ScoMo’s quarantine dodge is costing nation billions

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The condemnation of Victoria’s Holiday Inn quarantine breach, which seeded COVID-19 into the community and has thrown the state into another damaging lockdown, flew thick and fast over the weekend.

After it was revealed that Victoria’s hotel quarantine program was left out of the state’s key taskforce on infection control for frontline workers, a “gobsmacked” and “bewildered” Julian Rait – president of the Australian Medical Association (AMA) – declared that Victoria “cannot be trusted” to manage hotel quarantine until the system is fully restructured:

“It’s inexcusable,” Dr Rait said.

“Until hotel quarantine is fully restructured, Victoria cannot be trusted to run hotel quarantine”…

Australia’s chief medical officer, Professor Paul Kelly, also took a dig at the Victorian Government for allowing a quarantine guest to use a “high risk” nebuliser in their hotel room, thus allegedly facilitating airborne transmission of the virus:

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“So a nebuliser is a high risk and we don’t use them in hospitals and how that worked out that it was being used in the hotel room, I’ll leave that to the Victorian authorities to talk to”…

This came after the 38-year-old quarantine guest at the centre of the controversy told The Age that he’d twice been granted permission to use the nebuliser to treat his chronic asthma while in quarantine.

Despite clear empirical evidence that the Victorian Government cannot be trusted to manage hotel quarantine, federal Health Minister Greg Hunt rejected Premier Daniel Andrews’ request to slash international arrival numbers:

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Mr Hunt pushed back at a suggestion from Mr Andrews that Australia should consider cutting its weekly intake from thousands to hundreds…

“We have to be able to get our people home and get critical medicines in so we have faith Victoria can continue to maintain and operate their system”…

Prime Minister Scott Morrison also outright rejected taking over responsibility for quarantine, stating “we’re not going to be running it”.

Thus, Australia’s quarantine system has been left in the following diabolical state:

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  • Since the initial outbreak and national lockdown in May Australia has experienced six ‘outbreaks’, all imported via failed hotel quarantine: Melbourne (2020), Adelaide (2020), Sydney (NYE 2020/21), Brisbane (2021), Perth (2021) and currently Melbourne.
  • Five of these outbreaks have resulted in city/state-wide lockdowns, costing the economy tens-of-billions of dollars in lost activity and throwing the travel plans of thousands into turmoil.
  • With newer highly infectious strains emerging, airborne transmission is now the key risk, yet we continue to accommodate returned travellers in densely packed city hotels with shared ventilation.
  • The federal government continues to abrogate responsibility for quarantine to the states, despite it having constitutional responsibility for the matter, controlling international arrival numbers, owning most of the suitable onshore and offshore quarantine sites (e.g. Christmas Island and army bases), and having the deepest pockets to fund quarantine.

As long as Australia’s quarantine system remains the same and continues to be run out of unsuitable city hotels, then further virus leakages into the community is inevitable, as are continual lockdowns.

The federal government, therefore, must take over responsibility for quarantine and set up dedicated sites modelled on Northern Territory’s Howard Springs, which the federal government funded:

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Facilities like Howard Springs offer clear benefits versus quarantine hotels, including:

  1. They are located away from major population centres;
  2. They provide abundant fresh air and space between guests and staff; and
  3. They provide greater comfort than being stuffed into a hotel room for two weeks.
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Moreover, if these facilities are staffed by fly-in-fly out personnel that stay on site for the duration of their deployment (similar to remote mining workers), then there is no risk of transmitting virus into the community should a breach from guest to staff occur.

Having a robust quarantine system is Australia’s number one defence against the virus and vital to ensuring the economy remains open without disruptions.

A few billion dollars spent on several quarantine facilities like Howard Springs would be money well spent and would pale into insignificance against the tens-of-billions of dollars that would be lost through regular hotel quarantine breaches and shutdowns.

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It’s time for Scott Morrison to step up, lead the nation, and take control of quarantine.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.