result, costs to be sustained at sub-US$15/t The result posted by FMG’s management today is a solid one, which reflects the strong operational performance of FMG. The company continues to do a good job in controlling controllables, in our view & its war on iron ore costs continues with guidance of US$12-

3

When the mining rally turned really stupid

When Monadelphus took off it should have been a warning to investors that the mining rally had turned really stupid. And today they get their reward, from The Australian: Engineering contractor Monadelphous is continuing to pivot away from the resources sector towards the oil and gas industry as the mining downturn continues to put pressure on

1

CS downgrades Fortescue

From Credit Suisse: ■ FY16 highlights: EBITDA of US$3.195bn vs CS at $3.245bn (cons. $2.98bn). Net profit at $985mn versus CS at $1.1bn. Dividend for FY16 at A$0.15 for the full year (final div of A$0.12), fully franked (payout ratio 36%). Net debt was US$5.2bn (known) excluding pre-payments. Pre-payment balances were $571mn at 30 June.

1

Fortescuemania!

The triumph of Fortescue is upon us. Matthew Stevens sees world-class management: Anyone looking for reassurance that Australia boasts some deep pockets of home grown, world class, executive talent need look no further than annual results offered to the market on Monday by BlueScope Steel and Fortescue Metals Group. At The Australian it sees a river of

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Is mining in a new boom?

This kind of stuff is simply wrong: It’s boom time for mining stocks, says Lion Selection, prompting the LIC focused on junior miners to move its investment clock to 7. “Equity prices have been driven by investors buying back into the sector, however this is not the only money flowing in,” Lion says, noting anincrease in capital raisings. “Miners

20

The extraordinary Fortescue disappoints

Fortescue’s full year is out: So ends one the most extraordinary corporate transformations in modern Australian history.  From a $90 all-in breakeven fours years ago, FMG is now in the low $30s. In 2012 the firm was negotiating with banks to waive debt covenants and cancelling expansion plans, today it has nearly halved its total debt

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Upgrading the MB commodity price and Aussie dollar outlook

Today I’m going to upgrade my short term outlook for iron ore, LNG prices and the Aussie dollar. I don’t cover coal in detail but it is also clear that both versions of it will remain strong in the near term. All are based on the way in which macro and market structure factors combine over

7

A warning for Fortescue shorts

The Fortescue rocket has ignited again today, up 3.5% and blasting to a new rally high: The reason is straight forward. It’s not Banana Man today, it’s Macquarie Bank:  Iron-ore prices continue to trade above our expectations and if sustained present material upside risk to our base case forecasts for FMG. Macquarie’s latest China Steel Survey suggests