From Macquarie:
After a weak mid-October to mid-November, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have picked up over the past couple of weeks, according to preliminary port data. The run rate of shipments is currently close to YTD highs seen in late-August, with Australian exports 8% higher than the YTD average and Brazilian volumes 6% higher. On a YoY basis the past two weeks have seen growth of around 10%, flattered by the roll-off of Samarco volumes from last year, which has improved comps. We reiterate our view that iron ore prices should fall into year-end as supply increases and demand falls sequentially.
The premium hard coking coal spot price, as assessed by Platts, is below $300/t FOB Australia for the first time since 7 November. With negotiations for the 1Q17 contract about to get into full swing, this will be a key reference point for the settlement. The 4Q16 contract was settled at a $15/t discount to spot. We are of the view, outlined in a recent note, that the coking coal spot price has downside into year-end due to increased Chinese production and rising inventories, although we do not expect the adjustment to be as fast as the one recently witnessed in thermal coal.
