Do-nothing Malcolm wasting everyone’s time on TPP

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By Leith van Onselen

With the Coalition’s policy agenda threadbare and it sinking in the opinion polls, the Turnbull Government has resorted to what it knows best: diversions and gimmicks.

Last week we witnessed Treasurer Scott Morrison deploy a new smokescreen to deflect attention away from its housing policy failures, and this week it has launched a faux campaign on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, despite US President-Elect Donald Trump categorically ruling-out ratifying the agreement, thus killing the pact.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Turnbull attacked Labor Leader Bill Shorten for refusing to ratify the TPP on the grounds that it is a complete waste of time without US involvement. From The ABC:

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has accused Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of shallow populism and defended his pursuit of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Earlier in the day, Mr Shorten pronounced the TPP “dead in the water” and said the Coalition’s campaign for the deal was “a waste of time”…

On his first day back at work, Mr Shorten called on the Government to focus on issues closer to home rather than pursuing the TPP.

“Donald Trump has made it clear that he is not going to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership, so why on Earth is Malcolm Turnbull taking us down a frolic with a treaty the Americans are never going to sign?” he said…

Mr Turnbull said former Labor prime ministers Bob Hawke and Paul Keating would be ashamed of Mr Shorten’s protectionist position on the TPP.

“The TPP is a very important element in continuing to build those open markets of trade in our regions,” he said…

Mr Turnbull raised the prospect of Mr Trump softening his stance on the TPP once inaugurated as US president…

“It can be massaged, changed, worked on during the next administration. So, I hope America will stay in the trade business,” he said…

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Turnbull’s position on the TPP is nonsensical.

First, one of the key tenets of Donald Trump’s Presidential bid was that he would axe the TPP. Moreover, as recent as the weekend just passed, Trump’s administration confirmed that the TPP is “emphatically dead”. There can be no agreement without the US’ involvement, so why on earth should Australia ratify the deal now?

Second, Turnbull’s argument that the TPP “can be massaged, changed, worked on during the next administration” is irrelevant. Any changes to the already signed TPP would require re-negotiation, agreement and re-ratification from the other 11 member countries. So where is the logic in Australia ratifying the deal now?

Finally, member nations were given two years to ratify the TPP after signing. We are only 10 months into this process and have 14 months to go. So again, why the rush to ratify the TPP now?

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Stop wasting everyone’s time Prime Minister and please turn the Government’s attention to issues that are both achievable and matter to Australians.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.