Housing finance shows there’s still life in the bubble

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By Leith van Onselen

Today’s housing finance data for August, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted a massive rise in owner-occupied finance commitments, with investor finance commitments tapering only slightly.

According to the ABS, total owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) surged by a seasonally adjusted 5.2% over the month to be up by 9.3% over the year (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_9661 Oct. 09 11.44 ScreenHunter_9662 Oct. 09 11.45

By comparison, the value of investor finance commitments fell by 0.4% in August, but were up by 12.0% over the year, with a flat trend (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_9663 Oct. 09 11.47

The share of total loans going to investors (excluding refinancings) also fell for the first time in nearly three years, falling to 51.3% in August from 51.5% last month:

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Meanwhile, first home buyer (FHB) owner-occupied demand remained tepid in August at just 15.7% of total owner-occupied finance commitments after declining by 2.4% in August and rising by just 0.3% over the year (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_9665 Oct. 09 11.51 ScreenHunter_9666 Oct. 09 11.51

Meanwhile, the average loan size jumped 2.3% in August and was up 15.4% over the year, and is in a strong uptrend on a 3-month moving average basis:

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Finally, the below chart shows the pick-up in owner-occupied housing demand, which seems to be offsetting the stalling of investor demand:

ScreenHunter_9667 Oct. 09 11.56
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It looks like there’s still some life in the bubble!

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.