Tighter balances in 2017 but surpluses return in 2018 & 2019
We expect Brent to average $57, $56, and $61 in 2017, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The new, short cycle nature of oil supply will quickly move the market between surpluses and deficits. The cycles are not symmetric, however; surpluses will persist longer than deficits and reduce average prices in the process.
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
