Australian housing construction implodes

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The Albanese government’s fairy-tale target of building 1.2 million homes over five years, or 60,000 homes per quarter, keeps getting crushed.

Albo's housing target

Dwelling approvals data for March, released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), revealed that dwelling approvals fell by another 1.1% in March in trend terms to their lowest monthly level since April 2012:

Dwelling approvals monthly
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On an annualised basis, there were only 150,120 homes approved for construction in March in trend terms, which is around 90,000 below the Albanese government’s annual housing target.

In the year to March 2024, there were only 162,600 homes approved for construction, around 77,000 fewer than the Albanese government’s target and the lowest level since March 2013:

Annual dwelling approvals
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The following chart plots the various measures of housing construction—approvals, commencements, and completions—against the nation’s population change on an annual basis:

Dwelling construction vs population change

As you can see, dwelling construction has collapsed to at least decade-lows at the same time as population growth has surged by a record 660,000.

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This explains why Australia is experiencing its worst ever rental crisis, with vacancy rates at record lows and rental prices soaring.

Asking rents

With population growth via net overseas migration expected to exceed supply for the foreseeable future, the situation facing renters will only deteriorate further.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.