Daily iron ore price update (dead cat)

David Llewellyn-Smith

Monday, 30 May 2016

Iron ore prices for May 27, 2016:

Tianjin spot was up 2% to $50.90. Paper added to gains Friday night. Rebar average is still falling. Chinese port inventories rose 200k tonnes on the week tot 100.65mt. At this point we’ve reached our $50 point of control so I do not expect any immediate further downside given it is somewhere around here that revived iron ore production begins to come under pressure again. For the next big leg down in the price deck we need to one of several things first:

Chinese demand to weaken and/or port stocks to keep rising;
Roy Hill and/or S11D ramp up;
Samarco return;
more supply from non-traditionals.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.