From Macquarie:
According to the latest CISA 10-day statistics, in the first 10 days of September its member mills’ daily crude steel production climbed by 4.65% from late August to 1.76mtpd, which is the highest production rate since June this year. Steel inventory among those major mills increased by 11% since the end of August to 13.75mt and is 2.9% higher than the same time last month. Traders’ steel inventory has risen for 9 weeks since mid-July based on Mysteel data, and the current inventory level is only 4% lower than the same period last year versus 30% in the middle of July. The growth in mill production rates and steel inventory suggests an oversupply risk in China’s domestic steel market even with a seasonal pickup in steel demand.
Oh dear. Here’s Goldman from earlier this year:
