Macro Morning (confidence rally)

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trading week globe world
by Chris Becker

Markets are all about confidence, not fundamentals, as the confidence fairy sprinkles dust over traders and they are starting to believe once again that the Fed won’t hurt their bonuses, err, efforts to get their investors a good return. US stocks rallied once more as the USD firmed with rising bets of raising rates now signalling that such a course won’t be bad for shares as expected. For now. In commodities, oil stayed high on supply disruptions while gold maintained a new monthly low with other industrial metals staying steady. Tonight’s US durable goods orders for April will be a valuable catalyst for stocks to pivot on if it remains firm going into the northern hemisphere summer.

Recapping Asia first where the Shanghai Composite continues to slide, down 0.2% to remain just above support at 2800 points. I’m still watching the previous intraweek low for a breakdown here with my target the former low at 2600 points as there seems to be no confidence on the upside:

ssec_ix_price_daily_and_commodity_channel_index___daily___40_periods.20nov15_to_01jun16

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