The elusive future boom in non-mining investment

The CBA economics team has produced a good report today examining why Australia’s non-mining business investment has failed to launch as promised by the RBA:

For the past few years, economists and policymakers have assumed that a lift in non-mining business investment was forthcoming. A trawl through RBA documents and speeches shows that policy officials have been anticipating a lift in non-mining investment for a few years. And yet despite incredibly low interest rates and a significantly lower AUD, the lift remains elusive. It has felt a lot like waiting for Godot. Fortunately, however, there has been a greater than expected pickup in services activity which has generated a fall in the unemployment rate despite weak non-mining capex. This has supported the economy and employment growth over the past two years. But for the productive capacity of the economy to lift over the longer term, a lift in business investment outside of the resources sector is required.

In this note we ask the question why non-mining business investment has been so weak.