Albo lies his way out of rental crisis

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New data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that at the end of February, the number of international students in Australia hit a record high of 713,144, whereas the number of temporary migrants in Australia hit a record high of 2.8 million (nearly 2.4 million excluding visitors).

The below charts from Justin Fabo at Antipodeam Macro plot the surge.

The number of student visa holders in Australia was running around 80,000 above the pre-pandemic peak:

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Whereas the number of temporary visa holders excluding visitors is around 400,000 above the pre-pandemic peak:

Temporary visa holders in Australia

The data follows the record 549,000 net overseas migration recorded in the September quarter of 2023, which dove record population growth of 660,000:

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Australian population change

The latest surge in temporary migration has made a mockery of the Albanese government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) forecast that Australia’s net overseas migration would fall to 375,000 in 2023-24. It will exceed this level by a wide margin.

The record net overseas migration explains why Australia is experiencing an unprecedented rental crisis. Rental vacancy rates are at a record low of around 1%, and advertised rents have surged following the reopening of the international border to overseas migrants in late 2021.

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Median advertised rents

As usual, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues to gaslight the public about the record numbers of student and temporary visas, claiming that Australia’s population is smaller than it would have been had the pandemic not happened.

Albanese told ABC Brisbane on Tuesday that the “population is lower than it was anticipated to be prior to the pandemic, and the figures have shown that’s the case”.

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“Because all the borders were shut for the period of time, there has been a higher than normal influx of students, in particular, temporary migration”.

Immigration influencer Abul Rizvi tried to spin a similar line:

Abul Rizvi Tweet

Rizvi’s argument is ridiculous because the pandemic completely constipated the supply side of the housing market by sending material costs through the roof, sending builders bust, and reducing building capacity via months of lockdowns.

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Deliberately engineering a record immigration rebound into a supply-restricted market was the height of idiocy and is why we are suffering from the worst rental crisis in living memory.

Politicians will never speak honestly about the housing crisis or immigration. But commentators like Abul Rizvi should.

Instead, Rizvi has chosen to gaslight to protect his Labor mates.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.