Retail recession to worsen as consumers close wallets

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The latest quarterly retail sales data from the ABS revealed that annual retail sales volumes growth plunged to 0.2% – the lowest recorded level since the early-1990s recession:

NAB’s online retail sales index has also plunged to recessionary levels:

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Today, the Roy Morgan-ANZ consumer confidence survey shows the number of consumers who think now is a good time to buy a major household item has hit a 10-year low:

“The weakness in the time-to-buy-a-household-item index is particularly disappointing, given that tax cuts should be supporting this measure,” [ANZ economist Felicity Emmett said]…

“So far, though, consumers seem impervious to both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the combination of weak wage growth and high levels of debt may prove to be the more dominant driver of confidence and spending,” Ms Emmett said.

Remember, too, that new car sales have also plunged 10.1% year-on-year, with annual sales hitting the lowest level since October 2012:

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Underlying this consumer weakness is the seven-year slump in real household disposable incomes:

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And yet, the consumer recession would be even worse if not for the fact that households have drawn down on their savings:

Bottom line: the Aussie consumer is sick and experiencing recessionary conditions.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.