We have cut our subjective probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 25%, less than half the 65% consensus estimate in the latest Wall Street Journal survey. Continued strength in the labor market and early signs of improvement in the business surveys suggest that the risk of a near-term slump has diminished notably. And while Q1 GDP still looks soft—our latest tracking estimate is +0.4%—we expect growth to pick up in the spring as real disposable income continues to increase, the drag from tighter financial conditions abates, and faster growth in China and Europe supports the US manufacturing sector.
There are green shoots globally. BofA:
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
