Aussie dwelling approvals dead cat bounce

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New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that dwelling approvals rebounded 28.1% in August to be down 9.5% year-on-year.

The rebound was driven by unit approvals, which soared 99.1%, whereas house approvals rose 4.1%.

Over the year, houses approvals fell 14.4% whereas unit approvals fell 1.2%.

Commenting on the result, ABS head of construction statistics, Daniel Rossi, noted “the strong upward movement in August follows a weak July result, which had the lowest number of other residential dwellings approved since January 2012.”

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The next chart, which presents the data in seasonally adjusted terms, plots the changes:

Australian dwelling approvals

The trend changes are plotted below:

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Trend dwelling approvals

Annual dwelling approvals continue to fall sharply from peak, driven by house approvals:

Annual dwelling approvals

Finally, trend approvals have plunged from peak across the major jurisdictions:

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Dwelling approvals by state

The big slowdown should arrive next year after the large number of HomeBuilder stimulus homes currently under construction are finished.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.