De-globalisation revolution hurtles towards Italy, Austria

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For anyone with a sense of history, the de-globalisation revolution is moving at astonishing speed. The next global wanker rejection is scheduled for December 4 in Italy and Austria, from the Express:

THE EU’s days might be numbered with Italy about to vote on a referendum which could send shockwaves across the continent.Analysts believe the outcome of the ballot on constitutional reform could have massive global implications.

With many European leaders already coming under severe pressure from anti-EU parties ahead of elections next year the significance of the Italian result is huge.

Defeat for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi could lead to even deeper social turmoil in countries already struggling with austerity, immigration problems and a growing contempt for Brussels.

Maria Paola Toschi, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management told CNBC: “The upcoming Italian referendum this December may create volatility across markets as the year draws to a close.”

Ms Toschi said the referendum is widely considered as political test for Italy and its leader Matteo Renzi.

She said: “A victory for Yes could reinforce the empowerment of the current coalition on an ambitious program of reforms.

“A victory of No could open a period of uncertainty on the political stability of the current coalition that has been always strongly committed on reforms.”

Polling is firmly with the “no” vote:

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And momentum is all for rejection:

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The “no” vote led by the anti-euro Five Star Movement is surely going to get a big boost from the Trump victory. The spread between Italian and German bonds keeps widening despite QE:

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Same day is the third run-off for the Austrian presidency with the Nazi-rooted FPO’s Norbert Hofer now favourite:

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Also from the Express:

The FPO strongly opposes the “Islamisation of Europe”, and have proposed a full ban on the burka.

Mr Hofer has promised he would call a referendum on EU membership if Turkey becomes a member of the bloc.

He has said “I am fully certain that Austrian people will not accept Turkish membership in the bloc, as well as the situation where Austria is deprived of its powers in favour of the authorities in Brussels.”

Mr Hofer has promised an EU referendum if Turkey join the bloc.

The party has also called for stricter border controls and a clamp down on immigration, in line with its slogan “Austria first”.

Earlier this summer, the FPO made headlines when it released a video warning migrants to “keep your fingers off our women”.

The clip, which was subtitled in Arabic, featured politician Armin Sippel explaining “what is and what is not allowed” when it comes to everday interaction with females.

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Austrian spreads are still contained:

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Neither event is going to trigger crisis but it ought to pressure European bond spreads a lot more. What’s more, it will confirm the European exit gauntlet for next year as fabulously treacherous:

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There is no way that the ECB can pull back QE, unless it wants to unleash exit crises across the Continent. More upwards pressure for the USD.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.