From Macquarie:
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a 67% chance of having more than the average 11 tropical cyclones over the 2016/17 season from November to April due to the prevailing weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In terms of the geographic split, Western Australia is expected to have at least two tropical cyclones to make landfall. Last season was the least active on record, with only one cyclone that hit the WA coast at the end of January. Meanwhile the coast of Queensland is forecast to see up to eight cyclones form, with only one or two likely to make landfall. This could have negative implications for iron ore supply from WA and met coal supply from Queensland. The first quarter of each year is typically weakest for seaborne supply for both commodities due to wetter weather, and with conditions expected to be more adverse than usual, these markets could stay tighter for longer.
And John Kemp:
