Commodities

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Daily iron ore price update (cuts)

Iron ore prices for February 27,2017: Spot up. Paper down overnight. Coking coal futures deflating again but still enjoying a huge contango to spot presumably on the assumption of more Chinese mine closures. Steel mill margins are looking good as coking coal deflates. The trigger yesterday was more mooted steel output cuts, via MB: The

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China mulls further commodity futures curbs

Via Bloombergo: China’s top economic planner is investigating whether speculation has distorted commodity futures prices, due to concerns that the recent rally will drive inflation higher, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The National Development & Reform Commission this month questioned futures brokers on whether distortion had occurred, said the people, who asked

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Measuring global reflation

Some nice charts here from Morgan Stanley: Global reflation continues to gain momentum, amid upside inflation surprises in DM and EM. Inflation is now close to DM central bank targets. We recently raised our China CPI/PPI forecasts and see upside risks to inflation projections globally. Global inflation surprised on the upside in December and January

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China steel mill sentiment rockets (or does it?)

From Macquarie: Our survey respondents are the most bullish they’ve been in over five years. This bullishness is clearly reflected in recent price moves in steel and iron ore. Source: Macquarie Bank The bullish sentiment is reflecting expectations for post Chinese New Year demand rather than recent orders…orders have been more subdued as is to

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LNG saved!

The LNG industry flackers have been busy. First we had Bartho telling us LNG was saved, now it’s the AFR: Pakistan, Colombia and Jordan are some of the unlikely saviours of an LNG production industry slammed by the collapse in oil prices. The three count among 2016’s new importers of natural gas transported by ship, to be followed

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Daily iron ore price update (bears everywheres)

Spot down. Paper flat. Steel still rising. Coals deflating. Bears are everywhere now with BHP and FMG warning on overheated prices. It’ll pop when it pops. Nobody does bubbles like the Chinese. Longer term, nothing has changed, via the AFR: “The future is kind of pessimistic,” said Frank Zhong, the chief representative of the World

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Market applauds Domainfax’s evil plan

Iron ore futures are flat after overnight falls suggesting a decent hit tomorrow but holding on despite Chinese house prices and sagging coking coal futures. The miners are down: Big Gas is weak despite strong oil. OSH is flying on a Goldman upgrade: Big Gold appears headed for a correction: The Big Debt bull is still

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What does the BHP result tell us about growth?

Via Deutsche: Remains a FCF and de-gearing story near term BHP has reported 1H FY17 underlying NPAT of US$3.2b and EBITDA of US$9.9b, slightly above our US$3.0b and US$9.8b estimates respectively. Operating cash flow was strong and net debt decreased by US$6b HoH to US$20.1b, but was assisted by a US$2b non-cash benefit. Capex guidance

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Inside China’s North Korean coal ban

From Stephen Haggard at the Pieterson Institute for International Economics. Beijing announced the following: “In order to implement the NSC Resolution No. 2321, according to the Foreign Trade Law of the PRC, MOFCOM Announcement No. 81 of 2016, China suspends coal imports from North Korea for the rest of the year (including shipments that have been

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Fortescue blasts to new highs

The Big Iron rocket is punching skywards again today as Dalian adds another 1% to overnight gains: FMG is powering towards its highest intraday price since the GFC and will presumably break the closing price today: A technician would suggest an $8 target then on to the all time high. Macquarie has more on what could

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Should LNG be nationalised to cut your gas bill?

From Credit Suisse comes the following assessment of east coast gas cartelier, Santos: ■ Largely uneventful result Underlying CY16 NPAT came in at US$63m, the top end of a very wide consensus range, but below our ~US$90mn estimate. The long awaited CY17 production cost guidance was relatively uneventful too, seemingly broadly flat at US$8-8.50/boe vs

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Big Iron up as China boosts coking coal

Big Iron is firm today as China has announced the suspension of coking coal imports from North Korea. Not a trivial amount of 22mt. Dalian is 1.5% and coking futures a bit more. Of the majors only FMG is up, however, for no obvious reason: Big Gas likewise is looking a bit toppy: Big Gold