China’s property black hole will suck in iron ore

Friday, 5 January 2024

Kicking us off is Goldman with the latest Chinese home sales:

The divergence of property sales between primary and secondary markets remained significant amid the ongoing housing easing.

Based on our estimates, primary market(new) home sales volume was 16% below year-ago level during the final week of 2023 (Exhibit 4), while secondary market (existing) home sales volume was 50% above year-ago level (Exhibit 5).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.