Via UBS:
Checking in with Platts Steel Raw Material Analysts
We hosted Paul Bartholomew (Senior Managing Editor, Steel Markets) and Jeffery Lu (Managing Editor, Met Coal) to discuss their respective markets and COVID-19. While the LT implications of the outbreak remain uncertain, the immediate impact on productivity is becoming apparent. Platts is concerned that the 1) decision to extend the CNY holiday, 2) transport restrictions, & 3) mandatory 14-day quarantine for returning workers, will be an obvious impediment to crude steel output (& raw material demand) in February; however similar to our China economists it expects the pent-up demand to lead to a recovery from Q2. A dichotomy is emerging separating commodities reliant on domestic supply (coal, manganese) vs. import-dominant raw materials & markets where speculative short-positioning is possible (iron ore, copper, nickel).
