From UBS:
Diversifieds: All else equal, our BHP & RIO earnings estimates for CY 16 would be 70% and 45% lower, respectively, under a spot scenario. At spot, S32’s CY 16 earnings would decline to a loss of US$138m. Iron ore: The spot iron ore price is 13% below our CY 16 forecast and combined with FX implies a 60% downgrade to FMG’s FY 16E earnings. Coal: WHC would turn loss-making in FY 16E at spot, with NPAT of -A$21m. Alumina: Under spot, AWC’s 2016 earnings decrease to -US$76m. Mineral sands: Iluka’s 2016 earnings decrease 18% to A$201m. Copper: SFR and OZL would be on a PE of 13x and +100x respectively in FY/CY 16E, at spot. SFR’s P/NPV under spot is 1.2x to OZL at 1.3x. Nickel: The spot nickel price is 28% below our CY 16 forecast and implies a 116% reduction to WSA’s FY 16 earnings. Gold: The spot gold price is 14% below our CY 16 forecast, but when combined with spot FX, results in a 74% decrease to NCM’s FY 16 earnings and a 34% decrease to EVN’s earnings.
