by Chris Becker
The 2nd quarter balance of payments was just released this morning and the current account balance blew out to $19 billion, almost double the prior quarter’s $10.7 billion and well above expectations.
Significantly, net exports as a percentage of GDP is now an even bigger drag, at -0.6% instead of the expected -0.3% drawdown.
Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show that in seasonally adjusted, current price terms, the current account deficit increased $5,532m (41 per cent) to $19,033m in the June quarter 2015. Exports of goods and services fell $4,816m (six per cent) and imports of goods and services rose $44m. The primary income deficit rose $715m (nine per cent).
In seasonally adjusted, chain volume terms, the net goods and services surplus fell $2,334m (28 per cent) to $5,987m in the June quarter 2015. This is expected to detract 0.6 percentage points from growth in the June quarter 2015 volume measure of Gross Domestic Product.
Sleepwalking or just stumbling drunk into recession?