Macro Afternoon

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by Chris Becker

Asian markets end the week on a sour note with falls across the region in terms of stocks, except locally. This is a case of oil and other commodities pushing risk down and prepositioning before the end of week movement on European and US stocks, with economic catalysts at play.

The Japanese Nikkei slipped 0.3% as the Yen put on a little rally while Chinese stocks have taken back most of their recent gains, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3023 points only after it just started to climb above terminal support at 3000 points.

As for the ASX200, it was a good finish to the week, up over 1% to 5431 points with bank stocks leading the charge, taking their cue from the German DAX overnight. The XXJ index (minus REITs) shows how it is desperately clawing its way back above previous support at 6600 points after making a plunge recently. The next resistance level at 6850 points is key for any long term holders of Australian stocks:

$xxj_ax_price_daily_and_commodity_channel_index___daily___40_periods.30mar16_to_30sep16
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Eurostoxx and S&P500 futures are dead flat going into the London session.

Turning to commodities, gold is flat as well, with the four hourly chart of silver again showing the potential looking forward. Having made a double top at key resistance at $20 per ounce, I’m watching the low moving average around $19.60 or so to break and bring gold down with it:

XAGUSDH4
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WTI remains elevated, just below the $46USD per barrel level with a potential short swing setup here below $45.30 or so, which would also indicate a reversal in general risk:

WTI.fsH4

In currencies, I’m watching Pound Sterling to rollover here:

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GBPUSDH4

While the Aussie dollar keeps lifting higher, with a positive Asian session possibly translating into further gains if support at 76.30 holds:

AUDUSDH4

The data calendar ends the week with preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs for Europe and the US and an oil rig count for the latter as well.

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Have a good weekend and see you all next week!