Aussie house prices slow amid auction deluge

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CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index rose another 0.19% in the week ended 14 September – the 28th consecutive weekly increase:

CoreLogic weekly movement

The weekly rise was broad-based with all major capital cities registering increases; although Brisbane (0.35%) was easily the leader:

Weekly movements
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Since bottoming on 7 February 2023, home values have risen by 6.8% at the 5-city aggregate level, with Sydney (9.4%) and Brisbane (6.7%) recording the strongest growth:

House price rebound

However, quarterly growth has moderated, down to 3.0% at the 5-city aggregate level:

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Quarterly price growth

Brisbane is leading quarterly growth at 4.2%, followed by Sydney and Adelaide at 3.5%:

Quarterly price changes
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Clearly, the flood of for sale listings is beginning to weigh on home prices.

CoreLogic’s latest chart pack showed that “new listings trended 16.5% higher through winter relative to the end of Autumn, which is unusual for this time of year”.

“New listings are now slightly higher than the historic five-year average”:

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CoreLogic new listings

Auction volumes have also surged with volumes up 19% year-on-year last week. This delivered a final clearance rate of just 65.8% at the combined capital city level:

Final auction results

The recent decline in auction clearances is also pointing to softer capital city price growth:

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Auction clearances versus prices

With 2,436 homes scheduled to go under the hammer this weekend, the combined capitals are expected to hold the biggest auction week since early April and the second busiest weekend of the year.

Volumes this weekend will be 7.1% higher than last weekend (2,275) and 10.6% higher than the 2,203 auctions held last year.

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This weekend’s auction data will provide a timely test of the market as the spring selling season continues to ramp up.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.