Melbournian revolt against population ponzi grows

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By Leith van Onselen

Last week, the ABS released its latest population data, which registered near record population growth for Victoria, with nearly 115,000 residents added to the state in the year to March 2016:

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This result followed the Victorian Government’s latest population projections, which forecast a whopping 115,000 new residents for the state each and every year for the next 36 years, with Melbourne’s population projected to swell by 75% to 8 million:

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Following the release of the ABS’ latest population data, The Age published an article entitled State of excitement as Victoria’s population passes the six million mark, which triumphed that Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city.

The comments section of this article were scathing, with around 90% of respondents pushing back hard against the population influx being thrust upon them. Below are some examples:

DisgustedMelbourne,Sep 22 2016 at 6:47pm
This is nothing to celebrate.

Local residents are living with the consequences of an immigration program that has been too high for too long. Our roads are permanently gridlocked, the cost of housing is going through the roof, accessing essential services such as hospitals and schools has become more difficult, our suburbs are under serious threat from inappropriate over-development and we are losing our amenities and quality of life..

People are no longer comfortable and relaxed about our immigration program and our policy-makers need to start listening and ACTING.

The time has come to end this PONZI scheme before it collapses under its own weight and reduce immigration to ZERO-NET inclusive of all categories including refugees…

AndrewSep 22 2016 at 7:02pm
…and no actual new railway lines to anywhere since Glen Waverly in 1932, and also the full list of other infrastructure deficits – so remind me again, what are we excited about?…

MartinWarrnambool ,Sep 22 2016 at 7:07pm
How dreadful. Quality of life going down but who cares as long as we’re selling more widgets.. Humans will end up like all species that overpopulate…

WobertSep 22 2016 at 7:11pm
Hardly think it’s anything to be excited about, previous article I read was about record overcrowding on the suburban rail network. Until the Feds do something about the population ponzie, and cut immigration numbers to the long term average of about seventy thousand per annum, from the current two to three hundred thousand, the States haven’t got a hope of keeping up with the required infrastructure. Melbourne and Sydney will grind to a halt because of congestion…

longshotnorth melbourne,Sep 22 2016 at 7:16pm
The great population ponzi scheme continues …

MikeOcean Grove,Sep 22 2016 at 8:06pm
What a shame! When are we going to stop growing? Maybe when we have 50 storey high rise all the way to Mildura! What I hate about Pauline Hanson is that she has made the immigration debate one about race or religion and we can’t have a serious, educated debate about population growth. One day population growth has to stop, let’s stop now (in a controlled way so that people who rely on that growth are not too affected) before we forced to stop with the guaranteed dire consequences. We might have enough “space” (for the moment) but we do not have infinite resources…

AndrewReservoir,Sep 22 2016 at 8:09pm
Seven million! No thanks. Havent we ruined the country enough with massive immigration. Who is this really to benefit?..

russSep 22 2016 at 8:33pm
6 million people a good thing? You can’t be serious…

CzarSep 22 2016 at 8:58pm
If this rate of population growth continues, then our children will be the poorer for it.

The State and Federal governments think population increases are the key to future prosperity. It’s simply not true…

ABMelbourne,Sep 22 2016 at 11:48pm
The Age has the headline “State of excitement as Victoria’s population passes six million”, the following headline is “Big squeeze: Overcrowding on trains hits new high. The huge immigration program started by John Howard continues abated, enthusiastically embraced by the major parties. They are selling us out. Vote for minor parties that have a sensible population policies…

DaleWheelers Hill,Sep 23 2016 at 12:03am
Awful…just awful. 6 million people and growing fast is nothing to be proud of.

Government at all levels is fixated on a “bigger is better” model…… and quality of life is going down the toilet as a result.

Eventually, we populate ourselves to extinction…

PragmatistMelbourne,Sep 23 2016 at 8:01am
Oh this is awesome news! Just think of all those easy sales for our retail industry. Every new person needs a new telky, new fridge, new car. Who cares that we dont manufacture anymore and it takes an hour to drive or train to work when it used to take thirty minutes. Who cares about that impact on the ordinary person as long as we can record lazy economic growth…

snapdogSep 23 2016 at 8:15am
It doesn’t make me feel excited. It makes me feel depressed that the political class and their big business backers are so dependent on this continuous growth in consumers in order to maintain their grip on power, to feed their greed and to maintain the charade of the holy grail of continuous GDP growth. Ponzi scheme describes it perfectly…

Alcountry Victoria,Sep 23 2016 at 8:29am
This is exciting. Third world living conditions coming to you soon…

Lord Haw HawSep 23 2016 at 9:44am
This is good news…why?????? have you seen infrastructure, continuous urban development, falling apart schools, hospitals that can’t cope??? Train systems already inadequete…

WhatThe?Melbourne,Sep 23 2016 at 11:17am
I don’t know anyone who thinks this is a good thing.
The idea of another couple of million people in Melbourne with our current lack of proper forward planning is horrifying…

bilmcSep 23 2016 at 12:26pm
Very sad news… The problem is not really the actual number but the fact that most of the new arrivals end up in Melbourne. Melbourne is already an unmitigated disaster – most liveable city – what a joke. And we happily continue to “plan” ?? for more people. My only consolation is that I am an octogenarian, not in great health, so will not have to suffer the place for much longer…

TomSep 23 2016 at 1:00pm
Ummm who is celebrating? Crime is up. Homelessness is up. Traffic is congested. What a joke

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The fundamental factor that brought down the past two Victorian Governments – the Brumby Labor Government and the Napthine Liberal Government – were concerns about declining living standards caused by Victoria’s rampant population growth (immigration).

This kind of uncontrolled growth has seen an increasing strain on infrastructure, such as public transport and roads, as well as greater congestion, which has been deeply unpopular in the electorate. It has also led to expensive and unpopular infrastructure projects, such as the desalination plant and the East-West Link, just to keep up with the growing population. And it has helped push-up housing costs to deeply unaffordable levels.

Meanwhile, the evidence suggests that Victorian’s material living standards have not been increased from the state’s population growth fetish. The most recent state accounts revealed that Victoria was the only jurisdiction in Australia where per capita GSP had gone backwards since the GFC (see next chart).

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Victoria also had the lowest per capita gross disposable income on the mainland, only just beating out lowly Tasmania (see next chart).

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Effectively, the strong population growth has masked Victorian’s poor economic performance. That is, the economic pie has grown due to population growth, but everyone’s slice of that pie has remained unchanged.

If you want an explanation for why recent state governments have been so unpopular, look no further than the state’s false economy which has seen Melbourne growing for growth’s sake, pushing against infrastructure bottlenecks, and failing to increase the living standards of the existing population.

There is clear resentment building-up within the community against Australia’s high immigration process. Politicians ignore these trends at their peril.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.