The only credible institution in world banking, and the only one that warned of the GFC, today warned on the Mining GFC:
The growth of debt in the emerging economies has been dramatic, as shown in Graph 1. The left-hand panel shows the level of private credit as a proportion of GDP in the emerging economies compared with that in advanced economies. We see that although the level of private credit is higher in the advanced economies, the growth trajectory in the emerging economies has been very steep. Since 2009, the average level of private credit as a proportion of GDP has increased from around 75% to 125%.
The slightly declining line of the advanced economies’ non-financial private sector debt hides significant differences among countries. Among the G20 economies, two have decreased private debt by 20 percentage points of GDP or more, while seven countries have increased debt by 20 percentage points of GDP or more.
