From Macquarie:
The iron ore price decline continues, with The Steel Index 62%Fe CFR China reference dropping 4.7% on Tuesday to $50.2/t, the lowest level since February. The iron ore price has now dropped ~10% in two days. As a result, even with its own 10% fall over the last fortnight, scrap prices are now trading at ~3.6x iron ore on an iron units equivalent basis – equivalent to the peak ratio seen in early May. Part of the reason for this may be a rebound in marginal iron ore supply. The China trade data released over the weekend showed imports from ex-Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa jumped to 142mtpa, compared to roughly 100mtpa in recent months. As we suggested in this note, much of the rebound has come from countries like Iran, Ukraine, Malaysia and Sierra Leone.
We already know that some 50mtpa has revived in China:
