Do-Nothing Malcolm’s faux war over the dead-and-buried Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has reached farcical proportions, with the Prime Minister now claiming that Labor is risking Australian jobs by not ratifying the pact. From The Australian:
The Prime Minister yesterday branded the Opposition Leader a “shallow populist” for pulling the rug from under the Trans-Pacific Partnership…
Mr Turnbull accused Mr Shorten of betraying the interests of Australian families as well as Labor’s own free-trade legacy…
The Prime Minister took aim at Mr Shorten for undermining the interests of Australian families, whom he argued would benefit from jobs created by the entry into force of the TPP that was championed by outgoing President Barack Obama as a symbol of the US “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region.
“Bill Shorten is a shallow populist. He is a disgrace to the legacy of economic reform that his predecessors as leaders of the Labor Party demonstrated, (Bob) Hawke and (Paul) Keating in particular,” Mr Turnbull said.
You can’t make this stuff up.
First, under the terms of the signed TPP, the pact cannot survive if the US pulls-out. This is because 85% of the combined GDP of member nations must remain in tact for the deal to proceed. With the Trump Administration confirming as recently as the weekend that it will tear-up the deal as soon as it takes office, the TPP is looking dead as a dodo. So why on earth should Australia rush to ratify the TPP when the deadline is not for another 14 months (two years after initially signing)?
Second, this whole notion that the TPP represents some kind of jobs bonanza for Australia is a bald faced lie. Modelling by the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University found that the TPP “would lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality”, with employment in Australia estimated to contract by 39,000 jobs:
For its part, modelling by the World Bank found that “by 2030, the TPP will raise member country GDP by 0.4-10 percent, and by 1.1 percent, on a GDP-weighted average basis”. This might sound impressive, but these are cumulative increases to 2030.
And here’s the break-down by country, which shows that Australia would receive a cumulative bump-up in GDP of just 0.7% by 2030, or 0.07% extra growth annually if we assume that the agreement comes into place by 2020:
- Vietnam – 10%
- Malaysia – 8%
- Brunei – 5%
- New Zealand – 3.1%
- Singapore – 3%
- Japan – 2.7%
- Peru – 2.1%
- Mexico – 1.4%
- Canada – 1.2%
- Chile – 1%
- Australia – 0.7%
- US – 0.4%
So, according to the modelling, the TPP would provide only a tiny boost to output along with job losses. Hardly sounds like a groundbreaking deal that deserves so much focus from the Prime Minister, does it? Especially given the biggest economy in the pact has already declared that it will kill the deal.
Again, stop wasting everybody’s time Malcolm and start addressing the real issues affecting the nation.
