It’s a billion dollar question and Liberum Capital has a nice interactive to help answer it. Here’s the credit metrics at today’s spot prices:
And on MB price assumptions for next year:
And with various emergency deleveraging measures:
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The answer, then, is the credit downgrade cycle begins next year, at least according to Liberum and MB. Once that starts, of course, it’s all downhill as the cost of debt spikes.
If you ever wanted to pull Ivan’s Glasenberg’s strings, now’s your chance.
