by Chris Becker
Following AMPs Shane Oliver call for a 60c AUDUSD by the end of 2016, Deutsche Banks Adam Boyton has beared up even further, calling for a sub-60c level.
More from Fairfax:
In early February 2014, when the Aussie traded at about US90¢, Mr Boyton warned a “benign collapse” sparked by falling commodity prices, declining mining investment and reduced government spending could take the currency down to US66¢ by December – a prediction that at the time was a brave minority call but one that now looks startlingly prescient.
Mr Boyton is now saying the dollar will keep falling to US60¢ by the end of 2016, and further down the road possibly even past that into the US50¢ range.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the Australian dollar is printed with a ‘five’ handle in the next three years,” Mr Boyton said.
“As far as reaching a bottom, I don’t think we’ll know what that is until Chinese growth picks up, and our economy adjusts from the mining boom enough the RBA will be considering raising rates. All of those things seem quite some distance away, and I don’t think the Australian dollar is likely to rise until at least 2017 or 2018.”
That’s two more years – at least – of shorting opportunities or at the very least to hedge your portfolio – and your house from the falls to come.
For mind, I see the mid 40s as even probability on an overshoot with 50-55 cent range the historical norm with 60c on the upside at the most:
