Cognitive dissonance reigns over housing market

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The latest quarterly housing market sentiment survey by CoreLogic and TEG rewards revealed that almost two thirds of Australian’s think now is a good time to be purchasing residential property while roughly the same proportion believed the housing market is vulnerable to a significant correction.

According to CoreLogic research head Tim Lawless, the latest CoreLogic and TEG Rewards Housing Market Sentiment Survey highlights the paradox in housing market attitudes, with the large majority of survey respondents indicating that it’s a good time to buy a home at a time when the market may be vulnerable to a significant downturn.

Of the 2,432 Australian residents who participated in the June quarter CoreLogic TEG Rewards Housing Market Sentiment Survey, 64% of respondents thought it was a good time to buy a dwelling, up from 60% of respondents a year ago…

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55% of survey respondents thought that the current housing market conditions represented a good time to sell a property, down from 65% at the same time last year…

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65% of survey respondents believe the Australian housing market is vulnerable to a significant correction in values. While the reading suggests survey respondents are concerned there could be a substantial fall in Australian home values, the result is lower from a year ago when 75% of respondents thought the market was vulnerable to a significant correction in values. The result is unchanged from the March quarter at 65%…

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Most survey respondents are expecting dwelling values will remain steady over the second half of 2016 and one third are expecting dwelling values to rise…

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The majority of survey respondents expect dwelling values to remain steady over the next twelve months, with Tasmanians the most optimistic about the direction of value growth over the next twelve months…

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94% of survey respondents believe that foreign buying activity is placing some degree of upwards pressure on Australian home values, while 17% of those surveyed believe foreign buying is placing ‘extreme’ upwards pressure on home values…

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Sydney and Melbourne, where the Foreign Investment Review Board reports that approvals for overseas buyers to purchase Australian dwellings has been the highest, showed the highest proportion of respondents that thought foreign buying activity was placing ‘extreme upwards pressure’ on home values. These are also the two capital cities where capital growth has been the most substantial and housing affordability has been stretched the most. One quarter of Sydney respondents thought foreign buyers were placing extreme upwards pressure on dwelling values, and 22% of Melbourne respondents thought this was the case.

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Building on the theme of foreign buying activity in the housing market, even though more than half of survey respondents thought that overseas buyers were placing only modest, slight or non-existent upwards pressure on dwelling values, 71% of respondents still thought foreign buyers were making it more difficult for Australian residents to own their own home…

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Full report here.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.