Supply chain stress reverse bullwhipped

Tuesday, 28 February 2023

UBS with the note.

Supply chain bottleneck stress close to lowest level in 10 years

Our composite global supply chain stress indicator has fallen to -0.66 st dev below normal (median). With the exception of 1 month in 2019, that’s the lowest level of supply chain disruption since 2013. In addition, the average z-scores of all the components of our tracker are now also back to zero, having consistently been more elevated due to severely elevated shipping cost data, in particular.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.