The property rebound is “over”

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CoreLogic’s preliminary auction clearance rate registered a notable decline over the weekend following the second busiest weekend of auctions this year.

A preliminary clearance rate of 70.1% was recorded across the combined capital cities, down 1.6% from the prior weekend, which was revised down to 65.8% at final figures.

Sydney recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 72.5%, down 0.9% from the prior weekend, whereas Melbourne’s fell 1.9% to 69.6%:

Preliminary auction results
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Following the weekend’s auctions, prominent Sydney auctioneer, Tom Panos, declared that “the boom is over… impacted by the listings that are growing daily on the market”:

Tom Panos Tweet

According to Panos, via his weekly YouTube update:

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“I told you so many months ago that this market was going to soften and I can tell you it is happening as we see the extra listings on the market are meaning buyers have more choice and greedy vendors are not getting those premium figures as they were previously”.

“Don’t get me wrong. Yes you will still see the occasional property that sells $300,000 or $400,000 over reserve, but all the buyers go to quality and everything else is getting smashed. That’s what we’re seeing”.

“Watch the stock build up. Don’t get me wrong, we’re not talking about a major collapse. But those boom prices have gone”.

CoreLogic data to 3 September showed that “new listings trended 16.5% higher through winter relative to the end of Autumn, which is unusual for this time of year”.

“New listings are now slightly higher than the historic five-year average”:

New property listings

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that price growth has slowed amid the growth in listings:

Dwelling value growth
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That said, with Australia’s population growing at an unprecedented pace amid record net overseas migration, and the rental market facing its tightest conditions in living memory, there are good reasons to believe that price growth will remain robust.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.