Markets stumble as risk gauntlet tightens

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The rampant US dollar finally eased up overnight:

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But that couldn’t save other majors with CNY really getting thumped now:

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Commodity currencies were strong:

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Gold was strong:

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As Brent rolled over:

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Base metals joined the steel inputs hysteria:

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Big miners went nuts across the board:

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US and EM high yield fell with oil:

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US bonds were nonetheless dumped:

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Along with equities:

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The Q4 risk gauntlet tightened a little as Hillary’s lead was pared back to five points:

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Nothing new on Brexit or Italy. Deutsche is not going get a quick settlement form the US. But the ECB continues to reassure on moar QE, from the FT:

Mario Draghi hit back on behalf of monetary policymakers around the world, dismissing growing criticism that their aggressive actions to support the economy had widened the gap between rich and poor.

In a speech at a think-tank event in Berlin, the president of the European Central Bank defended its policy of cutting rates to record low levels and buying bonds in mass quantities in an attempt to lift the eurozone economic recovery. The drastic actions had not widened the gap between rich and poor, he said.

“We have every reason to believe that, with the impetus provided by our recent measures, monetary policy is working as expected: by boosting consumption and investment and creating jobs, which is always socially progressive,” the ECB president said.

Mr Draghi also declared victory in his bank’s fight against deflation, saying the ECB had “succeeded” in removing the threat of a vicious spiral of falling prices and ever weaker demand. While inflation has risen over recent months, at 0.4 per cent it remains well below the bank’s target of just under 2 per cent.

The fight by the ECB and its counterparts around the world against deflation has provoked growing controversy in political circles.

Markets also continue to price a December rate hike at the Fed, hitting 70% odds last night:

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It was roughly a draw between the inflation and deflation trades on the night.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.