Rising US oil production is a sign of things to come The recent increase in reported United States crude oil production of 190 kb/ d refocuses our attention on the eventual pace of production growth being embedded by this year’s rise in drilling activity. If the oil-directed rig count were to continue rising through the middle, or alternatively the end of 2017, we would expect US crude oil production growth could return to growth ranging from 800 kb/d to 1.3 mmb/d yoy in 2018 on a conservative rig productivity assumption. This is based on year-end 2017 oil-directed rig count of between 613 and 705, assuming 70 oil-directed rigs outside of the seven major unconventional basins. In order to see a disappointment from this production forecast, we would either need to see rig counts leveling out relatively soon, or rig productivity begin to fall, neither of which appears likely at the moment. In our view, a WTI price of USD 52/bbl could very well be supportive of such an extended build in rig counts by making further acreage economic. A further extrapolation of this trend, sustaining a constant rig count at the end-17 level (in either of the above scenarios), would suggest roughly the same rate of production growth again in 2019.
Any push above $50 will be greeted with a flood of US supply. OPEC is snookered and even if it cuts it will be back for more soon afterwards.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
