The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research consumer confidence index rose marginally in the week ended 30 August, rising by 0.3 points to 113.3 to be tracking a whisker above the long-run average (see next chart).
The small rise in confidence was driven largely by a 3.9% lift in respondents views on their financial situation compared to a year ago and a 1.8% rise in perceptions about economic conditions over the next five years, partly offset by a 4.9% decline in economic conditions next year.
ANZ chief economist, Warren Hogan, believes that average confidence is likely to persist:
“The impact on the Australian economy from recent international events and concerns about China’s growth outlook are hard to determine at this stage. Australia’s ability to withstand any hit to global activity is limited by the fact that the economy is already battling several headwinds: soft commodity prices, weak wages growth, and subdued non-mining business investment. In this environment consumer confidence could consolidate around current levels, but is unlikely to see a sustained rise from here”.
The below chart plots the most recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index against the latest ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence index:
Nothing much going on.
