The federal government’s ‘Big Australia’ immigration policy has increased Australia’s population by 7.6 million this century, with the majority of them settling in our main cities.
Australia’s population is officially projected to grow by about 40 million people (circa 50%) over the next 40 years, owing to a permanently high net overseas migration rate of 235,000 people per year.
The unavoidable result of this expansion has been a rapid move away from detached housing and towards apartment living, particularly in Australia’s largest and most densely populated cities.
As shown in the next chart, the overwhelming majority of homes built in Sydney over the past 20 years were units & apartments:
Modelling presented by the Urban Taskforce following the 2016 Census predicted that Sydney’s housing composition would shift considerably towards apartments over the 41 years to 2057.
According to this modelling, 55% of Sydney residents lived in a detached dwelling in 2016. However, this is expected to reduce to just 25% by 2057, while the proportion of Sydney residents living in apartments (mostly high-rise) is expected to increase from 25% to 50% over the same time period.
New data presented by PropTrack suggests that Australians increasingly would prefer to live in a detached house than an apartment.
Source: PropTrack
At the end of 2023, the median selling price premium for houses compared to units was at a record-high in Sydney and Melbourne, just shy of record-highs in Adelaide and Perth, and well above the long-term average everywhere else:
Source: PropTrack
As shown above, the price premium is most extreme in Sydney where houses have become the most scarce.
PropTrack’s data follows a survey by Westpac undertaken over the pandemic showing that 77% of Australians would prefer to live in a detached house with a backyard than a townhouse or apartment, if given the choice.
The federal government’s mass immigration policy will ensure that only the wealthy will be able to afford to live in a detached house in the future.
It also represents the end of the Australian backyard.
Is this what we want for our children’s and grandchildren’s future?
