Three remaining large sources of oil supply disruptions in recent months have all shown signs of increasing output since last Wednesday. In Iraq, flows from the Baghdad controlled northern fields resumed on Kurdistan’s pipeline to Ceyhan. In Libya, a vessel started to load crude from the Zueitina port, one of the three ports slated to reopen following an agreement between the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Tripoli and the Petroleum Facilities Guard, one of Libya’s armed brigades. Finally on Sunday, the Niger Delta Avengers announced that they had agreed to a ceasefire.
Uncertainty on the sustainability and magnitude of these improvements remains large: the new Iraqi energy minister decided to resume flows on the pipeline and the political instability in the country or attacks on the KRG pipeline are significant risks to the recent recovery. In Libya, the vessel is only intended to draw from Zueitina’s oil inventories, with the port still closed and stated opposition by local tribes to a ramp up of the ports supply fields. In Nigeria, an NDA statement specified that it could resume “warfare” at any point and another militant group called Niger Delta Green Justice Mandate claimed an attack on Saturday with the government yet to comment on the ceasefire.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
