Weekend Links 12-13 December 2015

Ocean Blue, Lorne, Arthur Streeton, 1921, Geelong Art Gallery 

China

• China to Track Renminbi Based on Basket of Currencies – NY Times…another way to devalue…
• China crackdown nets ex-Ping An Securities chief – SCMP
• Is China’s Warren Buffett, Guo Guangchang, under arrest? Trading of stocks suspended as Fosun chairman ‘uncontactable’ – SCMP
• Guo Guangchang, ‘China’s Warren Buffett’, goes missing amid corruption crackdown – Guardian
• China Ghost Town Developer May Default on Bonds Next Week – Bloomberg
• Guo Guangchang: Fosun Group has ‘lost contact’ with chairman of China’s largest private firm – ABC
• China’s weakening renminbi poses stability threat – FT.com
• Regulators to Curb Stock Volatility with Circuit Breaker Mechanism – Caixin
• Disappearances in China Highlight Ruling Party Detention System – Bloomberg...it does seem a lot of powerful people are being pulled in or going missing…
• China anti-counterfeiting agents make many of the fakes themselves – report – Guardian
• Privacy, Internet Issues Cloud Credit Scoring – Caixin
• Tax cut buoys sales but market concerns persist – Nikkei Asian Review
• Cooking the books: Government officials in China’s ‘rust belt’ falsified economic figures – SCMP
• Head of Agricultural Bank of China Steps Down Amid Corruption Probe – Caixin
• Executives of Murky Internet Finance Start-up Arrested – Caixin
• Macau could face crackdown as Beijing gets tough on abuse of China UnionPay system – SCMP
• PetroChina plans US$47 billion gas pipeline sale as part of Beijing’s energy sector reforms – SCMP
• Regulators Ready to Defog P2P Lending Sector – Caixin
• Rail Cargo Services Continue to Lose Steam – Caixin
• Mao Zedong money raises eyebrows: rare error means Chinese leader has two left eyebrows on 100-yuan banknote – SCMP...what a classic…
• Gaming the system: China steel exporters look for tax advantage – Reuters
• “Let’s Just Hope Shipping Isn’t Telling the Real Story of China” – Zero Hedge
• Is everything going wrong for China? – Prospect, Magnus
• China Needs Layoffs, Not Just Jobs – Bloomberg
• China’s top bankers who “disappeared,” were detained, or died unnaturally this year – Quartz
• Monetary easing seen by year end – China Daily
• A Divergence that Gives China a Headache – Marc to Market
• Why China’s Reserves Fell $87.2 bln in November – Marc to Market
• Will bubble finally burst in 2016? – Nikkei Asian Review
• China Swallows Its Mine Debt Bomb – Bloomberg

 Asia

• Mongolia’s ‘next chapter’ is infrastructure – Nikkei Asian Review
• Fridge designed for India’s rural poor is really cool – SCMP
• Place your bets: Singapore, Malaysia casinos more attractive than Macau, analysts say – SCMP
• Dip in long-term price outlook could shake BOJ policy – Nikkei Asian Review
• Clouds gather over Turkish economic outlook – Intellinews
• India cautious on offshore rupee growth – Euromoney
• India close to $15B high-speed rail deal with Japan – CNBC
• Middle East liquidity crunch starts to bite – Euromoney
• Gulf Arab Leaders Push For EU-Style ‘Middle East Union’ At GCC Summit – IB Times…could be interesting…

Europe

• Renzi faces political backlash over Italian banks’ rescue – FT.com
• Sanctions over jet downing hit Turkish economy – Nikkei Asian Review
• Foreign Investors Tiptoe Through Minefield of Greek Banking System – NY Times
• Bank consolidation: Europe’s missing link – Euromoney
• Swiss National Bank keeps its powder dry – FT.com
• Italy Needs a Cure for Its Bad-Debt Headache – Bloomberg
• Italian institutional reforms: will this time be different? – Bruegel
• The remarkable case of Spanish immigration – Bruegel
• German retirement system leads to pensioner poverty – DW
• Germany to close pay gap with transparent wage structures – DW
• Russia is so fed-up with Western credit rating agencies, it has launched its own – Telegraph
• France is heading for a wheat overload – Reuters
• Only scapegoats seen found for billion-dollar bank frauds in Ukraine and Moldova – Intellinews

United Kingdom

• A radical solution for England’s housing crisis – FT.com, Wolf
• Groundhog Day for UK economy with wearyingly familiar trade figures – Guardian
• Oil price slump will mean Bank of England keeps interest rates low for longer – Telegraph
• UK’s trade deficit in goods with EU hits record high – Telegraph
• Plastic fantastic: debit card spending soars in Britain – Guardian
• Tobacco companies challenge legality of UK plain packaging rules – Guardian
• 750,000 families with children ‘struggling with serious debt’ – Guardian…and when rates rise?…
• Recently retired households have greater share of UK wealth than under-45s – Guardian
• Some unpleasant Brexit econometrics – VoxEU
• WHAT KIND OF RECOVERY IS THIS, MR OSBORNE? – Pieria
• Christine Lagarde warns Brexit vote could trigger economic uncertainty – Telegraph

 United States

• Federal Reserve rate call: five questions – FT.com
• Mortgage rates move higher following upbeat jobs report – Washington Post
• Compromise Bill Would Give President More Muscle Against Unfair Trade Practices – NY Times
• Economic Growth Migrates Toward the Coasts – WSJ
• Look Who’s Spending Less: Higher-Earning, Older Americans – WSJ
• Middle-class families, pillar of the American dream, are no longer in the majority, study finds – LA Times
• Why you should cheer a Federal Reserve rate hike – Market Watch
• US import prices extend decline on cheaper oil – CNBC
• Zombies appear in U.S. oilfields as crude plumbs new lows – Reuters
• What comparing single family vs. multi-unit housing tells us about the economy – XE.com
• The Future’s so Bright … – Calculated Risk
• Calpers Can’t Eliminate Risk by Ignoring It – Bloomberg
• Interest rates in America: Buckle up – Economist
• Most Americans Aren’t Middle Class Anymore – FiveThirtyEight
• U.S. to Stand Out Amid Limited Global Growth in 2016: Merrill Lynch – Think Advisor
• EB-5 Immigrant Investor Visa Could Face Big Changes If Lawmakers Have Their Way – IB Times

 Americas

• Free rent for a month? Calgary, Edmonton landlords try to woo renters as prices fall – Financial Post
• A New Day in Colombia – Economonitor
• Farming Flourishes Amid Brazil’s Fiscal Mess – Agweb
• Argentine banks prepare for new Macri era – Euromoney
• Argentina’s Long, Long History of Underperformance – Bloomberg
• Canada tightens mortgage rules to help cool blistering Toronto, Vancouver housing markets – Financial Post
• New mortgage rules to hit Calgary hard, economist says – Financial Post
• OSFI takes aim at banks’ residential mortgage capital requirements to keep pace with rising house prices, household debt – Financial Post

Terra Numberwangus

• Leaders sound alarm on budget as economists predict billions wiped from revenue – Fairfax…everybody brace, this is going to hurt…
• Why it is time for a ‘no BS’ pledge when it comes to MYEFO forecasts – The Conversation…but bullshit is what we will get…
• Australia’s Budget Seen Deteriorating as Growth Disappoints – Bloomberg, Heath
• Australia’s innovation problem explained in 10 charts – The Conversation…and still they overlook house prices…
• Kidman sell-off: Anna Creek off the market for foreign buyers amid national security concerns – ABC
• Victorian house prices: how much has yours grown? – Fairfax
• Urban jungle: radical ways to improve our city life – Fairfax
• Malcolm Turnbull’s former employer Goldman Sachs tips early election – Fairfax
• What would make a GST increase ‘fair’? – The Conversation
• Turnbull’s ‘ideas boom’ overlooks our largest group of potential entrepreneurs – The Conversation
• Why Turnbull’s ‘Ideas Boom’ will not bridge the gap between research and business – The Conversation
• Goldman Says Australia Faces Tougher Growth Challenge in 2016 – Bloomberg, Heath
• What Malcolm Turnbull can learn from Justin Trudeau’s spending plans – The Conversation
• Simple, fair and efficient: four ways to make our tax system work the way it is supposed to – The Conversation
• Differences with states on tax reform could be ‘irreconcilable’: Morrison – The Conversation
• Confusion reigns in options for Australia’s misuse of market power laws – The Conversation
• Australian software company Atlassian soars 32% on US$5.8bn Nasdaq float – Guardian
• Chinese buyers ready to return – NZ Herald
• Now’s the time to fix your home-loan rate, says expert – NZ Herald
• Baby boomers ill-prepared for retirement – NZ Herald
• Basel 4 plan to free up capital for regional banks – Fairfax
• Glencore may shut Murrin Murrin nickel mine in WA – Fairfax
• Jobs boom is a Sydney story – Fairfax, Pascoemeter
• Cattle King’s Ranch Down Under to Be Carved Up for Overseas Sale – Bloomberg
• Oh The Environments! – Idiot Tax…another fine read from the idiot…
• Defence procurement and the new submarine – Pearls & Irritations, Stanford…very perceptive read…
• Tax Reform and Future Federal-State Relations – Pearls & Irritations, Keating… excellent analysis…
• The policy scandal of a $11b taxpayer subsidy to private health insurance. – Pearls & Irritations, Menadue…he is 100% correct – private health insurance in Australia is a joke…
• Youth unemployment is not a problem to be fixed with labour flexibility – Guardian, Jericho
• Chevron sheds 1,000 Barrow Island jobs ahead of schedule – ABC
• Iron ore sheds 4.3pc on week, ending at record low – Fairfax…and our major exports are, iron ore, coal, gas and gold (for those wondering)….

  Commodities

  • US oil settles at $35.62 a barrel, plunges over 10% for week – CNBC ...we are here, before Christmas…
  • Oil producers offset fall in prices by raising output – Reuters, John Kemp…very good read…
  • IEA Sees Oil Glut Lasting to Late 2016 as OPEC Keeps Pumping – Bloomberg
  • Woodside gives green light to $2 billion North West Shelf gas development – ABC
  • OPEC points to larger 2016 oil surplus as group’s output hits multi-year high – Reuters
  • How much oil is OPEC pumping? 900,000 barrels a day more than the world needs – Financial Post
  • Strippers Suffering From Low Oil Prices – Economonitor
  • Ignore the Fed when it comes to gold – Market Watch
  • Iron Ore in Worst Run Since ’08 as China’s Steel Output May Drop – Bloomberg
  • ‘Unrelenting’ supply hits oil demand growth: IEA – CNBC
  • OPEC predicts rivals’ supply to contract in 2016 – CNBC
  • Global sugar supply tightens as Brazil cash discounts shrink – Reuters
  • Diamonds are forever; is Anglo American? – Reuters
  • Gas prices finally break below last winter’s low – Bonddad
  • Don’t let China iron buying fool you, demand is bad – Xie – Mineweb
  • Copper imports by China jump to 22-month high in November – Mineweb
  • Paris Climate Talks 2015: Dark Days Ahead For The Coal Sector As Nations Close In On A Deal – IB Times
  • Oil’s Flabby New Year – Bloomberg
  • Chop Chop For Commodities – Bloomberg…ugly…

  Capital markets

  • High-Yield Fund Blocks Investor Withdrawals – NY Times
  • Should the Fed Subsidize Banks? – Peterson Institute
  • Leading banks to introduce faster international money transfers – Nikkei Asian Review
  • Small fish, big prize: The market makers out to eat the banks’ lunch – Euromoney
  • US treasuries: HFTs – to USTs and beyond? – Euromoney
  • Banking: Providing liquidity to liquidity providers – Euromoney
  • Why a gold and oil crash won’t scare prudent retirement investors – Market Watch
  • China yuan falls to lowest since August 2011 versus dollar – CNBC
  • Bank capital zealots hang up their hairshirts – Reuters
  • SEC Chases ETF Boogeyman: Geared Funds – ETF.com
  • Currency Traders’ Bad Year Gets Worse as Central Banks Surprise – Bloomberg
  • All Developed Bond Markets Gain in 2015 in Face of Fed Rate Move – Bloomberg

   Global Macro

  • Today’s Productivity Paradox – Project-Syndicate, Eichengreen…very good read…
  • The Fed’s Painted Itself Into The Most Dangerous Corner In History – Why There Will Soon Be A Riot In The Casino – Zero Hedge…worth bearing in mind…
  • Oil Price Meltdown Heralds New Wave of Destabilization – Economonitor
  • Fed to guide on rate hike path with fresh language, forecasts – Reuters
  • Jacques Attali warns of corporate debt bomb, possible WWIII – Nikkei Asian Review
  • Global regulators join crackdown on buy-to-let – Telegraph…and Australia?…
  • Rand-exposed stocks rocked by ousting of South African finance minister – Telegraph…another major commodity exporter with political instability…
  • Nagorno-Karabakh says Azerbaijan using tanks to shell them for first time in 21 years – Intellinews…this is looking increasingly ugly….
  • Glencore shares surge as investors cheer debt-cutting plan – Telegraph
  • Glencore’s Ivan Glasenberg eyes China rebound, but slashes debt just in case – Telegraph, AEP
  • The WTO’s Nairobi talks and the multi-billion dollar trade agreement you’ve never heard of – The Conversation
  • Don’t mourn the death of the commodities “super-cycle” – Telegraph
  • Schengen and European Security – Project-Syndicate
  • Islamic State oil is going to Assad, some to Turkey, U.S. official says – CNBC
  • The curious case of ISIS oil moving through Turkey – Market Watch
  • Brazil, Russia currency weakness claims an unlikely victim – CNBC
  • More jobs by the day—but why? – Prospect, Kaletsky
  • World employment and social outlook 2015. The changing nature of jobs – RWER
  • Aircraft orders slow as cycle peaks; potential for production impact seen – Reuters
  • Designing fiscal policy for steady, enduring growth – VoxEU
  • International macroeconomic policy coordination – VoxEU
  • Grantham: 12 Economic Facts to Ruin Investors’ 2016 – Think Advisor…yuck…
  • Global Macro, Breadth & Energy Sector – ShortSideofLong
  • DRY BULK ATLANTIC: PANAMAX OWNERS CONSIDER LAY-UPS ON WEAK 2016 OUTLOOK – Platts

   …and furthermore…

  • VW Says Emissions Cheating Was Not a One-Time Error – NY Times
  • Sewage sludge to go up for sale and could help power your home – Telegraph
  • He Blew the Whistle at JPMorgan Chase, Then Came the Blowback – NY Times
  • A Middle Ground Between Contract Worker and Employee – NY Times
  • A Learning Advance in Artificial Intelligence Rivals Human Abilities – NY Times
  • This Houston energy company is giving every one of its 1,400 employees a US$100,000 bonus – Financial Post
  • Ford to spend $4.5bn on electric car range – FT.com
  • When Inequality Kills – Project-Syndicate, Stiglitz
  • The Evolution of Work – Project-Syndicate
  • End of the road draws near for Land Rover Defender – Guardian
  • Blatter to ‘abandon football’ when term ends – Nikkei Asian Review...should he be allowed to go in his terms?…
  • Watlington hoard of Viking silver casts light on Alfred the Great era – Guardian
  • A day at ‘the gulag’: what it’s like to work at Sports Direct’s warehouse – Guardian
  • Champagne Taittinger to produce English sparkling wine in Kent – Guardian
  • ‘Fail early, fail often’ mantra forgets entrepreneurs fail to learn – The Conversation
  • Can Cyber Warfare Be Deterred? – Project-Syndicate
  • Hunt for mysterious Bitcoin founder focuses on Australia man – CBS
  • Is college worth it? Goldman Sachs says maybe not – CBS
  • Truck drivers must now log their hours electronically – CBS...good…
  • Wages, profits, and inequality – RWER
  • The blatant absence of empirical fit of macroeconomic models – RWER…there is some bull in some economic models that’s for sure…
  • News Corp. Won’t Face Corporate Charges in Phone-Hacking Probe – Bloomberg…a disgrace…
  • The Bitcoin Founder Can Apparently Run, and Hide – Bloomberg
  • The World’s Smartest Bad Investors – Bloomberg...good read…
  • When Can Bond Traders Lie to Their Customers? – Bloomberg.…I thought it was always?…
  • The choice of numeraire matters when calculating world GDP growth – VoxEU
  • Highly educated women no longer have fewer kids – VoxEU
  • Economists: Buckle Up, Climate Change Is Going to Be a Rough Ride – Slate
  • Exploding hoverboards expose the total lack of global manufacturing standards – Quartz
  • The 21st-century gold rush where people work in 19th-century conditions – Quartz
  • Could Morocco’s megaplant revive dreams of Saharan solar? – DW
  • Low wages draw international textile companies to Ethiopia – DW
  • Better Schools, Better Economies – The Atlantic
  • When Will Labor Laws Catch Up With the Gig Economy? – The Atlantic…good question…
  • Magazine claims Australian entrepreneur is man behind bitcoin – Japan Times
  • The global economic costs from climate change may be worse than expected – Brookings
  • For Immigrants, America Is Still More Welcoming Than Europe – NY Times