Goldman with the note.
Exports from three Asian economies for which trade data are released early (mainland China, Korea and Taiwan) fell 2.8% mom sa, at a similar pace to the previous month. The outcome was broadly in line with consensus expectations, with downside surprises in mainland China and Korea offset by a large upside surprise in Taiwan. Exports to Europe declined further at an accelerating pace. US-bound exports fell relatively modestly at a decelerating pace, with a sharp rise in Taiwan exports to the US partly offsetting sustained declines in US-bound exports from mainland China. Exports to Japan and China remained subdued. A modest rebound in tech exports was more than offset by weakness in non-tech exports. The three Asian economies’ imports dropped 4.3%, raising the combined trade surplus to US$90.7bn (nsa) from US$77.7bn in the previous month.
DM inventories are still high, and we have not yet had a material shock. Should get worse yet.
