CoreLogic: home values up 1% in September. Doubts remain

Advertisement

By Leith van Onselen

CoreLogic’s dwelling price results are in for September, with a 0.98% rise in values recorded over the month at the 5-city level (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_15190 Sep. 30 09.39

It was the ninth substantive monthly rise in home values in a row (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_15192 Sep. 30 09.40
Advertisement

Over the quarter, price growth was a hefty 2.86% at the 5-city level, up from the 2.45% recorded in August (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_15193 Sep. 30 09.41

Over the quarter, values rose by 3.54% in Sydney and by 4.97% in Melbourne, and by 2.56% in Adelaide, but fell by 0.04% in Brisbane and by 3.16% in Perth.

Advertisement

The next chart, which tracks trend annual price growth, shows the second big rebound in annual growth has started to retrace yet again (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_15191 Sep. 30 09.39

Sydney remains the strongest housing market in Australia when measured in annual growth terms, edging out Melbourne (see next chart).

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_15194 Sep. 30 09.41

And values are now 31.3% above the October 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven almost entirely by massive growth in Sydney (+56.7%) and to a lesser extent Melbourne (+32.0%), with the other major capitals not doing a lot (down in real inflation-adjusted terms):

ScreenHunter_15195 Sep. 30 09.42
Advertisement

CoreLogic’s results continue to decouple from the ABS housing finance data, which shows a weakening trend (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_15196 Sep. 30 09.45

They are also at odds with the weakening trends reported by the other data providers:

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_15197 Sep. 30 09.47

Especially with regards to Sydney:

ScreenHunter_15198 Sep. 30 09.55

Thus, question marks remain over this index.

Advertisement

[email protected]

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.