Weekend Links 27-28 February, 2016

The Wasteland II, Jeffrey Smart, 1945, Art Gallery of NSW

China

• As China’s Economic Picture Turns Uglier, Beijing Applies Airbrush – NY Times
• The Chinese chronicle of a crash foretold – FT.com
• Chinese central bank chief hints at more stimulus for slowing economy – SCMP
• Banks, Regulators Confront Slippery Bills Trade – Caixin
• China Gives Glimpse of Its Solutions to Economic Problems – NY Times
• ‘Xiconomics’ for Challenging Times – Economonitor
• China should follow Elvis’s advice for more action, less conversation – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• China Tries to Tackle Its Commodities Crisis – Bloomberg
• Cheapest-Ever Chinese Banks Aren’t Cheap Enough – Bloomberg
• Bad Loans No Barrier in China – Bloomberg
• Factories in China relocating inland seeking cheaper labor, boosting consumption – Nikkei Asian Review
• China faces pressure to reassure on economy at G20 meeting – CBS
• To Curb Graft in Guangzhou, It Takes a Village – Caixin
• Price Controls Irritating Rice Storage Crunch – Caixin
• China is ill prepared for a consequence of ageing: lots of people with dementia – Economist
• Home price divergence continues in mainland Chinese cities – SCMP
• Chinese leaders likely to dispense market medicine – Nikkei Asian Review
• China Economy And Currency Sound, Says China’s Central Bank Governor Ahead Of G20 Meeting, But Hints At Further Stimulus Measures – IB Times
• China May Have Found A “Solution” To Its Massive Bad Debt Problem – Zero Hedge
• China rules out weakening yuan to boost trade – AP
• China Tweaks Monetary Stance as Zhou Flags Scope to Act – Bloomberg
• China’s Credit Conundrum – Bloomberg
• Michael Pettis: Here Is Why Kyle Bass Is Mistaken On China – ValueWalk
• China rewrites the global rules – Le Monde
• China’s Default Risk Is Too Tame – Bloomberg

Asia

• Bond Markets Threaten to `Unfriend’ India – Bloomberg
• Abe remarks ignite speculation about election – Nikkei Asian Review
• Japan’s CPI Doesn’t Budge in January With BOJ Far From 2% Price – Bloomberg
• ASEAN bloc’s exports drop for first time in 6 years – Nikkei Asian Review
• Excess stocks causing investor anxiety – Nikkei Asian Review
• Can India Handle Bad Times Better Than China? – Bloomberg
• China could learn from India about foreign investors – Nikkei Asian Review
• Bond Markets Threaten to `Unfriend’ India – Bloomberg
• Sri Lanka’s embrace of China investment heightens regional geopolitical risk – Nikkei Asian Review

Europe

• EBA: Bank crisis? What bank crisis? – Telegraph
• European Banks’ $200 Billion Oil Slick – Bloomberg
• How Russia’s oil giant could beat sanctions – CNBC
• Downturn? Lack of leadership leaves Spain in limbo – CNBC
• Italy: Rome fiddles as banks burn – Euromoney
• Which fiscal union for the euro area? – Bruegel
• Germany Opposes Any G-20 Fiscal Stimulus; Focuses on Reform – Bloomberg
• EU Stagnation Continues: Deja Vu All Over Again – Social Europe
• Confusion is no response to economic orthodoxy. The German wage moderation discussion – Flassbeck Economics
• Labor Unrest Stirs in Russia as an Economic Chill Sets In – NY Times
• The IMF and the new Greek restructuring program – Brookings
• US government reportedly warns banks off Russian Eurobond – BNE Intellinews

 United Kingdom

• UK GDP spurred on by services sector, but the growth is built on cheap labour – Guardian
• Brexit may mean long-term gain – but plenty of short-term pain – Guardian
• Britain heading for power cuts next winter, say 60 local authorities – Guardian
• The Brexit of UK Banking – Project-Syndicate
• Soaring house prices and EU referendum threaten UK recovery, IMF warns – Telegraph
• Consumer spending lifts UK growth as business investment slumps – Telegraph
• Britain’s Unsolvable Problem With Europe – Bloomberg
• Cost of most popular mortgage deals to fall below 1pc – Telegraph

United States

• Mansion sales and discount dining: oil rout hits Houston’s rich – Reuters
• The Sanders Case for More Spending and Faster Growth – Bloomberg
• Binding the Fed Won’t Help the Economy – Bloomberg
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound; Capital Goods Surge – Haver Analytics
• The US has finally banned imported goods made by slaves and children – Quartz
• Bernie Sanders and the Case for a New Economic Stimulus Package – New Yorker
• US Macro Risk Rising Via February PMI Data – Capital Spectator
• Jobless Claims Continue To Signal US Economic Growth – Capital Spectator
• Making sense of the housing muddle, part 1 – Bonddad
• Are America’s Best Years Of Innovation Over? – ValueWalk
• Why Tech Degrees Are Not Putting More Blacks and Hispanics Into Tech Jobs – NY Times
• 45% of Americans pay no federal income tax – Market Watch
• America’s coffee cup is half full – Market Watch
• America’s Un-American Resistance to the Estate Tax – The Atlantic
• Budget Woes in One of America’s Wealthiest Cities – The Atlantic
• Why Blacks and Hispanics Have Such Expensive Mortgages – The Atlantic
• No One Can Agree How Much The Presidential Candidates’ Tax Plans Will Cost – FiveThirtyEight
• Who’s Right on US Financial Reform? – Project-Syndicate
• A presidential run by Michael Bloomberg could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis – LA Times
• Why America is more competitive than you think – Washington Post
• Why America pays so much more for drugs – Washington Post
• Why abortion clinics in the U.S. are rapidly closing – Washington Post
• The Dynamics of US Mortgage Debt in Default – DFA, Martin North
• In an Improving Economy, Places in Distress – NY Times
• Mortgage rates sink to lowest levels in more than a year – Washington Post
• Giving up its U.S. citizenship could save Pfizer $35 billion in taxes – Washington Post

Americas

• Treasury Plan for Puerto Rico Favors Pensions Over Bondholders – NY Times
• CIBC warns loan losses could double if economy slips into ‘recessionary environment’ – Financial Post
• Canada should boost foreign ownership of airlines, eliminate grain revenue cap, review says – Financial Post
• One of Canada’s largest banks thinks the Canadian dollar has room to rise – Market Watch
• How Can Brazil Restore Its Growth Trajectory? – Economonitor
• Why the ‘Ultra Rich Asian Girls of Vancouver’ are a case study in how not to flaunt wealth – SCMP
• How the Panama Canal Got Its Groove Back – Priceonomics
• Treasury Official Urges Solution for Puerto Rico – NY Times

Terra Incognita

• Our Latest Survey Shows Property Siren Still Sounding Loud – DFA, Martin North
• Is It Time For A Risk-Free Interest Rate Benchmark In Australia? – DFA, Martin North…good question to ask…
• Australia’s biggest banks pump billions into fossil fuels despite climate pledges – Guardian
• Why public sector corporations need an independent watchdog – The Mandarin
• Woolworths swings to $973m loss, appoints new CEO – Fairfax
• Woolworths counts the cost of Masters blunder, with food business under fire – The Conversation
• The end of 2%: Australia gets serious about its defence budget – The Conversation…well worth thinking about…
• Defence white paper: an extra $29.9 billion spending over a decade – The Conversation…a key question is how this gets used: furthering local capability or not?…
• Will house prices ‘collapse’ if negative gearing is changed? – The Conversation
• Big four accounting firms avoid scrutiny in multinational tax avoidance – The Conversation
• Defence White Paper 2016: Dependency on fuel imports ‘a risk’ amid South China Sea tensions – ABC…a profound strategic risk…
• Finally we have a real tax reform debate – ABC, Verrender
• The great unsettlement that is dogging Turnbull – ABC…good read…
• Trade surplus for January as wood, dairy and fruit exports grow – NZ Herald
• Property Bubble Bets Help Spur Surge in Aussie Bank Bond Risk – Bloomberg
• Holden to axe hundreds of staff in Adelaide with the end of Cruze car production in October – ABC
• PM leaves poll door ajar as Brough quits politics – Fairfax
• Pulling Up the Property Ladder to Keep the Young Off – Bloomberg
• Call for rent controls, ‘just cause’ for evictions – NZ Herald
• Wages have stalled and the Coalition is worried about bracket creep? – Guardian
• Capex survey: prepare for more rate cuts – Callam Pickering
• The timing is right to once again ‘go for growth’ – ABC, Jericho
• Super swindle: the hidden tricks draining your retirement nest egg – Fairfax
• Mortgage brokers AFG and Pepper reject risky lending claims – Fairfax
• Holden to axe 400 jobs this year in South Australia – Fairfax
• Investors burnt as more than 1000 Perth warehouses stand vacant – AFR
• Labor to ramp up debt to pay for major projects – Fairfax…Vic government needs to generate growth somewhere…
• As U.S. shale exports begin, Australia readies world’s costliest gas project – Reuters
• BHP Billiton investors sue in U.S. over Brazil dam disaster – Reuters
• Bid by Belgian entrepreneur to take over Holden plant collapses – Guardian
• Australian gallery identifies looted Indian treasures – Nikkei Asian Review
• ‘Big short’ panic was a war by hedge funds on the banks – AFR, Joye 

Commodities

• Don’t bank on a toasted U.S. corn crop just yet – Reuters
• BHP’s boss faces $11 billion dilemma as prices languish – Reuters
• World’s oil bosses eyeing more pain try to look past 2016 – Reuters
• U.S. exports of LNG mark a turning point in the market – CNBC
• African oil exports seen suffering steep fall – Platts
• The Disunited Kingdom and what it could mean for commodities – Platts
• Zimbabwe orders diamond mines shut, says not nationalising – Mineweb
• US wheat area to hit 46-year low as crop price outlook darkens – Agrimoney
• World corn stocks to stay high in 2016-17, says IGC – Agrimoney
• Amid Deflated Prices, Oil Industry Shake-Up Looms – IB Times
• Report Shows That 35% of Oil Companies Could Face Bankruptcy – Time
• Material improvement in steel prices unlikely – Mineweb

Capital Markets

• A lesson from the contrarian greats: Fight the pro-cyclical wave – Globe and Mail
• In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator – Philosophical Economics
• Japan in yen policy crisis – Euromoney
• UBS Derivatives Team Explains “Where The Asset Bubbles Are” – ValueWalk
• Trade of Decade or Value Trap? Emerging Markets Debate Heats Up – Bloomberg
• This is why you can expect another global stock market meltdown – Market Watch
• Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero – Market Watch
• Negative rates and FTPL – John Cochrane
• The economic nightmare of ‘zombie’ companies – Nikkei Asian Review
• The Brazilian Bond Blowout – Bloomberg
• Ugly, Scary and Not Getting Better – Bloomberg
• Dollar Dominant in Yuan’s Basket-Peg System: China Central Bank Chief – Bloomberg

Global macro

• Citi: Here Comes a Global Recession – Bloomberg
• World trade records biggest reversal since crisis – FT.com
• THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION – Pieria…good read…
• Helicopter drops might not be far away – FT.com, Wolf…very good read…
• Mark Carney issues stark warning on global growth as storm clouds gather – Telegraph
• Energy price war spreads to gas as US shale storms global market, stalks Russia – Telegraph, AEP
• There’s much talk of helicopter drops. Please let’s not go there – Telegraph
• Global Finance Leaders Meet as Economic Skies Darken – NY Times
• Liquidity, Kill Switches Are the Talk of the Currency Universe – Bloomberg
• Global Finance Leaders Meet as Economic Skies Darken – NY Times
• Capital control guidelines top agenda – Nikkei Asian Review
• Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis – Bloomberg
• Third of global firms now hit by cybercrime: Survey – CNBC
• The US Election and the Global Economy – Project-Syndicate
• Our broken economy doesn’t need more stimulus – SCMP
• The limit of central bank power is politics, not economics – FT.com
• The impotency of central banks – Bruegel
• OECD Data Sums Up the ‘Repaired’ Advanced Economies State of Disaster – Constantin Gurdgiev
• Bank of England chief accuses G20 of failing to reform to boost growth – Guardian
• Laid Bare in Shanghai: G-20 Tensions Over How to Spur Growth – Bloomberg

…and furthermore…

• How Do the Economic Elites Get the Idea That They ‘Deserve’ More? Lessons from Game Theory – Evonomics, Varoufakis
• Beijing now has more billionaires than New York – Telegraph
• These Ten Countries Are The Most Globally Connected – Bloomberg
• Is this the future of work? Scientists predict which jobs will still be open to humans in 2035 – Guardian
• What’s Really at Stake in the Apple Encryption Debate – ProPublica
• The single woman is a force in society—and a ghost in our culture – Macleans
• The Return of Moral Economy? – MarctoMarket
• Tax Reform Is a Way to Level the Global Playing Field – Peterson Institute
• You are the robots – The dark side of digital finance – The Long & Short…very good read…
• Uber and the economic impact of sharing economy platforms – Bruegel
• Healthier workers are those not made sick by their job – FT.com
• Slave to the algorithm? How music fans can reclaim their playlists from Spotify – Guardian
• Rethinking the future of plastics – McKinsey
• Digital globalization: The new era of global flows – McKinsey…good read…
• The Scold: Mr. Money Mustache’s retirement (sort of) plan. – New Yorker…good read- I’d have a beer with the guy…
• Psychopathic, Narcissistic Machiavellians: The traits that make con artists—and stockbrokers and lawyers—tick.  – Slate
• Obesity linked to ‘worse memory’ – BBC
• Why sleeping in could make you a better worker – BBC
• TTIP AND “FREE TRADE”: MYTH PEDDLED BY CORPORATE INTERESTS – Pieria…good read…
• Retirement planning isn’t really about how you invest – Brookings
• The Fairness Factor – The Atlantic
• What Computer Games Taught Me About Urban Planning – The Atlantic
• Sexual reproduction: Plucking rubies from the rubbish – Economist
• Keynes’s General Theory at 80 – Project-Syndicate
• The Problem With Evidence-Based Policies – Project-Syndicate
• The rich get richer: Should the wealthy get a tax break for endowing elite universities? – LA Times
• Carbon inequities, climate change, and complementary solutions – Washington Center for Equitable Growth
• Who’s Disrupting Whom? An Opportunity for Startups and Government – Economonitor
• Pancreatic cancer ‘breakthrough’ hailed – CNBC
• Student debt and retirement saving don’t add up – CBS…no they don’t…
• Anti-ageing breakthrough as scientists find enzyme for youthful skin – Telegraph